not sure, but I would look at a historical chart of Pfizer during the Lipitor launch as a template. Pfizer stock went up roughly 200% then began to stagnate only after about 2 years.
Here's the good news though:
Gilead will not have to spend billions advertising like Pfizer did with Lipitor
Gilead for the foreseeable future will not have "me too" competitors
Here's the bad news:
Gilead already trades at a large market cap
Gilead will always face the spectre of negative publicity for outsized profits and competition from the "next best thing" on the horizon.
Ultimately, I think Gilead's gains will take place through all of this year and the first half of next year. After that, it will stagnate at a market cap of probably close to $200B All bets are off if other drugs begin adding meaningful to earnings, where we might possibly see the world's first $300B giant pharma
Of course there are obstacles. There were obstacles with Viterra, there were A LOT of obstacles with Nexen, The list goes on and the deals get done
The North Sea JV problems have been well known for a couple years at this point. Anything positive here will be a huge upside for the stock. I'm not claiming to be an expert on this JV, but like I said, the problems are well-known and who's to say not fixable?
I wouldn't be surprised if Sinopec became a bidder as well. They have a love affair with Canadian companies.
There is nothing worse than reading garbage from somebody who admittedly sold out earlier this year. It's either sour grapes when the stock rises, or "i told you so" when the stock goes down.
Either way it's garbage and adds nothing to the discussion.
As for lobster, it's already established he's a bitter man with questionable motives.
One thing is for sure, these two characters will be long gone if and when a deal takes place at much higher prices.
one would certified crazy to be short this stock right now. I maintain that a $130-$140 level is very reasonable considering EPS estimates for 2015 are approaching $9
Show me ANY drug company with this kind of earnings power.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It's going to be great to watch you eat humble pie. I suppose the rationale for Talisman to exit the Statoil JV totally escapes you.
That's what I thought.
Carl Icahn is the man.
So they can't do Diff Eq or understand Hegel's dialectic, but they know how to make money.
Something that eludes you.
There are a number of dealmakers on the BOD.
Talisman seems ready and willing, and so am I.
Who is Innsbrook and why are you quoting someone obviously so stupid?
Let me break it down for you, the variable cost for producing one Solvadi pill is probably about a $1 and it sells for $1000.
Ever here of LIPITOR? This is even better.
So tell me, what does IBM have except for some low margin services and junk?
Here's the thing, many doubters say two things that will hurt Gilead, one is a near impossibility based on precedent, the other is possible, albeit a minimum several years out.
First, the doubters seem to think that the Govt will force Gilead to lower the price of Solvadi either through decree or through some governmental process. This would and cannot happen. It would completely turn the entire biopharmeceutical industry on its head and practically decimate it. It would be the worst kind of govt interference the U.S. has ever contemplated. Two, the special interests/lobbying involved has too much power and influence for this topic to get beyond just a conversation.
Second, the idea that the PBM's will have an effective coalition with insurers is just nonsense, its good for PR, but that's all. They can say "we're on your side" but they know it's a cheap and inexpensive way to achieve goodwill from consumers and the regulators. If the govt approved Solvadi and it is the best standard of care, the insurers/PBMs would never get away with denying their members this drug, it would be again, unprecedented.
Third, in the instance of PBM's having a charter/mandate to lower costs, it might be noted that was created to take advantage of generics and biosimilars. BUT, since it is widely accepted that Solvadi is the clear best of breed therapy for Hep C, they don't have a leg to stand on. Fourth, let's not forget what we're really talking about, we're talking about what is best for the patient. God forbid, if I had Hep C, I'd like access to Solvadi, and certainly would be livid if a PBM said, "no, you get PEG, and like it"
Regarding competing therapies, which there are many, ALL of them still need to go through clinical development and approval which are years away, and some much more.
The doubters are hoping for two things to happen, one is a near impossibilty, the other is at a minimum several years away, and not likely to affect any est. EPS numbers for years.
yeah, I have some thoughts.
GE has or attempts to jettison just about every business they can think of. First it's Genworth, then plastics, then some leveraged portfolios,then Credit cards, then Appliances, then what else?
And what do we have to show for it?
The better route is to split up this company and let each business operate on its own. We will all be better off.
Conglomerates DO NOT WORK.
Until they break this company into at least 3 or 4 parts, this is a LOSER.
As for Appliances, by the way, if they spun it off to shareholders and let them run themselves, I'm sure they could be a great business.
people are finally waking up to the fact that GILD is the cheapest major pharma in the world by a huge amount.
Applying a market multiple PE on GILD gives us $140.
And that's being conservative.
based on every major pharma's PE multiples, Gilead should be trading closer to $140 and possibly as high as $180
$90 is a joke and I just bought more today.
Solvadi will be the all-time blockbuster drug in history. It's ramp is already unprecedented. EPS for next year is estimated at $8.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree, except for Exxon Mobil, that number is stratospheric. I do think we could see a 200 billion market cap if all goes right, that would put shares close to $135. Cisco at one time had a market cap of about 450B if memory serves, but as for a large pharma, I think the largest number I've ever seen was around 250B.
Can anyone dispute this?
I agree. And this nonsense about "mideast carriers" elbowing in AALs gates or whatever is just ridiculous.
I cannot think of a more stupid thing to say.
and by the way DAL is trading at 12X 2014 EPS, whereas AAL is about 7. I thought it's a matter of agreement that at worst, AAL is AT LEAST as good as DAL, which if true means at the DAL mulitple, AAL should be trading at near $60.
But since we (or most analysts) think AAL is a better run, better prospect airline, why on earth would you say moving up from the current $42 is going to be difficult?
you're talking out of both sides of your mouth.
Bottom line is Delta is not AAL, and based on 2014 and 2015 estimated EPS, AAL is still very cheap, and arguably, the best single value play in the S&P 500.
If it isn't, tell me which is better? Possibly Gilead, but that is riding entirely on Solvadi.
You say it's going to be difficult for AAL to move up at less than 7X 2015 EPS? What?
This is a industry growth story and AAL is at the forefront along with LUV.
I think many people are going to be very sorry they sold here, especially when at the current market multiple, AAL could be well north of $100 in 2015.
Sentiment: Strong Buy