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Novadaq Technologies Inc. Message Board

andersongordon 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 28, 2015 8:55 AM Member since: Jul 11, 2011
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  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Oct 31, 2014 7:24 AM Flag

    I hope you didn't follow your advice Jay. There is still time to get back in if you did. In all seriousness, NVDQ is a definite long term holding opportunity with eventual prices well in to triple digit figures 5-7 years out.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    $12,000,000

    by e11ndofwar Nov 1, 2014 9:23 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 1, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Endo, the revenue from Life Cell's SpyElite is currently around $20 million per year. Assuming the current quarter of ~20% breast reconstruction continues at these levels in the 4th quarter, that would be ~$5.0 million. Since that revenue is transferred to Novadaq starting today, we should get 2 of the three months revenue. That $3.3 million additional 4th quarter revenue at ~70% gross margins is about $2.33 million contribution to earnings...at ~50 million shares that's about a $.05 contribution. If my estimates for the 3rd quarter of $(0.04) per share are realized, we could see our first positive ongoing earnings in the 4th quarter! There may be some hysteresis during the transition, so I am not predicting break-even until the 1st quarter 2015 but we are going to be really close. Either way the "off to the races" comment is very likely.

    The same type of scenario occurred to ISRG back in 2003 when you had the two former companies suing each other over "rights" to the technology. Hospitals were afraid to jump into a legal quagmire. In July 2003 they settled, merged and the stock then at $17@ took off...$500@ yesterday.

    See you all at the $200 plus Novadaq stock price party.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    down the road

    by e11ndofwar Nov 5, 2014 10:11 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 6, 2014 1:17 AM Flag

    The tax is 2.3% of the revenue...not income. This is the only tax I know of that in its effect hurts marginally profitable and especially start-up companies who have no earnings and are typically struggling with cash flow. The repeal of this ill thought out "tax" will take the "2.3%" directly to the bottom line earnings or in the case of start-ups the cash flow will be redirected from the government in Washington to the hiring of new marketing and R&D and manufacturing persons. For most established "generic" instrument suppliers this could increase earnings by ~25% not 2.3%! For start-ups like Novadaq it means positive earnings will be reached quarters, even as much as a year ahead of when it would with the tax. For share prices this could mean $28@ instead of $14@ at the end of say 2015.

    Thank you all that voted for reason and growth and "fairness" in the recent elections.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    anderson gordon

    by e11ndofwar Nov 6, 2014 6:24 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 6, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Endo it should be even a greater benefit than the 109 new revenue sales, the 50 placed in the previous quarter had the expenses charged in Q2 and the revenue credited in Q3. At gross margins around 65% that should mean the equivalent of an additional ~25 sales as far as gross margin. Your number would then be not 109 but 134. Time will tell but there are a lot of stars lining up for this company. Some of them may show up this quarter but certainly by next quarter there will be "surprises" hence the confidence of Arun to meet the 40% annual grow target.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    anderson gordon

    by e11ndofwar Nov 6, 2014 6:24 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 6, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    I don't, but it will be a minority contribution at best. I suspect its around $50k per unit and around $10k gross margins per unit $5.4 m revenue, $1.1 m in gross margin contributions. This if my assumptions are correct would push the revenue estimates above the $12.1 analyst consensus and closer to my ~$15 m number. Half of them are "one time" events and if the analyst have sharp pencils may discount the up surprise. I suspect they will be "stunned" should the $15 million revenue # appear and there will be a subsequent $2 rise in the stock price. All of this is predicated on modeling and assumptions though...it is very hard to get reliable useful information on the progress of NVDQ sales.

    Question still remains. We will see at 16:30 though.

