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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

andersongordon 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 8:00 AM Member since: Jul 11, 2011
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  • Reply to

    what should not be overlooked

    by e11ndofwar Aug 14, 2014 3:44 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 15, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    Tred, the results we all see, i.e. a slower adoption than theory would have indicated was largely influenced if not responsible to the "Affordable Care Act". In the US hospitals....the marginal ones and many of those in remote regions are under so much stress that they are closing. The rest are trying to cope with the ~40% of "discretionary" patients that have weighed the new "deductible", real out of the pocket cash expense that are now in the thousands instead of the hundreds, that are not now in the revenue stream. When there is a cash flow transient like the one hospitals are living through, there are two main responses. One, lay off employees....very painful and not easily repaired if the revenue stream recovers. Two, reduce, even eliminate capital equipment purchases.

    These "discretionary" patients will eventually either become non-discretionary--when the benign tumor becomes cancerous...or they will decide to pay the new increased deductible...or they will be removed from the market for health treatment...death.

    The big picture seems to be a marked increase of GDP percent going to the health segment in higher insurance and deductible and tax (government subsidies) payments. Yes, our president bent the cost curve, just not the way it was advertised. So where is all that money going? Insurance companies seem to be doing better. The government initially is doing better with justification for higher taxes...individual penalties (taxes according to the Supreme Court) and the new plethora of medical taxes...Capital Equipment Revenue tax, insurance "Surcharge" ....etc. This money will eventually work its way through the pipeline or else new pipelines will be created to meet the demand for health care. Else we will all suffer higher costs and less health care...rationing is what we use to call it.
    If you put one more intermediary (new ACA regulatory bureaucracy) between the patient (consumer) and the doctor (provider) there will be a delay.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    what should not be overlooked

    by e11ndofwar Aug 14, 2014 3:44 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 14, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    You put your finger right on the key takeaway again Endo. First Breast Reconstruction, then G.I., then Lymph Node, then Endometriosis, then....Standard of Care. This company's suite of equipment and applications will be in 80% of all hospitals in the US one day. ISRG is in 20%. Internationally the ratio of NVDQ to ISRG's presence will be even higher due to the cost effectiveness of it's technologies. It pays for itself even in a low cost environment. Currently the company sees about $1 to $2 Billion in annual revenue, I see $4-$8 Billion eventually counting all the clinics that will use it for wound care and diagnostics.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    A little help

    by e11ndofwar Aug 11, 2014 8:18 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 13, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    Thank you so much Endo. I really appreciate your thorough, relevant, unbiased thoughts and comments in your blogs. Keep up the good work. Someday, perhaps when NVDQ passes $100 a share I will come to one of the annual meetings and take you out to dinner.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    A little help

    by e11ndofwar Aug 11, 2014 8:18 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 11, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    That would help greatly Endo. I too would lend support for your request...

    GSA

  • Reply to

    A little help

    by e11ndofwar Aug 11, 2014 8:18 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 11, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    I thought Arun said in a previous call that he would have each quarter the number of SpyElite, LUNA, and PinPoint units ---Sold, Placed, and # of Hospitals using them. Would be nice to have a web site that was updated telling us what hospitals have these pieces of equipment both so we can monitor their progress and so I can guide folks I know that could benefit from these wonderful technologies. Similar to the ISRG hospital and surgeon web site. That would be a help to us that have invested and to potential users of these services.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Something seems wrong here

    by bridgejumper08 Aug 5, 2014 9:42 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 7, 2014 6:44 PM Flag

    What if NVDQ is in the midst of a tactical battle over SpyElite? If the breast reconstruction becomes the "standard" of practice will they have to pay more for taking it back inhouse? "I don't think all of the evidence is in yet" rings true. I would like to be a fly on the wall of the NVDQ strategic/tactical management discussion about how to proceed with the relationship/contract negotiations or the break-up of thereof! If played right someone will have a lot of value to be captured. Now is not the time to show your hand---hold em!

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Something seems wrong here

    by bridgejumper08 Aug 5, 2014 9:42 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 5, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    No. Conference call was as expected. Nothing that indicated the company was off course from what they have all along been projecting.

    Looks to me like some institutional sale of 50k plus volumes with no countervailing buy side driving the price down big chunks. A year from now someone who monitors those institutions will be asking why we sold NVDQ at $13 and now its at $26 and we are buying it.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Result

    by andersongordon Aug 5, 2014 7:27 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 5, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    Spot on Endo...The volumes of procedure growth are encouraging and as less machines than hoped for are in the field, that means the existing machines are being used with increasing regularity. Higher throughput for the hospitals means more efficient, hence profitability for the hospitals. Good!

