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andersongordon 222 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 28, 2015 6:21 PM Member since: Jul 11, 2011
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  • Reply to

    short interest

    by e11ndofwar Jun 24, 2015 6:07 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 28, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    Concur. The tale will be told by the end of 2015. Either NVDQ will grow as advertised or the confidence of investors will melt like the spring snow.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by e11ndofwar Jun 24, 2015 6:07 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 27, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    Part II of the other side of the current scenario-scape. Events that would diminish the Part I analysis of value added and price of NVDQ stock.
    (Continued)
    10% of the NVDQ space. New entrants might even accelerate the market penetration for NVDQ as this new technology is dispersed and its value is communicated to the medical community.

    Probability 5%-10% (my estimate)

    These threat scenarios cannot be added but must be thought as placing them together and looking for the maximum overlap. There are aspects of each that are mutually exclusive to the others.

    Total Threat Probability 25%-35% (my estimate)

    Taking the minimum stock price $20.45 and multiplying by the non- threat potential (100%-30%) yields a current price estimate of $14.30.

    The maximum price of 10-15 times the minimum is not impacted by the threat scenarios because it assumes the marketing is successful, and competition is unable to penetrate NVDQ barriers to entry and NVDQ integrated tech platform is accepted as "Standard of Care" hence the upper NVDQ stock price is $204-$307@.

    Comments, questions and challenges welcome.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by e11ndofwar Jun 24, 2015 6:07 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 27, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Part II of the other side of the current scenario-scape. Events that would diminish the Part I analysis of value added and price of NVDQ stock.

    1) The technology and integrated application of the computer interface to make it usable and efficacious to the medical treatment of patients has a fundamental flaw or someone comes up with a better, cheaper way to provide the same function.

    Probability 0%-10% (my estimate)

    2) NVDQ management fails to transition from invention to marketing of its value. This is the biggest threat. So far the results are inconclusive. There have been 2-3 years of misfires, excuses and events outside their control (Obamacare, perceived correlation with ISRG legal challenges, messy break-up with LifeCell, failure to implement development of an effective marketing division, though this is still to be judged).

    Probability 20%-30% (my estimate)

    3) Insufficient barriers to entry against competitors. Based on my analysis of Stryker's declared entry into the market and its FDA submittal, their entry will be ineffective at penetrating the "complex patient, and Integration Platform of diagnosis/ treatment selection/ treatment implementation/treatment verification". Stryker may enter the "fluorescent imaging" market but it will only compete in

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by e11ndofwar Jun 24, 2015 6:07 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 27, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Endo, I would like to talk about the other side of the current scenario-scape. How low could the stock go? What would be the big scenario catalyst that would do that?
    1) The company's current value is at $12@ times 55 million share = $660 million. This market i.e. the complex surgical market and diagnostic market is currently either under served or not served in an easily usable method for medical decisions and treatment application.
    Using NVDQ's estimates, and this is to independently verified, there are about 2,000,000 US patient applications per year they feel they have real value to address. Internationally they feel the market is greater. If they have revenues of $300 per application ($100 capital and $200 consumables (Kits)---conservative estimate)) they should achieve at least 50% of their targeted potential revenue in 10 years. That would be $300 million annual revenue. If ISRG can be used as a surrogate, they should harvest 20%-30% net after-tax margins. ISRG gross margins are ~70% similar to what NVDQ expects--currently ~65% and the fixed cost i.e. General Admin, R&D, etc. are born by similar revenues.
    Minimum net after-tax earnings per share
    2000k* $300 * .5 * .25 / 55000k=$1.36 per share or $20.45 share price using a P/E of 15.
    Of course this all has to be depreciated by the probability of realization, but the conservative assumptions built in I believe more than sufficiently account for this, US patients used was 1000k (2000k*.5). International markets were ignored and they could potential be greater than the US. Capital was pegged at $100 per application and with upgrades and new future machines (Doppler tech) this could easily exceed $200 per patient. Multiple uses of kits per patient are currently planned for diagnosis, treatment selection, surgical application and treatment results verification, hence the 1.0 kit per patient could easily move toward 3 or greater.
    Result..the upper earnings and price could exceed 10-15 the min.
    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 24, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    And the darkness of space causes it to cool. This is what I was taught in school, way back when...I wonder what they teach in school today?
    GSA

  • Reply to

    Non laproscopic overlap

    by ironyworks Jun 22, 2015 5:27 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 23, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    Thanks Muf, this is a very useful explanation.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 22, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Thanks, very good explaination.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 21, 2015 1:45 AM Flag

    Its posted on the Cardica web site. Under SEC postings.
    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Jun 20, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    VP Marketing, Dr. Liam just converted 200,000 of options the day he was eligible to do so. He did it at $0.41 per share or $82,000. I don't think he is a fool. He knows what is happening. He is buying with his money.

    Anyone else see this as any thing but positive?

    GSA

  • Reply to

    House Votes to Repeal Medical Device Tax

    by andersongordon Jun 2, 2015 12:19 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 19, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    In the most recent vote (June 18, 2015) there were 46 Democratic crossovers up from 30 and there were a couple dozen Republicans that didn't show up for the vote. Since the vote was 280-140 there is ample votes in the house to override a presidential veto (2/3 needed). The Senate voted in a non-binding vote far in excess of the needed 2/3s but it was a show vote and linked with other issues so is not a clean indication of how they will vote...Stay tuned!