    GSA

  • I was surprised as anyone when there was no afterhours trade yesterday.
    Theory: The company requested a halt in afterhours trading because they knew the results (financial) were pretty much spot on what the analysts consensus predicted, but the real story would not be understood until after the conference call. Listening to the conference call and one came away with the feeling NVDQ met the expectations without the national wound care center Selena purchasing a machine, but the CEO of Selena stated in his announcement that he will put them in all his centers (30 self owned and ~30+ managed). Also there will be an "amicable" transfer from Life Cell that will contribute both to the top and bottom lines starting Dec 1, 2014 of the ~400 or so hospitals that now use SpyElite. Dr. Arun stated we should expect International Sale contribution starting in the second half of 2015 with ~10 hospitals (teaching hospitals) in India and Japan already using and assessing the value and cost effectiveness of NVDQs fluorescent imaging technology. Tack on to this the marketing staff is just now beginning to see real traction on their learning curve and contact establishment here in the US. Now they will be taking a third fluorescent machine , PinPoint, LUNA, and SpyElite to the hospitals for an entire "ecosystem" of Diagnostic, Evaluative and real time analysis of the treatment for a whole host of medical needs.

    If anyone has any actual info on why the trading was halted after hours please post it.

    Thanks in advance.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 7, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Based on this mornings underwhelming response to yesterdays cc, is suspect the no shows after hours were waiting to see how everyone else would price the shares given the new uneventful Q3 performance and the positive future companies expectations. This was the longest conference call I've ever listened to, 1 hour and 22 minutes! and the lowest afterhours volume I've ever witnessed, 20 shares!

    GSA

  • Reply to

    yesterday's cc (part 1)

    by vonpezel Nov 7, 2014 9:39 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 7, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Sorry Endo for the thumbs down, I'm all thumbs this morning and hit the wrong one.
    GSA

  • Reply to

    Fiscal Year 2015 First Quarter Results

    by bigmoose65eww Nov 9, 2014 10:49 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 10, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    Very well put Bigmoose. I concur heartily with your blog.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Is Hausen overpaid?

    by gene_ramirez_vox Nov 10, 2014 8:31 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 10, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    I will bet Dr. Hausen works 14 plus hours per day with no vacation and has kept this pace up for years. That's ~$75 per hour. My auto mechanic charges $85 per hour. Seattle wants $25 minimum wage for people who haven't a high school education and only have to know which button to push when he (she) asks "Do you want fries with that?" Hillary and Bill were "Dead Broke" when they left the White House (nice housing subsidy), and are now worth hundreds of millions....I bet they get more than $75 per hour for giving speeches!
    Lets see, that's about 2,500,000 hours at $75 per hour...

    I will vote with the horse that got us thus far.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com by andersongordon Nov 12, 2014 7:18 AM Flag

    Raises Price Target from $16.50 to $22.00

    I love the analyst ability to look in the rear view mirror and change the price target after the existing price target is surpassed and then draw a straight line from two points on a historical chart to get the new price! And they only pay these analysts $200K plus to do this? Why did dad tell me to join a union and become an electrician?
    GSA

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by e11ndofwar Nov 12, 2014 7:51 AM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 12, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    Good news Endo. Gotta love those shorts...speaking from an electrical standpoint anyway. I wonder what the current count is. Would like to see those guys get shocked by another announcement from a second wound care consortium...one of the biggies...then see the price jump $3-$5 in before trading time and have those shorts get squeezed...until they squeal!

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Investor Day Eyewitness Report

    by vonpezel Nov 17, 2014 8:47 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 18, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    I'll add my thanks Von. The failure of institutions to recognize the success of NVDQ and the paradigm shift in medical diagnosis and treatment integration is an opportunity for us little guys to jump on this bargain ten bagger!

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 21, 2014 7:21 AM Flag

    Getidone, I too suspect there is an unstated agenda on the part of Broadfin. If they really want to help Cardica get their world class new instruments into the hands of Surgeons world wide, why wouldn't they be satisfied with having a voice on the board---even two? Cardica has given them three and they are not satisfied. Cardica has precious few $'s to finish the launch before they bleed to death. I was shocked to see $200k spent on the proxy fight and another $500k expected. That's a full month of life's blood for this company spent fighting itself! What a waste. I wish I had about $50 million (coffee money for ISRG) and would give them a loan with a 5 year payment hiatus or preferred convertible notes that would allow for share purchase at ~$3 or $4 apiece in 5 - 10 years and tell Broadfin to look elsewhere.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Keystone Pipeline Now Going Through

    by bottomlinefury Nov 12, 2014 11:10 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Nov 21, 2014 7:33 AM Flag

    Americans don't like to be lied to. They are sometimes apathetic because of the blessings we are experiencing, but as once stated by an Admiral of the Japanese Empire...."I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant."
    Once awaken, they will act...and we did.

