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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

andersongordon 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 10:27 AM Member since: Jul 11, 2011
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  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 22, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    If, and that is a stretch, if ISRG announces another $1 Billion accelerated buy-back, and they could given their current $2+ Billion in cash and no debt, the shares could rise $40-60 in the next week. The shorts would only have their shorts left. However this is very unlikely and more likely would be another $300-$500 million dollar buyback authorization. This is what I would deem more likely and should cause a $10-$20 stock price appreciation over the lack of doing it.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    earnings date

    by vonpezel Jul 19, 2014 4:16 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 22, 2014 7:15 AM Flag

    August 5th before the market opens. CC to follow at 08:30 Eastern time.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    SEC Form 4 filed by 5 offers

    by lgg_lewis Jul 17, 2014 8:54 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 21, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    Getitdone, give them a call. They will probably hire you. Even if they pay you cash, you could by the stock at current prices as an option with no expiration date. That's how I view their stock now.
    GSA

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by mark.hecho Jul 19, 2014 9:37 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 19, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Mark, the number of doctors added to the list this quarter was almost the same as last quarters (Q3 13_279, Q4 13_ 276, Q1 14_ 329, Q2 14_ 292). Over 50% of them were in the General Surgery category. There were about the same number of new "greenfield" hospitals listed which has become minor compared to repeat sales to existing facilities. As a rule of thumb there is 1 machine added for each 3-4 new doctors. It looks like from these indicators there will be no as you call it "upside potential" from the CC. However the same held for the last two quarters and the number of surgeon added far exceeded the 3-4 range. This would indicate that "spare capacity" on existing machines is being eaten up and eventually there will be additional multiple machines added to hospital systems. It may not be this quarter...but it will happen.
    Watch for an announcement about Taiwan. They added 48 surgeons this quarter and not all in existing cities. For comparison Germany has only 117 surgeon listed. I wouldn't be surprised if 20 sales were made in Taiwan alone.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    SEC Form 4 filed by 5 offers

    by lgg_lewis Jul 17, 2014 8:54 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 19, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Read the 8k SEC release. There are performance requirements for these 5. If they fail they not only do not get their bonus' which could double their salaries but the stock grants also would become worth less. I like it when a person is incentivized to perform well in a way that will reward the shareholders. I want them to succeed and have your shares be worth $20@. That should make you less dopy Dr. Lowney. Your 30,000 shares would become $600,000. (:-)

    Hang in there, from another long termer.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Accumulation In Play

    by andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 8:59 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    Very astute Bharat. The adoption curve I have been calibrating with each new piece of information is very similar to the one I used for ISRG. There are differences but the value for Novadaq's suite of instruments is very compelling. Internationally and in wound care I think the adoption curve will be stronger than ISRG's though the US hospital adoption may be weaker primarily because of all the hysteresis caused by Obamacare. The maximum acceleration "knee" should manifest itself in Q2 or Q3 of 2015. That's where the analysts are the most behind the curve and upgrades will abound.

    This is my current estimate for what it's worth.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    In the past few days the stock has meandered and declined for the first 5 hours. Then the volume picks up substantially and 10-20k shares every 10 minutes are purchased driving the price from a 1-3% loss to a small nominal gain. It looks to me like some institution or individuals are acquiring shares, perhaps as much as 500k in anticipation of the upcoming end to silence at the conference call. I expect a $.05 per share loss this quarter but underlying progress is being made in setting up the breakout expected in 2015. The marketing division is being assembled, and organized to support explosive growth. The papers and studies will either be in place or be released come early 2015. These studies will clearly and powerfully show both the clinical as well as economic benefits of NVDQ's new technology platform. I say platform because there are many new and exciting weld on technologies as well as applications that will enhance the argument for hospitals as well as clinics to include NVDQ systems in their health management and treatment.

    Arun has stated repeatedly "40% revenue growth". Starting in 2015 expect this to increase to double that for a few years.
    GSA

    P.S. Forecaste: NVDQ goes positive recurring earnings in 1st quarter of 2015.

