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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Message Board

andi8546 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 2:16 PM Member since: Oct 27, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Disappointing Management team

    by andi8546 Apr 17, 2014 11:52 AM
    andi8546 andi8546 Apr 17, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    I'd love to sell it if I was making a profit.. Unfortunately of all the stocks that I've held for the past 3 years, this is the ONLY looser of a stock.. Pretty much every stock has seen a nice run-up from 2010-2011. I'm a long-term investor so my horizons are not quarter to quarter, but at a certain point you have to question the efficacy of the management team and the shareholder return they provide, while continuing to get paid in the millions. We all love the bank CEO's who bailed in 2007-2008 and got $100/mil in pay packages..right? S&P, Dow, Nasdaq are all up 50+% over the last 3-4 years and this stock is down 50%.

    It seems you love the management team at AMD so really makes me wonder if you are clueless or just inept and can't see the fact that a good management team that can turn around a company and this company is floundering because it does not have a good mgmt. team in place.. Its been 3yrs+ and the company has still not recovered. If Icahn or Einhorn or Ackman were involved with this company, they would be chewing these guys out.

  • AMD has been quite a disappointing stock to hold for the past few years.. In my opinion, the mgmt is absolutely useless and probably one of the worst teams around.. CEO + 10 SVP + 30 Corporate VP's.. Talk about waste of money there, to the tune of $25-$30M(maybe more in salaries) and all they have been able to accomplish is bring the revenue down. You can argue that they are winning new business/revenue stream from gaming consoles, but that is all low margin business, compared to the 40+% margin business for the processors..

    2011 - Revenue $6.5B - Stock price $8+. 2012 - Revenue $5.4B - Stock price $5+, 2013 - Revenue $5.29B - Stock price - $2.5. I'm hoping for revenue to go up due to game consoles, but if that is low margin business it does not help the earnings in any significant way and if that is coupled with decline in the high margin processor business, then I don't think stock is going to go anywhere. Disappointing to see that with $25-$30Mil every year being spent on the executives, this is what AMD has managed to produce 3yrs later.

    Seems to me that support is at $3.40 and ceiling is at $4.05, so hopefully after earnings it continues in this channel, but as a long term investor, I really had hoped for better performance from AMD.

  • andi8546 andi8546 Apr 1, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Tim Cook had said that they will be evaluating dividend & buyback in the next 60 days on Feb 28th, so I expect some announcement to happen by end of April. I doubt it will do anything to send the stock soaring, since Apple mgmt is very conservative and the dividend increase is going to be modest at best.

  • Reply to

    dilution

    by kenhenriksen Feb 27, 2014 11:47 AM
    andi8546 andi8546 Feb 27, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Minus the original buyback and minus the $1Billion in proceeds they got from Coke.. So not sure how much dilution will happen.. Its safe to say, its way less then the amount of shares shorted.

  • don't forget there is a board meeting on the 28th with a possibility of a new larger buyback being announced after the 28th.. It looks like the pin is 525 or 530 for this week, but next week should be interesting with the upcoming board meeting. Apple buying TSLA was clearly a rumor started by somebody short apple long tesla.

  • Reply to

    no 550... no aea team tomorrow

    by davidchonefour Feb 14, 2014 9:51 AM
    andi8546 andi8546 Feb 14, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    davidchonefour & AEA.. any predictions for close today and for Monday? Thanks for the advice.

  • Reply to

    David Faber Transparent attempt

    by ubydoobie Feb 14, 2014 9:47 AM
    andi8546 andi8546 Feb 14, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Drop CNBC from your channel lineup and you'll be surprised as to how much better you get with trading. I used to watch them all the time and would always be late to the party and reacting. I don't listen to them at all and that forces me to do my own due diligence a bit more then some talking head tell me buy..buy..buy or sell..sell..sell. Fire CNBC and you'll be happy.

  • Reply to

    $1.25Billion buyback

    by andi8546 Feb 13, 2014 10:15 AM
    andi8546 andi8546 Feb 13, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    They already have an existing buyback under which they are spending money buying stock. So not sure why they could not spend additional money as part of closing the deal.. Also the end of March period is due to some government approvals, but agreement have already been put into place and pretty sure there is money that has changed hands already. 8-K was already filed and done with. The way this stock is moving up, there is definitely deep pockets involved here that is pushing this up.

