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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

andersongordon 691 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 29, 2015 12:18 AM Member since: Jul 11, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Google to compete with SPY?

    by vonpezel Mar 27, 2015 8:02 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 29, 2015 12:18 AM Flag

    If I was going to incorporate machine vision technology I wouldn't go to Google or J&J, I would form an alliance with Cognex. They are by far the leaders in this technology.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Business Update Tomorrow Morning

    by brunoq_78242 Mar 25, 2015 4:45 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 26, 2015 7:12 AM Flag

    Someone bought 3000 shares last night at $0.70@. I too will be listening today. Thanks for posting.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Update??????? Anybody out there

    by getitdone111 Mar 18, 2015 5:02 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 26, 2015 7:10 AM Flag

    Getitdone is it possible they are listening to you. I wonder if they follow our blogs.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Macular Degeneration - OPTTX System

    by buzzybob Mar 21, 2015 8:12 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 21, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Thanks for the research. Having a group of fellows like you (I assume your a fellow, unless your from the south of the Mason-Dixon line...Ha, Ha) sharing and probing and questioning is both stimulating and helps solidify and verify my thoughts and modeling of Novadaq.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Macular Degeneration - OPTTX System

    by buzzybob Mar 21, 2015 8:12 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 21, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    Good find Buzzy. I haven't heard anything and they don't break it out in their releases or talk about it. Perhaps someone should contact them.
    Questions:
    1)What is the market potential
    2)What is Novadaq's plan for penetrating this market
    3)What would be the possible revenue per patient
    4)Where are they on their plan

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 20, 2015 1:41 AM Flag

    Von, I went back and listened to the conference again. Clearly the 50%/25%/25% comment was about the LifeCell accounts and not the marketing staff in general. We'll get more clarification in a month or so. We are probably entering the 30 day blackout until the Q1 results are released. Good news would be good. Sounds like one of Yogi Berra's lines.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Mar 18, 2015 8:24 AM Flag

    Volumes are low, the paucity of news from management and the pre-announced 20%-30% range of growth for the first quarter has demand for increased holdings of Novadaq like deer in the headlights. It is easy to shoot a deer when he is standing still. All who wish to own a piece of this wonderful company, now is a very good time to build a position. But if you can't stand to see your share price drop even below your purchase price, wait until the news of progress comes out. You will have to pay a few dollars more per share than now but you will be able to sleep at night with the price higher than when you purchased it.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by vonpezel Mar 11, 2015 9:24 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 13, 2015 6:19 AM Flag

    I thought the split was referenced to the takeover of the SpyElite accounts not the entire sales force. I'll listen again and correct my comment if I heard it wrong. Thanks Von.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by vonpezel Mar 11, 2015 9:24 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Mar 12, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    No indication of positive expectations for Q1 from the Barclays Healthcare conference. The only new interesting comment was Arun happened to be in a hospital last week and a doctor showed him how he was using the Novadaq machine to diagnose frostbite.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    VOLUME

    by tencentcordikka Feb 28, 2015 9:57 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 28, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    I don't think so Ten cent. Probably a new investor has decided a $0.50 - $0.60 cent per share investment in a company with an IP that in the right hands could be worth $2.50 -$3.00 per share is worth the gamble. Even a doctor who has experienced the new stapler cutter could decide to put down $200k and buy a 400k shares based on his favorable experience. In $ terms it was only $250k that came into the market yesterday, but if it continues...it very well could mark the end of the beginning for Cardica. Time will tell.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    2014 CC Opinions

    by gopointers2 Feb 25, 2015 5:31 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 28, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    Thanks for the kind words of encouragement. It's for folks like you that I try to add some insight and elucidation on companies like Novadaq. If my sense of this company is correct it will be a major contributor to folks retirement portfolios. I did the same thing for KLAC back in the early 90's and ISRG in the early 2000's. God has been gracious to me and allowed me to be introduced to these wonderful companies while they were still in their infancy. True paradigm shifters all.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Time to short

    by ntlslp Feb 27, 2015 2:15 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 28, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    ISRG is buying, you are selling, there is a market. With the new XI machine, general surgeries are now more accessible than ever for the underpenetrated general surgery field. This is being born out in the number and ratio of new surgeons. The number of new surgeons per day hit a low late last year and is now picking up. Of those, the percent of general surgeons is showing an increasing trend.
    (numbers are only for domestic surgeons)
    Quarter: Q1 14, Q2 14, Q3 14, Q4 14, Q1 15(pro rated),
    Surgeons per day: 188, 174, 129, 112, 147,
    General Surg Ratio: 41%, 50%, 44%, 53%, 55%,

    This bodes well for the future as the general surgeons take up robotic minimally invasive surgery. Couple this with the anticipated Japanese approval of all surgeries for insurance coverage in Q1 2016 and you have a pressure building for a new growth trend in ISRG. Currently only prostectomy is reimbursed in Japan. If I were on the ISRG board I would buy back 5-10% of my shares at the current price of $500 to $550 per share and then sit back and watch the renewed growth revive the stock price to $600-$700 range in 2016-17. But then I'm not on the board. (:-).

