Are you scared of tomorrows open and where it will close end of this week? Did you short the stock at a price lower than $4.60?
I think closer to $6-$7. I think we hit $5 in the next 3- 6months(maybe sooner with any new wins or IP licensing deal). Q4 will be profitable quarter for AMD, if you have Q1-17 profitable for AMD with full year guidance of profit, this thing can easily be over $7 by March 2017..
As expected... starting to go red now. After almost 2 weeks of going up, its starting to consolidate. Should provide some good entry point as profit taking pushes this down.. It will be over $5 in 3-6 months.
looking at the charts, looks like AMD will fluctuate here, maybe go down a little and test below $4, for the next 3-4 weeks, before beginning its upward journey. Good earnings in July will take it to $5. If it falls below $4, its a good buy. Its healthy to have some consolidation before moving up again.
I think the AMD CEO and CFO know a little more than you do. If you listen to the last cc and they were indicating that they expect AMD to be profitable by end of the year. So pretty sure they have a very good idea of what the WSA cost for 2016 will be and have already accounted for it. If there is any meaningful financial impact it will be a positive one because of additional $1.5B+ from Intel as part of IP licensing agreement or a from major new design wins.
AMD is seriously undervalued and every attempt to take it down in any meaningful way is met with more buying and less number of shares available for short covering. Stock might cool down for a week or two, before it resumes its rally again or it might just keep rallying until next quarter earnings on July 11th.
If it keeps below 3.98, just buy as much as you can and then check back in January 2017 and you'll be very happy. AMD has a number of announcements that will pop the stock from the last quarter cc. 1) Further IP licensing deal.. Could be $1.5Billion as speculated by WSJ with Intel. 2) New additional SoC wins 3) Quarter earnings beating estimates and maybe becoming profitable 4) New Zen wins 5) improving margins 6) New Polaris wins.
I think this runs up to $4.26 by end of June and then we wait of earnings guidance in July. Any news of additional IP licensing or additional wins by Zen or SoC before July would send this higher than $4.26
May 2016 secondary price offering $208.. I wonder if the people who bought in the September 2015 secondary offering are feeling upset(I'm not long or short Tesla)
Did you see my prediction and did you see the news.. Learn little boy how the game is played.
Goldman will try to run up the stock before the news of the secondary offering.. Watch and learn
Stock would have been up $3 if Dewalt was fired. Unfortunately he is still the chairman of the board and will try to control things from there, which is why the stock dropped. Wall street has 0 confidence in Dewalt and what he says and the fact that he will still remain chairman just helped push this stock down.
You have a lot of positive things lining up including possible deals. Intel licensing deal which was quoted by WSJ at $1.5B.. You also have semi-custom royalty payments of $1.5B in next 3 years. You have royalty payments from THATIC once they start shipping parts(2 years out). Polaris and Zen wins. They need to use the cash from all of these events to pretty much pay of the debt... The biggest thing is that they are going to be profitable by end of the year.
If it closes above $3.6, my guess would be that this is very structured and a large mutual fund company that is moving money and positions around across different funds. I was cautiously optimistic going into earnings and didn't expect a 1-2 punch which basically ran up the stock on Friday.
If you listen to the cc, there are a number of positive things the CEO & CFO said that are coming in the next 2 quarters, so no surprise if there is a steady position being built by some funds which leads to a run-up before the next earnings call. Most analyst will come back to this in a month or two after their companies have loaded up and raise the AMD ratings and guidance. I loaded up at $3.41 with a tight stop.
For all those looking to spread rumors, let me add one more.
Looking to load up more. It should be up at-least another 50% by this time a year from now.. t went up way to fast on Friday, so entry at 3.20-3.30 looks very good.
What would AMD be valued at in next 2 quarters? It is still significantly undervalued at $3.6B. Wall street looks ahead a couple of quarters and the company is going to be profitable which would double the stock from here.
I don't know why anybody would want to short at this levels, since even if you assume the company is not going to be profitable, a lot of companies would be able to break-up AMD and buy the pieces for more then $3.6B.
The best thing that happened to AMD was that they started losing PC share 3 years ago.. That forced them to go after gaming, VR, GPU, etc, etc markets.. If you listen to Intel conference call, you will realize that Intel is now turning the ship around full steam focused on markets other than PC(PC will still continue to be bread an butter for a while), but they realize that growth is not going to come from PC.. AMD sort of ended up in this position 2-3 years ago with them losing to the Intel processors.. In fact it is almost come around a full circle, where AMD now has Zen to compete in the PC market and gain market share and at the same time their revenues from all the other areas like graphics, gaming, semi-custom etc is increasing.
I don't think it is optimism that justifies a $2.2B valuation for a company making close to $4B in revenue.. The company just announced that it is going to become profitable in 2 quarters.. It announced that revenue is going to increase in each of its segments, revenue is going to increase from embedded chip royalties, they are going to get cash from sale of the ATMP facility this quarter, driving cash over $1B, they are going to get further cash from the JV with China and also royalties.. This is all going to happen in next quarter to two.
The wildcard is Intel signing a licensing deal with them driving it up even further. Even with today's upside, the value is still $3.5B for a company whose revenue is going to be closer to $4B/yr. This company is not like Valent with $15B in debt.. This company has a $2B debt and will have over $1B in cash. Learn how to value a company. I was short for over 1.5 years, and I went long this quarter for the simple reason that everything worse had been priced in.