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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

andersongordon 74 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 5:10 PM Member since: Jul 11, 2011
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  • Reply to

    2014 CC Opinions

    by gopointers2 Feb 25, 2015 5:31 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 27, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    I did not respond because I was trying to rebuild and calibrate my model for Novadaq. There are many currents in this model that have very little historical data points to model. In addition they are not linear, independent interactions. The Duracell product will interact with SpyElite sales and recurring revenues. How strong will the feedback loop be? As stated in the CC this is not a simple model. Sorry for the delay in responding. For one aspect look at my response to the SpyElite "bulge" possible response above. A similarly complex analysis is required for Duracell, for Pinpoint, for Luna, and what happens if the FILM study is a "knockout" in the field of cancerous Lymph Nod identification (as I suspect it will be)?

    Bottom line..this company has so many very very positives going for it that as Arun stated in the CC "2015 will be the year of execution".

    GSA

  • Reply to

    2014 CC Opinions

    by gopointers2 Feb 25, 2015 5:31 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 27, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    I came to the same conclusion. All else being equal LifeCell marketed to 30 hospital systems and expected sales in the month of December from a good portion of them. Enough so that they negotiated it into the contract release agreement. That means there are 30 sales ready to pop. If Novadaq, which knows which hospitals they are...how else would they be off limits for the month of December?, targets those hospitals they should be able to close a majority of them. At $200k per system, that would be somewhere between $3.0 million and $4.0 million in Q1. If one subtracts the quantity sold in Q1 2014 (Est 5--"15 sold in the first 3 quarters" from CC), and one figures 50% revenue sharing during 2014 that should be ~$2.5 to $3.5 million in additional revenue from Spy Elite in Q1. Why Arun has only 20% revenue growth for Q1 is not clear. I expect an upside bump. But being that we are 2/3 thru Q1 Arun may have knowledge about other factors influencing these pipeline sales. We should all know in 2 months or so.

    One other note: the response of institutions lately is that they sense blood in the water and have been building their holdings...do they have contacts with the hospitals in question? If I was a Fidelity I would send boots on the ground to talk to hospital administrators from the big hospital systems to glean their intentions before buying 15% of the shares!!!!

    If this hypothesis is close to being reality, the 4.4 million shorted shares will be squeezed. If 87% of the shares are being held by institutions, that only leaves 7.2 million non-institutional shares--take out 2 million held by management and there are precious few shares left for the shorter to pursue. The graph of yesterday fits this hypothesis. As the price rises, the shorts will face margin calls in the next few days and the price could break $18@. I don't expect this, nor do I want my readers to base purchases on this, but it is fun to think about.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    couple of points

    by e11ndofwar Feb 17, 2015 2:11 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 18, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    Old Chinese Proverb:
    Man who constantly pulls up turnip to see if it is growing has stomach that growls.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 16, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    Yes that was my take away from the last conference call and the video...Cardica is in the process of designing "engineering" limits on the stapler-cutter. This would prevent surgeons from using the instrument outside of the tighter "allowable" tissue thickness range. Training and acceptance by surgeons is required and good, but if the surgeon cannot use the instrument outside of its effective range because of engineered limits it makes the instrument "idiot proof" if that is possible.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    YEMEN Falls, Libya Falls, .. is Saudi next

    by gideon_s_sword Feb 15, 2015 10:09 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 15, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Natural Gas of course, A.K.A. Exxon.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 14, 2015 7:55 AM Flag

    Go Exxon PNG! Where do they get the electricity that goes into those little plugs? I hear a distant chant...png...png...png...PNG...PNG...(EXXON)...(:-)

    GSA

  • Reply to

    SEC filings update

    by vonpezel Feb 13, 2015 1:29 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 13, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    Von, my wife would like to know if Fidelity could be one of the short sellers driving the price down, then come in and take shares in addition to those shorted to add to their total? Is there some scheme that they could use like this? If so isn't it treading close to market manipulation and the SEC would frown on such practices?

    GSA

  • Reply to

    GSA - Can you add any..

    by mojo3176 Feb 12, 2015 11:52 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 12, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    I would add this one Mojo. They sign a mid-term (3-7years) deal with one of the big ones to market the suite of Micro-cutters. Cardica would have to give up 30%-60% of their gross margins but it would instantly bring the stock price up to $5-$10@. They could keep overseas to themselves and use the new credibility to attract cash for the marketing initiatives. With the expiration of the current stapling technology, J&J or Covidian would also find this arrangement to their advantage over the other large players.

