thanks for the post. I see that the IDXX decision has some people freaked out. I wonder if there is any precedent for a pharma having done this.
SO obviously the question is what exactly is the value-add for using MWI versus trying to go it alone?
The point is IDXX apparently thinks their relationshio with MWI was not in their best interests, and or, they can do better themselves.
What would be really interesting is if MWI could basicall mimic a PBM or leverage all their relationships and act as a COOP whereby an independent would find it virtually impractical to purchase veterinary products outside MWI, and the drug companies would feel the same way where it would be just too costly to try to manage thousands of relationships where just one would do.
I'm still learning and not buying, especially as the stock continues to wind down of late
and I'm all in.
We have way too many poor people in the U.S. to stoke inflation like we had in the 70's.
Here's the stat that proves it
"the bottom 90% of U.S. households have an average household income of about $29,000"
We are a nation of poor people.
I think you should expect that scenario. I would not be surprised in the least if they raise the fed funds rate to 50bp, and we get to 180bp or lower on the ten year in 2015
I will be out however if they come within 50bps of crossing.
I'm man enough to admit lobster was/is right about this one. I'm out at 10.60 for a basically a net zero gain. good luck all.
I'm to guess it would not be great for U.S. relations if there were ETFs that looked to capitalize on another country's misfortune.
Could you imagine a Tel-Aviv stock exchange 2X short ETF? People would be out for blood.
whatever the case, I'm bullish on the UST and bearish on PIIGS and most euro sovereigns (but only in theory)
can't believe france and italy are supposedly a better credit than UST. It seems all the european sovereigns are really espensive vis a vis UST.
the way I see it, either the UST hits new all-time highs or those european bonds fall big time.
Disney is the undisputed entertainment leader of the world. They are trading at 19X 2015 EPS.
I hardly think we are overvalued at $90.
Amazon and Facebook with similar market caps are overvalued.
I learn something new most every day. Just googled MWIV and can't believe I never heard of them.
Out of curiosity, can you give me the bull thesis on owning this?
Do they act like a PBM? and help negotiate pricing for vet clinics? what is their market share, are there private competitors in the same space.
Love to learn more.
and yes, it's great ZTS is finally moving.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
i just don't see any reason to buy protection yet. at current projected 2015 EPS we have a high quality stock trading at about 12X. There were alot of naysayers who actually thought the govt was going to get involved capping reimbusement.
which of course is ludricous and would fundamentally alter the entire pharma industry. It would be akin to saying from now on all gains in IRA will be taxed.
This is anything but expensive.
I'm still projecting 130-140 for end of year, which is still quite conservative.
What do you know about what goes on in zoos? Do you work at one? I'm sure there a lot of meds given.
The Leopard at my zoo looks really depressed, anyone can see that.
Right, under the premise of the Seaworld activists, we should basically close the San Diego Zoo, as well as all zoos. Now if the Documentary people/activists want to challenge the entire zoo and Aquarium industry, THEN I will find no fault with them. But this notion that "Seaworld is evil, and everything else is A-OK bothers me greatly since there is no real difference when it comes to animals in captivity.
Now, some say, well at zoos no is making a Polar bear perform, but really, so what? It's all degrading and sucks for the bear or whatever animal we're talking about.
I just happen to think this is a cause celebre for the whacko extremists at the moment.
I don't necessarily disagree with them altogether, but find their tactics and aggression exploitative for their own agenda.
OK, I can work with that premise. So if the animal is small and unintelligent, we can place it in captivity. So this means we should free all dolphins, elephants, sharks, primates, most large cats, bears, owls and any other smart animal I can't think of.
The point is this witch hunt opens a pandora's box of questions about how we view our relationships with animals.
Maybe we should go as far as making it illegal to own a dog or cat. Of course, we'll have to re-examine the entire animal husbandry industry. If anything, the problems there make this Seaworld story seem absurd.
so what's next for you, closing all zoos and aquariums? Those petting zoos are also torturous. Maybe we should completely shut down the dairy industry, those animals are held against their will you know.
IF what Seaworld does is so reprehensible, what does this say about all zoos, animal parks, aquariums and parks that feature dolphins? (I won't bring us circuses, because I actually think their treatment of elephants is beyond the pale.)
If we are to stay consistent with the Documentary's premise, shouldn't we close all zoos, animal parks, aquariums, and outdoor marinas?
The director of Documentary is on record for saying that these animals should be in the wild, where "they often swim 100 miles in a day"
Well this is true with just about any large animal that lives in the ocean.
What about the gazelle or lion at your local zoo, what about this captivity? What does this say about our relationship with Animals altogether? What about dairy farms? Ever been to one? That's captivity if you ask me.
I'm not really sure what the answer are, but it sure looks to me that Seaworld is being singled out for this hatchet job.
How are shareholders going to do well when they have 3.5 BILLION in debt? This is more than 2X their revenues and a double digit multiple of ebitda.
They announce yet another deal for American Blanching. To this investor, it seems POST management is leveraging this company way outside my comfort zone.
Any bulls wish to comment on this debt?
not sure, but I would look at a historical chart of Pfizer during the Lipitor launch as a template. Pfizer stock went up roughly 200% then began to stagnate only after about 2 years.
Here's the good news though:
Gilead will not have to spend billions advertising like Pfizer did with Lipitor
Gilead for the foreseeable future will not have "me too" competitors
Here's the bad news:
Gilead already trades at a large market cap
Gilead will always face the spectre of negative publicity for outsized profits and competition from the "next best thing" on the horizon.
Ultimately, I think Gilead's gains will take place through all of this year and the first half of next year. After that, it will stagnate at a market cap of probably close to $200B All bets are off if other drugs begin adding meaningful to earnings, where we might possibly see the world's first $300B giant pharma
Of course there are obstacles. There were obstacles with Viterra, there were A LOT of obstacles with Nexen, The list goes on and the deals get done
The North Sea JV problems have been well known for a couple years at this point. Anything positive here will be a huge upside for the stock. I'm not claiming to be an expert on this JV, but like I said, the problems are well-known and who's to say not fixable?
I wouldn't be surprised if Sinopec became a bidder as well. They have a love affair with Canadian companies.
There is nothing worse than reading garbage from somebody who admittedly sold out earlier this year. It's either sour grapes when the stock rises, or "i told you so" when the stock goes down.
Either way it's garbage and adds nothing to the discussion.
As for lobster, it's already established he's a bitter man with questionable motives.
One thing is for sure, these two characters will be long gone if and when a deal takes place at much higher prices.