  • Reply to

    SEC Form 4 filed by 5 offers

    by lgg_lewis Jul 17, 2014 8:54 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 18, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    4 officers at 50k shares apiece and Dr. Hausen at 90k == 290k shares. At $1.10 that's $319,000 total stock option donations to the five men who will either make the stock worth over $20@ or $0@. Give them an incentive to succeed and let them succeed!

    GSA

  • Reply to

    fundamental questions

    by e11ndofwar Jul 13, 2014 9:49 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jul 13, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    From my model:
    Revenue for the 2nd quarter, $13.5 Million
    Net income (excluding one time and stock expenses) $-2.5 Million
    Earnings per Share (-$0.05@)

    The should break even in the 4th Quarter!
    Revenues of $19.0 Million
    Net income (excluding one time and stock expenses) $-0.01 Million
    Earnings per Share (-$0.00@)

    The revenue drivers are well stated by Endo above. The expenses are the ongoing push for clinical and economic justification in existing and new application as well as the burgeoning sales and marketing hiring.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Large block

    by giraffeandmom Jun 25, 2014 1:15 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 27, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    You can see if the Ask or Bid price is what was the transaction price and also if any remainder Asks or Bids of the same price remain after the trade. It is not foolproof but it seems to work.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Large block

    by giraffeandmom Jun 25, 2014 1:15 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 27, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    If you wanted to sell 300k shares...something not uncommon for a mutual fund or institution as we close the quarter and they want to rebalance or move to another sector of the market, how would you do it? If you see someone offer 20k shares at a price, the market immediately responds, realizing someone wants to sell at a given price, by dropping their offer price in expectation that they need to and will subsequently lower their ask price. This is repeated multiple times in an effort to sell the full complement of 20k shares and the net impact is the seller has to take a lower net than the market would have otherwise given.

    There is another "way" around this, they offer 20k shares but only allow them to be seen 100 or 200 shares at a time. Once the 100 shares are taken, the next 100 share offering is instantly revealed...200 times! You will see this often especially with NVDQ. On the whole, neither of these or even the "30 cent" impact of Wednesday will move the stock from it's market seeking "neutral" point. Thus the following day the NVDQ price pressed another 14 cents higher as once again the aggregate demand exceeded the aggregate supply.

    Short term mismatches will occur in free markets...its the nature of the mechanism, but it is the best and fairest (not crooked) way existing to date.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Large block

    by giraffeandmom Jun 25, 2014 1:15 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 26, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    The 330k was probably done as a "mezzanine" trade...negotiated off the retail market. There was ~3 or 4 multiple thousand shares blocks sold in the last few seconds that drove the price down 30 cents. These shares were filled on the open market and there was no commensurate demand on the other side, thus the large drop for what was a small fraction of the days volume ~1%. This is why large institutional block trades are usually done as "mezzanine" trades then recorded on the open market once complete.

    Hope this helps Mr B.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Cardica

    by getitdone111 Jun 19, 2014 1:53 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 24, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Order of magnitude the same. Up 1 (:-)
    GSA

  • Reply to

    Cardica

    by getitdone111 Jun 19, 2014 1:53 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 24, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    "only one stapler." Yes only one stapler in a suite of many to follow, in a $3 plus billion annual market. Lets see, $3 billion at gross margins of ~70% (very low cost of manufacture at 100s of thousands a year rate), net margins of 20%-25% once market penetration occurs (when market penetration is over 20% ($500-750 million revenues), and ~100 million shares would yield ~$1.00 to $7.50 per share after taxes earnings. Lets take the low estimate at $1.00 per share, and a P/E of 15. You will have to change your handle to cordikka15buck then eventually cordikka100bucks.

    I will enjoy reading your blogs with new handles.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    $1.45 last trade in pre-market.

    by ghin10 Jun 18, 2014 8:02 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 18, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    In order for Cardica's MicroCutter to become known widely and accepted in the US Surgical community it needed a "wedge". Some entry that was both compelling and could not be met with any other option and that is large enough of a market to be known generally all over the US. Pediatric Surgery is that "wedge". The 5mm surgical stapler cutter is 1/6 the cross sectional area of the existing (designed for adults) stapler cutter. Because the Cardica approach is a transverse staple instead of the traditional perpendicular staple, it cannot be duplicated by the existing technological approach.