    GSA

  • Reply to

    2014 CC Opinions

    by gopointers2 Feb 25, 2015 5:31 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 27, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    I must have subliminally had the little energizer bunny on my mind. Yes there is a link between Novadaq and the little pink bunny...they both will keep going long after the competition quits!

    Duracell....DermACELL....Duracell....

    Go Novadaq.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    2014 CC Opinions

    by gopointers2 Feb 25, 2015 5:31 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 27, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    I did not respond because I was trying to rebuild and calibrate my model for Novadaq. There are many currents in this model that have very little historical data points to model. In addition they are not linear, independent interactions. The Duracell product will interact with SpyElite sales and recurring revenues. How strong will the feedback loop be? As stated in the CC this is not a simple model. Sorry for the delay in responding. For one aspect look at my response to the SpyElite "bulge" possible response above. A similarly complex analysis is required for Duracell, for Pinpoint, for Luna, and what happens if the FILM study is a "knockout" in the field of cancerous Lymph Nod identification (as I suspect it will be)?

    Bottom line..this company has so many very very positives going for it that as Arun stated in the CC "2015 will be the year of execution".

    GSA

  • Reply to

    2014 CC Opinions

    by gopointers2 Feb 25, 2015 5:31 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 27, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    I came to the same conclusion. All else being equal LifeCell marketed to 30 hospital systems and expected sales in the month of December from a good portion of them. Enough so that they negotiated it into the contract release agreement. That means there are 30 sales ready to pop. If Novadaq, which knows which hospitals they are...how else would they be off limits for the month of December?, targets those hospitals they should be able to close a majority of them. At $200k per system, that would be somewhere between $3.0 million and $4.0 million in Q1. If one subtracts the quantity sold in Q1 2014 (Est 5--"15 sold in the first 3 quarters" from CC), and one figures 50% revenue sharing during 2014 that should be ~$2.5 to $3.5 million in additional revenue from Spy Elite in Q1. Why Arun has only 20% revenue growth for Q1 is not clear. I expect an upside bump. But being that we are 2/3 thru Q1 Arun may have knowledge about other factors influencing these pipeline sales. We should all know in 2 months or so.

    One other note: the response of institutions lately is that they sense blood in the water and have been building their holdings...do they have contacts with the hospitals in question? If I was a Fidelity I would send boots on the ground to talk to hospital administrators from the big hospital systems to glean their intentions before buying 15% of the shares!!!!

    If this hypothesis is close to being reality, the 4.4 million shorted shares will be squeezed. If 87% of the shares are being held by institutions, that only leaves 7.2 million non-institutional shares--take out 2 million held by management and there are precious few shares left for the shorter to pursue. The graph of yesterday fits this hypothesis. As the price rises, the shorts will face margin calls in the next few days and the price could break $18@. I don't expect this, nor do I want my readers to base purchases on this, but it is fun to think about.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    couple of points

    by e11ndofwar Feb 17, 2015 2:11 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 18, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    Old Chinese Proverb:
    Man who constantly pulls up turnip to see if it is growing has stomach that growls.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 16, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    Yes that was my take away from the last conference call and the video...Cardica is in the process of designing "engineering" limits on the stapler-cutter. This would prevent surgeons from using the instrument outside of the tighter "allowable" tissue thickness range. Training and acceptance by surgeons is required and good, but if the surgeon cannot use the instrument outside of its effective range because of engineered limits it makes the instrument "idiot proof" if that is possible.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    YEMEN Falls, Libya Falls, .. is Saudi next

    by gideon_s_sword Feb 15, 2015 10:09 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 15, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Natural Gas of course, A.K.A. Exxon.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 14, 2015 7:55 AM Flag

    Go Exxon PNG! Where do they get the electricity that goes into those little plugs? I hear a distant chant...png...png...png...PNG...PNG...(EXXON)...(:-)

    GSA

  • Reply to

    SEC filings update

    by vonpezel Feb 13, 2015 1:29 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 13, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    Von, my wife would like to know if Fidelity could be one of the short sellers driving the price down, then come in and take shares in addition to those shorted to add to their total? Is there some scheme that they could use like this? If so isn't it treading close to market manipulation and the SEC would frown on such practices?

    GSA

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