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The Walt Disney Company Message Board

andevenabs 58 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2014 1:45 PM Member since: Dec 17, 2001
  • Reply to

    There goes GILD

    by mjjk1 Jul 29, 2014 10:44 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 29, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    one would certified crazy to be short this stock right now. I maintain that a $130-$140 level is very reasonable considering EPS estimates for 2015 are approaching $9
    Show me ANY drug company with this kind of earnings power.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by smokedlobster Jul 23, 2014 9:50 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 23, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    It's going to be great to watch you eat humble pie. I suppose the rationale for Talisman to exit the Statoil JV totally escapes you.
    That's what I thought.
    Carl Icahn is the man.

  • andevenabs andevenabs Jul 23, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    So they can't do Diff Eq or understand Hegel's dialectic, but they know how to make money.
    Something that eludes you.

  • andevenabs andevenabs Jul 23, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    There are a number of dealmakers on the BOD.
    Talisman seems ready and willing, and so am I.

  • andevenabs andevenabs Jul 23, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    Who is Innsbrook and why are you quoting someone obviously so stupid?
    Let me break it down for you, the variable cost for producing one Solvadi pill is probably about a $1 and it sells for $1000.
    Ever here of LIPITOR? This is even better.
    So tell me, what does IBM have except for some low margin services and junk?

  • It's going to be great.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • andevenabs andevenabs Jul 22, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    nobody cares what you think, bitter man.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • andevenabs andevenabs Jul 22, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Here's the thing, many doubters say two things that will hurt Gilead, one is a near impossibility based on precedent, the other is possible, albeit a minimum several years out.
    First, the doubters seem to think that the Govt will force Gilead to lower the price of Solvadi either through decree or through some governmental process. This would and cannot happen. It would completely turn the entire biopharmeceutical industry on its head and practically decimate it. It would be the worst kind of govt interference the U.S. has ever contemplated. Two, the special interests/lobbying involved has too much power and influence for this topic to get beyond just a conversation.
    Second, the idea that the PBM's will have an effective coalition with insurers is just nonsense, its good for PR, but that's all. They can say "we're on your side" but they know it's a cheap and inexpensive way to achieve goodwill from consumers and the regulators. If the govt approved Solvadi and it is the best standard of care, the insurers/PBMs would never get away with denying their members this drug, it would be again, unprecedented.
    Third, in the instance of PBM's having a charter/mandate to lower costs, it might be noted that was created to take advantage of generics and biosimilars. BUT, since it is widely accepted that Solvadi is the clear best of breed therapy for Hep C, they don't have a leg to stand on. Fourth, let's not forget what we're really talking about, we're talking about what is best for the patient. God forbid, if I had Hep C, I'd like access to Solvadi, and certainly would be livid if a PBM said, "no, you get PEG, and like it"
    Regarding competing therapies, which there are many, ALL of them still need to go through clinical development and approval which are years away, and some much more.
    The doubters are hoping for two things to happen, one is a near impossibilty, the other is at a minimum several years away, and not likely to affect any est. EPS numbers for years.

  • Reply to

    GE DOWN!!

    by uhuh24 Jul 18, 2014 10:01 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 18, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    yeah, I have some thoughts.
    GE has or attempts to jettison just about every business they can think of. First it's Genworth, then plastics, then some leveraged portfolios,then Credit cards, then Appliances, then what else?
    And what do we have to show for it?
    The better route is to split up this company and let each business operate on its own. We will all be better off.
    Conglomerates DO NOT WORK.
    Until they break this company into at least 3 or 4 parts, this is a LOSER.
    As for Appliances, by the way, if they spun it off to shareholders and let them run themselves, I'm sure they could be a great business.

  • people are finally waking up to the fact that GILD is the cheapest major pharma in the world by a huge amount.
    Applying a market multiple PE on GILD gives us $140.
    And that's being conservative.

  • Reply to

    Nice Day today..

    by gsnid1099 Jul 14, 2014 4:04 PM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 14, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    based on every major pharma's PE multiples, Gilead should be trading closer to $140 and possibly as high as $180
    $90 is a joke and I just bought more today.
    Solvadi will be the all-time blockbuster drug in history. It's ramp is already unprecedented. EPS for next year is estimated at $8.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • andevenabs andevenabs Jul 7, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    no you didn't and you know it.
    You are sour grapes after having sold in the low 30's

  • Reply to

    Can this go to the 300s?

    by shazzam517 Jul 3, 2014 1:39 PM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 3, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    I agree, except for Exxon Mobil, that number is stratospheric. I do think we could see a 200 billion market cap if all goes right, that would put shares close to $135. Cisco at one time had a market cap of about 450B if memory serves, but as for a large pharma, I think the largest number I've ever seen was around 250B.
    Can anyone dispute this?

  • Reply to

    My view

    by airlineprofessor Jul 3, 2014 9:24 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 3, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    I didn't give you thumb's down BTW, Anyhow, yes we are both bullish you can say. Sorry for being so strident. Have a great 4th.

  • Reply to

    My view

    by airlineprofessor Jul 3, 2014 9:24 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 3, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    I agree. And this nonsense about "mideast carriers" elbowing in AALs gates or whatever is just ridiculous.
    I cannot think of a more stupid thing to say.

  • Reply to

    My view

    by airlineprofessor Jul 3, 2014 9:24 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 3, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    and by the way DAL is trading at 12X 2014 EPS, whereas AAL is about 7. I thought it's a matter of agreement that at worst, AAL is AT LEAST as good as DAL, which if true means at the DAL mulitple, AAL should be trading at near $60.
    But since we (or most analysts) think AAL is a better run, better prospect airline, why on earth would you say moving up from the current $42 is going to be difficult?

  • Reply to

    My view

    by airlineprofessor Jul 3, 2014 9:24 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 3, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    you're talking out of both sides of your mouth.
    Bottom line is Delta is not AAL, and based on 2014 and 2015 estimated EPS, AAL is still very cheap, and arguably, the best single value play in the S&P 500.
    If it isn't, tell me which is better? Possibly Gilead, but that is riding entirely on Solvadi.
    You say it's going to be difficult for AAL to move up at less than 7X 2015 EPS? What?
    This is a industry growth story and AAL is at the forefront along with LUV.
    I think many people are going to be very sorry they sold here, especially when at the current market multiple, AAL could be well north of $100 in 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by cashewking05301 Jul 2, 2014 9:55 PM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 3, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    it would never pass European regulators.
    I still can't figure out why CNHI is mired in a news desert. For such a large important company you would think it would at least occasionally be in the news.
    I'm not sure what to think of this company. One thing is for sure, they have decimated their brand awareness by calling themselves CHNI and not "Case New Holland Ind."
    if I were running things, the first thing I would do is change the name to Case New-Holland Ind. and set aside a few million for brand awareness, and do a couple roadshows.

  • Reply to

    Take Out

    by andtheysaidwhat Jun 30, 2014 9:06 AM
    andevenabs andevenabs Jul 2, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    Pelt understands that BK is the undisputed world custodian investment services leader.Its AUC is nearing 28 trillion. They are the largest clearing and settlement firm in the world, and they are either 1, 2, or 3 in virtually every back office operation in the world like collateral,and other broker dealer services.
    These business have a pretty wide moat and basically operate like an oligopoly between State Street, JPM and a couple others.
    wealth management should be spun-off, which is probably what he'll be agitating for.

  • andevenabs by andevenabs Jun 30, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    This is just what I was hoping for.
    $50 here we come.

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