    As to the blessings listed in the above Canadian paper...there are causal reasons for each of them. The mistake some make is to associate the results in a particular time without understanding the causations that brought about the results.
    GSA

  • Reply to

    What's the deal?

    by shamelesspumpanddumper Dec 10, 2014 2:45 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Dec 10, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    The exclusive contract to market these new products means Novadaq salesmen will have access to every hospital that performs reconstructive surgery or wound care and will be able to speak to the hospital decision makers about the combination of the Novadaq technology-best in class wound mesh technology that will have synergies that will more than pay for themselves---they will become the Gold Standard in a very, very short time and NVDQ will accelerate their marketing presence, up from 40% per year to 60%, 80%, triple digit? for the next 3-5 years. This is big...bigger than getting the LifeCell to give up their division for $5 million, bigger than the Wound care agreement.

    Price targets will be increased to $30+ within a week of the Q4 conference call.

    GSA

  • andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Dec 10, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    He is looking at a different stock probably. He obviously either doesn't mean Novadaq or he knows nothing about Novadaq.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Natural cross selling opportunity

    by waitforgodot1 Dec 9, 2014 6:35 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Dec 10, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    See my response to the Whats Happening blog.
    GSA

  • Reply to

    What's the deal?

    by shamelesspumpanddumper Dec 10, 2014 2:45 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Dec 11, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Thank you Flam. I do not have the exact market share of the LifeNet Health products except I looked into this about 6 months ago for a possible acquisition on the part of Novadaq of a small private company in the same area. Because of the private nature of the company and other products that they manufactured, it turned out to be not likely. However during the investigation I realize the importance of the product in providing a platform for cell / skin formation in surgeries where large wound areas existed. Of all the competing products the LifeNet products were the best and dominated the market. As I said, I didn't know the extent of the dominance (thanks again Flam) but they were the "gold standard". With the combination of blood profusion efficacy measurement provided by SPY combined with the cell mesh from LifeNet, you get synergies that will only enhance the 70-80% market share from the higher clinical performance and cost savings. If Novadaq can have their sales persons in 80%Plus of the market in an accelerated time frame...the dots are on the page.

    I believe the institutions have smart enough people to connect these same dots and yesterday they returned to the table in a big way. I expect the institutions that did not participate yesterday will have to come back to acquire shares in the days to come. Combine this with the recent increase of 3.2 to 3.5 million shorted shares (Nov 15th) and institutions currently have 85% plus of the existing shares leave only about 6 million available for the shorted shares to bid on (assuming the institutions are in the acquiring mode). The squeeze is definitely on. If we have another up day today the shorters will begin to face margin calls and will be forced to either buy in the open market or put up cash.

    To quote a successful Senatorial candidate from Iowa..."Make them squeal til it hurts..."

    I have bin following your blogs endo and von. Thanks for your contributions.

    GSA

  • Reply to

    Medical Device Tax is History

    by bottomlinefury Nov 4, 2014 11:49 PM
    andersongordon@ymail.com andersongordon Dec 19, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    The White House will not fight this if 11 Democratic Senators are willing to join with the 56 Republican and "Independent" Senators. A recalcitrant POTUS has vowed to veto the proposal and I believe him. Next year there will be a repeated attempt at the end of the Presidents term and then the Democratic Senators up for reelection will think twice whether they want to stand along side him or stand as an "independent" thinker. I give the tax a (20%+30%) 50% chance of being repealed before 2017.

    GSA

NVDQ
14.23-0.07(-0.49%)Jan 30 4:00 PMEST

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