  • andi8546 andi8546 Feb 13, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Works both ways.. It went from 100 to 43 in 3 weeks when Einhorn announced a short position so he could window dress his year end gains in 2011 (look from October to November 2011). The stock should have been over $120 in 2012 if not for all the hype from Einhorn. The company has grown revenues, earnings, buybacks and new products from 2011 thru 2013, so this stock is just catching up and now with the KO deal, its going to go higher.

  • Did GMCR say they would use the additional KO proceeds of $1.25B to buyback the shares by end of March, when the deal closes or was that going to be sometime after March?

  • andi8546 andi8546 Feb 13, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    That's funny $8 machine.. You must be really hurting in your short position. You can't even get a plain drip coffee maker for $8, much less a single server machine, but hey keep believing that and keep shorting.. We all love the 24 million shares that are still shorted.

  • How much money has John Chambers made for himself in the last yea? Then you need to look at the shareholder performance of Cisco for the last year and you will realize, that Chambers is one of the worst CEO's.. The stock has gone nowhere and Chambers has collected millions in salary and equity. Cisco board is completely dead and people need to short the stock of all the companies that the Cisco Board is involved in any executive position. Incompetence is Incompetence and when the board and CEO are this incompetent, it will show up at the other companies also, where they are involved.

  • Reply to

    why crisco down so mash?

    by davidchonefour Feb 12, 2014 4:27 PM
    andi8546 andi8546 Feb 12, 2014 7:13 PM Flag

    No.. its bad CEO. There are very few guarantee's in life.. One of them is when John Chambers talks, the stock goes down. Replace the CEO like MSFT and CSCO stock will be at 30.

  • Apple hitting 532-533 as you predicted yesterday. Any thoughts on going long/short here? Thanks for your advice.

  • Reply to

    531.99... so close but so far away

    by davidchonefour Feb 10, 2014 4:02 PM
    andi8546 andi8546 Feb 10, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    Thanks to you and AEA for some great call. I owe AEA a lot more then a few pennies.. Been long after earnings based on AEA's call.

  • andi8546 andi8546 Feb 10, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    Thank you very much. Always value your advice and thanks for recommending to buy at 500-505 levels!!

  • andi8546 andi8546 Feb 10, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    Hi AEA,
    Is this a short term sell(for this week) at this level or is there more room left this week? I think Icahn knows about how much more buyback is being proposed for Feb 28th, so he has decided to back away. There is definitely an additional buyback on the table for the Feb 28th meeting. Thanks for your advice.

  • Reply to

    Long 8k aapl at 518.65

    by aea_k72 Feb 7, 2014 10:21 AM
    andi8546 andi8546 Feb 7, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Thanks..

  • andi8546 andi8546 Feb 6, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    You have a party and 4 people want 4 different things.. 1 -coke, 1-diet coke, 1 sprite, 1 -orange soda.. You really want to go to the grocery store, buy 2-liter bottles of each item or 6-pack cans of each item.. Come on.. I rather stick a Soda K-cup of each flavor and instant soda.. To answer your question, it is absolutely yes.. People want to make their own soda at home. People didn't want to spend $100 bucks for a soda machine, hence Sodastream penetration has been low, but a lot of people will buy a machine that can do coffee, soup and soda!!

  • Just because Einhorn wanted to make a quick buck, he quietly setup his position and announced to the world some bahh humbug story and we have the rest of the genius who want to follow him. The real story is Einhorn has quietly sold most of his position. Its time some reporter needs to ask Einhorn if he indeed has a larger short position then when he first shorted this name.. You'll be surprised as to what you find.

    Green Mountain is now at the cusp of a evolutionary shift. They will be able to provide a system that will make coffee in the morning, Soup and or Soda and all you need is K-cups for Coffe, K-cups for Soda and K-Cups for Soup. Scan the appropriate K-cup and it will heat up the water for Soup and Coffee or keep it cool for Soda. Secondly they have huge K-cup install base and now they will probably make money on K-cup soups and K-cup soda.. Coco Cola will probably make the K-cups, but GMCR might get some patent royalty. Also there is a huge cost savings for Coke here.. They don't have to worry about water filtration, bottling, packging and ridiculous transportation cost of carry all that carbonated water. KO can make much higher profit margins if people start making Soda's at home. Sodastream is harder business, since they are not in every home. GMCR due to their coffee franchise is in pretty much every home. This instantly makes use of that coffee machine to deliver Soup & Soda. The CEO of GMCR should be praised. The financials are solid, buybacks are at an all time high, company with this new deals will continue to grow selling K-cups for coffee, soup and Soda now and to top it all they are paying dividends. Short as you will, but with more deals and more products, this will only go higher over time.

AAPL
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