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Let us hope

    by e11ndofwar Jun 17, 2015 10:10 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 17, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    Right with you Endo.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by e11ndofwar Jun 11, 2015 2:58 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 11, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Thanks Endo.
    GSA

  • Roger Deck (CFO) was very positive in his comments / responses to the questions following his scripted presentation. He stated as mentioned by Von that the recurring revenue disappointment of the 1st quarter had transformed into a very strong recovery in the second. He also mentioned a strong push to get rented and leased machines with high kit costs transitioned to a machine sale lower kit cost model that benefits the hospitals financially and accelerates the diffusion of the technology across other surgeons and surgical areas. Q1 Revenue was $11.7 M (13.5% YOY growth) and earnings of -$0.20 per share taking out stock and warrant impacts. Q2 stated bogie and this will be key is $14.2 M (27% YOY growth) and earnings of -$0.18 per share without stock and warrant impacts. If they beat this number and I think based on Roger's enthusiasm 85% of the way thru Q2, then the forecasted Q3 and Q4 results could and should also be exceeded. That would indicate Q3 $17.1 M (40% YOY growth), -$0.15 EPS, and Q4 $22.2M (70% YOY growth), -$0.11 EPS are also possible bogies that will be exceeded. This brings us for the year to the stated 40% revenue growth YOY. If this is true NVDQ will be in breakout mode late in 2015 and EPS breakeven would only be a few quarters away in 2016.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    House Votes to Repeal Medical Device Tax

    by andersongordon Jun 2, 2015 12:19 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 10, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    No one will skip surgery. The 2.3% will be paid and go directly to NVDQ's bottom line. Novadaq will not have to refund the 2.3% and since they don't have any competitor in fluorescent imaging, there is no one to try to undercut them.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Primecap takes 6.9% Passive stake in NVDQ

    by flamfurter Jun 9, 2015 9:11 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 10, 2015 8:01 AM Flag

    Thank you for your participation on this board. I enjoy exchanges with thoughtful, analytic, informed individuals. Not with an agenda, or political, preconceived "feeling" centered presentation, but just good old plain...here are the facts we have, and here is a hypothesis that takes those facts and looks for predictive patterns.

    Thank you for requesting verifiable sources, and explanations of hypothesis and their conclusions presented by others on this board...including myself.

    Have a great day Von.

    GSa

  • Reply to

    Primecap takes 6.9% Passive stake in NVDQ

    by flamfurter Jun 9, 2015 9:11 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 9, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    I confirmed the SEC Form 13G filing on May 31, 2015. Primecap increased their holdings from 1.085 to 3.853 million shares. Their stated purpose was for "passive" investment. I found the reference to "Why Primecap Management Co Just Disclosed Huge New Novadaq Technologies Inc Stake" under Primecap's new investment in Nuance but could not find anything regarding Novadaq. There was one blogger who stated that Primecap was one of the best at finding out what is happening on the ground and the fact that they took this new (my words) $18 million increase in position of NVDQ would eventual prove to be significant.

    I would like to hear Arun say something tomorrow that would support this.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    House Votes to Repeal Medical Device Tax

    by andersongordon Jun 2, 2015 12:19 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 5, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Many of those 30 are no longer in congress I suspect.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 5, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Von, the market for NVDQ is downright ugly. I suspect the short sellers are taking advantage of the Stryker entry threat and will be able to sustain the pressure until NVDQ proves them otherwise with real results. That being my hypothesis, what is your take?

    1) what do you expect to be said at the Blair conference?
    2) what would you like to see said at the Blair conference?
    3) what are the items or comments that could counter or stop the advantage the short sellers have?

    If the marketing initiative is slowed or even hurt by the Stryker announcement, how serious could it be? If it is only a transient, what would be your estimate of the decay factor (half life). Weeks (Q2 results), Months (they need all of 2015 for a "trend", Years (the rollout of PinPoint will take years to proceed along the adoption curve and the Stryker threat, real or perceived will remain).

    GSA

  • Reply to

    House Votes to Repeal Medical Device Tax

    by andersongordon Jun 2, 2015 12:19 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 3, 2015 7:47 AM Flag

    Current domestic revenue (2015) is estimated to be around $2 billion. 2.3% of that is $46 million. There are 37 million shares that means around $1.25 per share in "new" captured earnings. At the current P/E of ~26 that's $32.50 per share. If you count the domestic growth rate of ~8% per year for the next 5 years, that would add another $10-$15 per share. Of course this would have to be discounted back into todays dollars. The $45 stated price change was not "rigorous" but the general approach has been presented. There are many variables---what is the appropriate P/E, what is the future domestic growth rate, and the biggest of all, what is the likelihood of congress and the president, current or future to make this repeal happen? You may have to discount the whole cash flow by 2-3 years if the current president is successful in blocking it. There are practically no costs associated with the repeal so the 2.3% will go almost 100% to the after tax bottom line.

    The fact that the stock did not respond yesterday is an indication on what the market thinks the probability of this ever happening...nil. Taxes are "sticky". Governing bodies that can take money freely from others rarely give it up, once they have established it. Just look at our US income tax...established as a temporary tax to help pay for the big war. I don't think anyone believes it will ever go away.

    NVDQ is much, much more touchy feely, but the thought process is the same.

    Good request Pezel.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Jun 2, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    In a split along party lines with Democratic crossovers, the house subcommittee voted 25-14 to proceed with a full house vote on repealing the Obamacare Medical Device tax on revenue (2.3%). The Senate is considering a similar bill. Assuming both pass, will there be enough Democratic crossovers to overcome the promised veto? It should be close. If it doesn't pass how many Dems will be up for reelection with this job killer on their record?

    If it passes this will add 2.3% of Revenue to NVDQ, and ISRG on domestic sales right to the bottom line...a pure 2.3% increase in tax free earnings. This would be the equivalent of about 3.5% increase in gross margins....forever! That should add about $45 to ISRG and $2.50 to NVDQ? (harder to judge).

    Stay Tuned.

    GSA

NVDQ
12.06+0.02(+0.17%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT