Every piece of news and information I can glean is positive. The only thing negative is there is no clear indicator how the new sales force is doing. If there was someway to know how many machines are being placed, even if it didn't segment out sales/lease/rent/trial categories, that would squelch any "rumored" high turnover or lack of progress hints that are unsubstantiated. If there was any information or even secondary indications, the fear factor on stock price would be mitigated.
We will know something after the market closes on Nov. 6th. The investors day conference on Nov. 17th will most likely have oodles of "color" on the LUNA strategy and the newly initiated India market size and timing impacts on the companies sales.
Totally baffled. The only possible reason for the push down in price and especially the 100k sale at the very end of the day is that margin calls are forcing people out. Whether this is the main driver or not, it probably is a contributor.
At $5 someone will offer to buy the company. 55 million shares at $5@? For a company worth ~$5 to $20 Billion in ten years, that's about $.044 to $.011 for a dollar of valuation! I would like to have the opportunity to pay 1 cent for a 1 dollar payback in 10 years with 50% to 90% probability! Even at the low end of 50% probablility and the ~5 cent payoff, that's still a ten bagger! $.05/.5= $.10 for a $1.00 payoff!
The hedge funds and short sellers are at the apex of their ability to push the stock price now. Once the earnings and the Nov 17th investors day presentations are made the price will be 50% higher than today. So Hang in there Nisku and all those who boarded this train at earlier stops.
No Buyout. I will vote all my shares against it for anything less than $250@. With potential 5 years out to exceed this!
Sales figures and to a lesser degree the timeliness of the Exchange 45 are not going to be the movers for CRDC for quarters or even a year or more.
If a large sale is in the bag or imminent with a national pediatric hospital system like CHOP Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia this will prove the viability and financial sustainability of the Cardica strategy. This should be a large multi-year order, large enough to give credibility to CRDC with the surgical community and with enough benefits in the agreement to give the hospital system an advantage of the new clinical potential and a financial advantage over other standard pricings. Look for a hint if not an outright discussion on this topic from Dr. Hausen in the CC.
Well said Rondel. I too have been on this horse for a long time and have the painful financial sheet to show for it, yet I still believe in Dr. Hausen and his ingenious inventions for the surgical community. I may or not regret it but I will ride this horse until it lays down and dies. I don't like the ilk of Broadfin. I know they have every right to do what they are doing...that's the capitalistic system we have. The "invisible hand" can be very harsh as well as rewarding. Still there is real value to the type of improvements Dr. Hausen adds to society. I applaud those of his ilk that invent and take risks to bring new and amazing improvements to the way we deal with needs and wants of society.
The ISRG web site puts out lists of all "certified" doctors that have met minimum training and experience. The International surgeons are not reliable as an indicator because each country and culture has different influences on whether a doctor seeks to be listed on the web site, however the domestic lists are a good secondary indicator how ISRG is doing. This is a lagging indicator since doctors typically would not seek certification unless they had a machine to perform on. That being said, these are the results for you to consider:
Domestic Net Additions......% of those in General Surgery
Q3 2013 465
Q4 2013 242
Q1 2014 188 41%
Q2 2014 174 50%
Q3 2014 129 44%
Now these are Net Surgeon changes. The # of attritions (women deciding to leave for family reasons, or retirement, etc. will increase with time to reach an asymptotic level. Also as the natural demand for robotic surgeons in the US is met there will be lest demand for meeting that shortfall, also reaching that asymptote is well on its way since ISRG has been adding surgeon since 1999 and now stands at ~8700.
Hope this informs and helps those on this board to put GS and WSJ recent announcements in perspective.
Serena Group is not the largest wound care network, maybe not even in the top three, but their strategic positioning seem to be leader in introducing and integrating best in class technology to distinguish them from their competitors both for clinical outcomes and cost lowering. If Serena is able to integrate the LUNA into their investigative, treatment, and assessment phases as an integrated gestalt, ....with real marketable results...the others will have to respond by mimicking them. It is not Serena's 20-30 sites but the 200-300 competitors reaction that drive LUNA to become the "Standard" of care in wound care.
Even if Serena has been given a sweetheart deal for the LUNAs, if Serena contributes the clinical results and accompanying financial benefits of their LUNA integration as part of the agreement the value to NVDQ could be significant.
Great find Farfignugen. 30 capital sales at ~$200k@ is $6 million. If 50% come in the 4th quarter as Arun's comments in the last conference call seemed to indicate, that would be a nice bump to the already ramping up 60-80 sales force.
My take away also. I went through their web site and couldn't find anything of any information except the recent hire of a business manager who had experience in building out a network of wound care centers for two other companies. Sounded like a start-up operation or a wantabe major player in this field. But that's why I put out this request for info on them. I haven't gone to NVDQ investor relations personnel but that may be the best approach unless someone else can shed light on this company.
Does anyone know how many clinics Serena Group has? Dr. Serena stated his goal is to place a LUNA in each. Whether this happens in the next quarter or two was not stated in the release. Anyone have any insight on Serena Group's size or # of patients they treat per year?
Very plausible bio. We should see a change in the buy/sell flows next week if your theory is correct. The cost for Broadfin to manipulate the stock price to carry this out....? That would have to be balanced by the gain their 10% stake in CRDC is worth. Of course it may not be just a share times price model. There is also the prevention of those 4 million shares falling into the hands of someone who may oppose their future plans. A 10% stake is a pretty thin wedge to manipulate the future of Cardica, but if they were in league with a few other 5-10% holders as silent partners then it could be enough. I just had this happen to me over at Chindex. The CEO/founder who only had a few % of the shares joined with about 20-30% of the outstanding ownership and took it private for originally $16@ but eventually after an outside consortium realized the steal going on made a counter offer and drove their price up to $24@. The real value...probably 10 time this when one considers they had a monopoly on private premium health care for China!
Well time will tell.
Concur completely Bio. The unmet need for a minimally enabling pediatric stapler cutter was the prime input in the 5mm solution. Only now can small children and babies be spared the open surgery pain and suffering. Whether this is the reason for the current spike in volume and price increase or not, it is being pursued as a salient marketing initiative.
Thank you for being kind, positive and serious. Would like to see your future contributions to this board Shell.
Bio, what are the scenario's that would have the recent price increase related to the 4 million warrants? If I had warrants for $1.45, if I can get a price above $1.45 by the end of September then I have the potential for a pure gain of 4 million times the price above $1.45...sort of a Call asset. If someone spends enough to move the needle...someone who happens to be "friends" with a warrant owner, the cost to purchase say 1 million shares in the next week could be "shared" with the value gained by the warrant owner.
Sounds like some paper back novel plot I know but I have seen stranger things.
Listed in my highest probability order: (all speculation...if I had actual information they would be putting me in jail)
1) 40% a large company, with a desire to possess the new stapler cutter is taking a 5% position (~4.5 million shares) before they make a buyout offer....prime suspects...J&J, Covidian
2) 30% another institution has decided that a 5-10 million dollar investment with long odds of success are worth taking and is now acquiring 2-4% of the shares....1.6-3.2 million shares. They intend to be holders for the one of two possibilities either 1) above or long term success of Dr. Hausen's vision and $10 per share or greater eventual share price within 5 years
3) 10% some vulture is interested in picking up enough shares to have a holding large enough to pump and drop the share price for short term manipulation potential...for a mere million shares ($1-2 million) an individual or hedge fund could cause price swings of 10-20% from now until Dr. Hausen either runs out of money or makes a success of the company...2-3 years
4) 10% a large sale is in the bag or imminent with a national pediatric hospital system like CHOP Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia. This would be a large multi-year order large enough to give credibility to CRDC with the surgical community and with enough benefits in the agreement to give the hospital system to make them have an advantage of the new clinical potential and a financial advantage over other standard pricings
5) 5% Japan has made a decision and someone either has knowledge of it or has very strong secondary indications
6) 5% Other Possible Causes ????
The trouble with 4) and 5) is there is potential insider trading that could be detected by the SEC
Hope this stimulates responses and comments on each category as well as Other Possibilities(6 ???)
I don't agree with their tactics or exploitation, but I know of no better economic system. Bad decisions may be inefficiently rewarded for a while, but eventually the market will adjust and bad decisions when brought to light are rewarded accordingly. The concerns expressed "fairly" in the CRDC response this morning are real. They cannot always reveal what and why they are doing with the company for competitive or regulated "fairness" constraints, but eventually their strategy and tactics will be judged by the market. I feel they are doing a good job and will stay as a long term major holder. I like Dr. Hausen's attention to detail and focus on communicating the benefits of his inventions to the thought leaders of the surgical community. It may be slower that some would like but I think he is swimming into the current about as well as can be done. Thanks Earnie, I appreciate your contributions to this board.