    This is purely hypothetical and I know of no other company(s) that have entered into such an arrangement. I would like to hear your thoughts on it Mojo and the other serious fellow board members.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Todays Movement---any explainations?

    by andersongordon Feb 11, 2015 4:18 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 12, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    Market seem to agree with you Von.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Todays Movement---any explainations?

    by andersongordon Feb 11, 2015 4:18 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 12, 2015 7:14 AM Flag

    The actual statement made by Arun was the "40% Y-O-Y revenue growth would be a base..." i. e. upward growth from there is expected. (:-)

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 12, 2015 7:09 AM Flag

    Good question. Put the stones down and think what would I do? Then express it in a well thought out and laid out plan.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Feb 11, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Hypothesis:
    1) The volume was very low--about 25 % of normal until ~14:00 and short sellers were making a run on it.
    2) Someone has an idea how they are doing and expect the upcoming conference call to have little if any positive news and no update on how the internal marketing effort is doing. I would also be too early to comment on ongoing clinical trials. It should be too early to have any exciting or positive news on the SpyElite progress. If hypothesis #2 is someones guess, it could turn that someone into a short seller. If someone has inside information on the companies results, it would be very hard to prove.
    3) Any one else have thoughts or another hypothesis?

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Talk Exxon might be interested

    by equityman2002 Feb 3, 2015 11:32 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 9, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    Thank you Richard. It is this very reason that I think Exxon may be a serious contender. They would rework the asset, i.e. the tar sands into their current best in class production and transportation plans. They typically don't buy assets deemed valuable by the market but those that are either too costly to develop through standard approaches or ones only able to be developed by the total integrated best in class, lowest cost financing, long term development (20-50 years), innovative technologies, world class project management and pristine environmental and safety built into every aspect. The recent development of PNG LNG project is just such a recent example. The Sakhalin Island 12 mile horizontal drilling from the land, thought to be impossible until Exxon did it, is another.

    You may be correct. I don't have any insider knowledge of the quality or quantity of recoverable oil that is possible with Exxon's current or future methods. I just though this type of asset has been pursued in the past...the Kearl Tar Sands.

    Thanks for you input. I will put it in my considerations and rethink the matter.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Sounds like......

    by mojo3176 Feb 5, 2015 5:06 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 8, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    Mojo, no mention was made of the green staples. I don't think the problem was the thickness of the tissue per se but the application by surgeons in ranges outside of the listed ranges. Two different problems, one of under thickness and the possible leakage of insufficient compression. Their solution, enhanced compression strength by modifying the handle and jaw compression force. The second problem, that of applying the staple to thicknesses too far above the listed range by tightening the locking clamp that prevents stapler/cutter from working unless the jaw closes (thickness and hardness of tissue limited) to the proper angle. (see video)

    The green staple should be a shoe in once these two modifications are clinically proven to be reliable fixes.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Sounds like......

    by mojo3176 Feb 5, 2015 5:06 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 8, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    Excellent synopsis Getitdone. I believe Dr. Hausen said the work on the 45 was proceeding, just a little further behind the 30. His plan as stated was to get the 30 thru clinical testing and take the lessons learned along with the parallel work on the 45 to bring it to commercial launch as soon as possible depending on the transferability of the 30 lessons and the applicability of them seamlessly into the 45.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Need clarification.....

    by mojo3176 Feb 6, 2015 11:09 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 7, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Vulcan your anger, frustration, disappointment,....is evident in your blog.
    Bernard Hausen in answering the question on reducing the burn rate said:
    "We would take whatever action that we thought was required in the circumstances to preserve the capital of the company depending on if we needed to take that action. I think realistically there are certain public company expenses and overhead expenses. So probably $3 million or less would probably be a reasonable position per quarter."

    I take it that even his own salary would be in the "overhead expenses". I know if I was in his shoes and the company was at a critical tipping point...I would forgo cashing my paychecks and put them in a shoebox until the day my baby (the company) was out of danger. I think he is a man of similar ilk, else I would not have invested in this company.