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Q2 2014 Result

    by andersongordon Aug 5, 2014 7:27 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 5, 2014 8:16 AM Flag

    Tred, I believe you are correct. ISRG sold half of their 97 machines as the new Xi and none of those could have the Novadaq technology "revenue" recognized because the FDA has not approved it yet. All of the other half ~50 Si machines would not have the Novadaq tech as historically it ran around 80-85%. I also think you are correct about LifeCell as last quarter they were essentially only selling from their existing inventory with no new orders to Novadaq.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Aug 5, 2014 7:27 AM Flag

    The revenue was a little light but lets put things in perspective. The shortfall was about $300k. That's less than two sales of LUNA or PINPOINT. TWO! come on, given that the company itself said it would take 6-9 months for its marketing hires to come up to speed, and the real gauge of how they are doing won't be fully realized until the 3rd and mostly 4th quarter, lets wait an see. More on this once I listen to the conference call. Earnings were spot on...The analyst said a loss of $0.08 yesterday and that what they came in at, meaning the gross margins are ~60%-70%. Once volumes pick up expect the gross margins to approach and then breach the 70% mark.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    What will it take for XOM to reach $1,000?

    by way2retire Aug 1, 2014 7:24 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 2, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    Exxon doubles in value every 7 years or so, based on 9% growth of earnings per year. 3.2 doublings gets you to 1000 from 100 (log of 10), therefore ~22 years to go! If inflation kicks in because of all the money that is being printed in Washington and Brussels and Tokyo, this could cut the time down to 10-12 years without too much trouble.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    what is going on here?

    by lgg_lewis Aug 1, 2014 12:25 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Aug 1, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    No news, No information on Microcutter introduction results, 6 years of uninterrupted up markets, Argentina default on debt spreading fears, Russia face-off with the west and no clear end to the "game", Janet Yellen has no plan to unwind the Fed monetary bubble nor does she want to hear one. Add this cocktail, shake lightly and whalah! All the markets are getting a hangover, including Cardica.

    GSA

  • Does anyone have any link to the actual EU or US Sanctions? And what impact on the drilling rig already on its way to the Kara Sea? There is only about a 90 day window for drilling. Will Exxon have to recall the rig?

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Let's keep these "message boards" on topic"

    by vulcanfire18 Jul 27, 2014 4:20 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 27, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    Thank you Vulcan.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 22, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    If, and that is a stretch, if ISRG announces another $1 Billion accelerated buy-back, and they could given their current $2+ Billion in cash and no debt, the shares could rise $40-60 in the next week. The shorts would only have their shorts left. However this is very unlikely and more likely would be another $300-$500 million dollar buyback authorization. This is what I would deem more likely and should cause a $10-$20 stock price appreciation over the lack of doing it.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    earnings date

    by vonpezel Jul 19, 2014 4:16 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 22, 2014 7:15 AM Flag

    August 5th before the market opens. CC to follow at 08:30 Eastern time.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    SEC Form 4 filed by 5 offers

    by lgg_lewis Jul 17, 2014 8:54 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 21, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    Getitdone, give them a call. They will probably hire you. Even if they pay you cash, you could by the stock at current prices as an option with no expiration date. That's how I view their stock now.
    GSA

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by mark.hecho Jul 19, 2014 9:37 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 19, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Mark, the number of doctors added to the list this quarter was almost the same as last quarters (Q3 13_279, Q4 13_ 276, Q1 14_ 329, Q2 14_ 292). Over 50% of them were in the General Surgery category. There were about the same number of new "greenfield" hospitals listed which has become minor compared to repeat sales to existing facilities. As a rule of thumb there is 1 machine added for each 3-4 new doctors. It looks like from these indicators there will be no as you call it "upside potential" from the CC. However the same held for the last two quarters and the number of surgeon added far exceeded the 3-4 range. This would indicate that "spare capacity" on existing machines is being eaten up and eventually there will be additional multiple machines added to hospital systems. It may not be this quarter...but it will happen.
    Watch for an announcement about Taiwan. They added 48 surgeons this quarter and not all in existing cities. For comparison Germany has only 117 surgeon listed. I wouldn't be surprised if 20 sales were made in Taiwan alone.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    SEC Form 4 filed by 5 offers

    by lgg_lewis Jul 17, 2014 8:54 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 19, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Read the 8k SEC release. There are performance requirements for these 5. If they fail they not only do not get their bonus' which could double their salaries but the stock grants also would become worth less. I like it when a person is incentivized to perform well in a way that will reward the shareholders. I want them to succeed and have your shares be worth $20@. That should make you less dopy Dr. Lowney. Your 30,000 shares would become $600,000. (:-)

    Hang in there, from another long termer.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Accumulation In Play

    by andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 8:59 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    Very astute Bharat. The adoption curve I have been calibrating with each new piece of information is very similar to the one I used for ISRG. There are differences but the value for Novadaq's suite of instruments is very compelling. Internationally and in wound care I think the adoption curve will be stronger than ISRG's though the US hospital adoption may be weaker primarily because of all the hysteresis caused by Obamacare. The maximum acceleration "knee" should manifest itself in Q2 or Q3 of 2015. That's where the analysts are the most behind the curve and upgrades will abound.

    This is my current estimate for what it's worth.

    GSA

NVDQ
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