    This is a paradigm shifting technological improvement that will eventually replace existing stapler-cutters. Pediatric Surgery is the wedge to open the door. Once its opened the floodgate of conversions will accelerate rapidly.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    April vs. today

    by e11ndofwar Jun 16, 2014 11:50 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 17, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Good summary Endo. I caught the same Bloomberg 1year old new as if it happened yesterday....I would be embarrassed to write an article announcing the results of 2012 elections as if the just occurred last night. Notice in the article they didn't even mention that it was 1 year old to the day...just sort of forgot that 2013 is not the same as 2014. On another topic...Endo and Von and if Fish still is out there, the Medtronics /Covidien deal will free up about 10 to 15 $Billion to purchase med equipment companies. NVDQ at ~$1 Billion (15% premium) is well within the scope of their prowlings. I would hate to see it and since they are a Canadian company the tax advantages are not as strong, but still as a one stop-shop for Hospitals, to get NVDQ in-house would be a plum. A 100% premium (~$30@) would be a steel but might entice enough shareholders to part with their shares. Medtronics/Covidien with their vast marketing departments could push NVDQ's products into hospitals in a small fraction of the time it will take NVDQ. Good for Metronics, bad for current NVDQ longs, but this is Capitalism. Let me know what you think, but please don't tell Medtronics just in case they haven't though of this yet.

    An other twist is what would J&J do now that they are feeling the greater threat from a larger, more capitalized, tax advantaged player in their space. They might want to make an offer to NVDQ as a preemptive strike.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 16, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    If the new stapler-cutter is catching on in Europe, and there is initial buzz hear among leading surgeons like last weeks announcement from Florida, the price will quickly rise above $2@ and then if J&J and Covidien (Medtronics) get into a bidding war, the price will exceed $10@. Medtronics CEO this morning said with all the freed up $s from becoming an Irish tax based company (no 35% repatriation fee), they will have Billions to go hunting for medical capital equipment companies. At 85 million shares and $10@ a Billion is not out of the realm of possibilities.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Jun 16, 2014 7:41 AM Flag

    Covidien was bought by Medtronics or at least offered a 29% premium from Fridays close. The tax advantage for Medtronics a Minnesota US company to become an Irish based company is real. ~40% US and state tax rate to 12.5%....sounds like 25% was just added to the bottom line for stockholders. True, they will still have to pay the 3.4% Obamacare medical device revenue (not earnings but revenue) tax for sales in the US, but the world is much bigger than the US and getting bigger all the time. The tax benefits will only grow as the rest of the world demands better health care and / or the new US health care shrinks under the new rationed Obamacare. The spin does not call it rationing but just ask the 63,000 vets that get their health care from the government under the Veterans Administration, or the 6 million people now "choosing" the "better" insurance plan with its new $6000 ($12,000 for families) deductible. Anyone have $6000 to visit your doctor for the annual check up? Sounds like the average family will pay for all medical expensed out of pocket and only if your in for what use to be catastrophic care will the insurance come to the rescue.

    But I digress. Covidien/Medtonics which was in minimally invasive surgical equipment (e.g. stapler-cutters etc.) has or will receive ~9.3 $Billion in new funds where with to go on the prowl for new product acquisition.

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 13, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    I think your assessment Cutiger is correct and right on, including the time frame for a buyout if that is in the cards. I personally hope they make it alone as the company would be worth 2-5 times what J&J would offer.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Just a reminder

    by e11ndofwar Jun 9, 2014 1:01 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Jun 11, 2014 8:16 AM Flag

    Ditto! to Giraffe's comments. You captured all the essence of the presentation. One addition, Arun mentioned almost in passing at the very end during the question & answer portion that he expects an acceleration (beyond the 40%)....he just couldn't tell when it would happen... the implication and Endo's and Giraffe's sense of imminence and "conservatism" on Arun's part is relevant here.

    GSA

NVDQ
16.76-0.14(-0.83%)Jul 25 4:00 PMEDT

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