    Your position is also a valid one Vulcan. I have not been invested for 15 years as you have. If I was in your shoes I could very likely be writing your same sentiments. Thanks for your contributions.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Need clarification.....

    by mojo3176 Feb 6, 2015 11:09 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 7, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    No, no FDA expansion is being sought and none is required. They had no problem with the white staples nor is there any identified problem they are bringing to the attention of the FDA. The FDA approval was for the "labeled" use. No "requirement" of the FDA is applicable for "non-labeled" or tissue applications outside of the labeled range. In the real world, doctors press the boundaries to save time and money by not having to withdraw the stapler cutter and reload with different staples. Cardica is trying to enhance the robustness of the stapler design to expand the range of "outside labeled" use. The lower range is being addressed by higher clamping force and the upper range is being addressed by moving the locking mechanism that prevents stapling of tissues of tissue thickness well beyond the "labeled" range. (see the Micro-cutter video). The sample size is not a statistically driven number as when FDA approval is needed but depending on the nature (vascular, intestinal, colon, etc.) and type of tissues stapled and clinical results...a judgment on the efficacy of the fix(es) will be made internally by the Cardica staff.

    This is how I heard it, and read carefully the transcript. I'm a mechanical engineer and tried to envision and "interpret" what was really being said. I have no direct experience with surgery or surgical stapler cutters so the above explanation may not be fully correct. If someone else reading this has further insight or experience please correct me and add elucidation to this discussion.

    Thanks in advance

    GSA

  • Reply to

    There is a strong possibility

    by tednitu Feb 6, 2015 3:16 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 6, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    "Strong Possibility" ? $20-30 Billion? What would they offer for the shares $600@? $700@? There is a much better probability the a Siemens or GE would buy them out. That was tried years ago in a semi-secret meeting when ISRG was only worth ~$4 billion. Management would have nothing of it for what was being offered and I don't think management would want to buy it from the shareholders now. They have their plate full with Japan penetration and expansion into other (General) surgeries. The company is worth about $20 billion now and will eventually reach $60 billion dollars. That is not enough future value to take on the pain of private financing. They would need at least a 30% premium and that after the stock anticipated something was in the works. I doubt they could get it for less than $25 billion. Would a bank consortium put up ~$22 billion in financing?

    Tednitu: interesting to tease this scenario out though, thanks for the post.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Need clarification.....

    by mojo3176 Feb 6, 2015 11:09 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 6, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    No FDA label expansion, but robustness of use outside of labeled range (greater pressure on jaw for clamping) and prevention of use outside of acceptable range by narrowing the depth detection lockout. Bottom line: They want to make this fool-proof as possible so no surgeon can misuse it and have an adverse event. That is what happened back in October with the blue staples.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Need clarification.....

    by mojo3176 Feb 6, 2015 11:09 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Feb 6, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    White staple line testing should be completed in early 2nd calendar quarter (April or 1st half of May 2015). Depending on the results of clinical testing and the progress and transferability of the modification for white staples, the blue staples could be weeks or a few months following the white results. There is even a small possibility if the fix was of a transferrable mechanical nature that the blue could be accepted coincident with the white fix.

    Mojo, I listened to the conference call twice and read the transcript. I sense that Dr. Hausen and his team are going the extra mile conservative route to get a stapler-cutter system that will be at least as reliable as the existing staplers and even better if possible. Because of the physics of the 5mm versus 10 or 12 mm shaft and clamp, the Micro-cutter 30 will never be able to have the "theoretical" range of the existing white or blue staples, but the "labeled" range will meet or exceed all the promised specifications and reliability standards. It's the "outside" of labeled range use that surgeons will find is slightly less than that of the larger 12 mm conventional staples. That's the trade-off, higher articulation (80 degrees vs 45 degrees) and a trocar that is 78 square mm (5 mm) versus 314 square mm (10 mm). Also the smaller shaft and flexibility reduces possibility of damaging adjacent tissue.

    Mojo, the race is on...will they pull it off before the clock ($33.4 million) runs out. The burn rate now is $4.0 million per quarter (8 quarter clock) though Bob Newell stated that if they had too they could reduce this closer to $3.0 million per quarter (10 quarter clock). I'm sticking with the train for now but its hard for me to add to my current position given all the uncertainties and track record. If I had $50 million to lose, I would take the risk and extend their clock. I suspect once / if they fix the technical side they will need to focus on marketing---more $s.

    GSA

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