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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

andre_y_mb 198 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 17, 2014 9:38 PM Member since: Sep 19, 2012
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  • Reply to

    current thoughts on ATRS

    by tappyt_2014 Nov 17, 2014 11:07 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 17, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    Why frightening. As any religion, it is beautiful.

  • Reply to

    Institutional Ownership

    by whogo70 Nov 15, 2014 4:14 PM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 17, 2014 9:36 PM Flag

    The real inspiration comes from the simple wisdom of something like that "ATRS story has never been as crystal clear and easy to understand as it is now"
    Amazing.....

  • Reply to

    deerfield

    by andre_y_mb Nov 16, 2014 11:52 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 17, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    affirmed, salty
    agree that it is backward indicator.
    However I remember the same discussion when Orbimed sold the first 20%. Someone here was having the same argument about "backward info". ATRS was at about 4 dollars. Today we are fighting to hold 2.30.
    I am not saying that it's a tragedy but for me is a red flag and definitively I do not like it.

  • Reply to

    OT AMBI

    by andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 8:27 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 17, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    syenfrout
    today we got the last overhang for ESPR removed.The Merck news is excellent for ....espr.
    The market reaction was modes - only 6%. But the big player are on notice - ESPR is now on the radar for BO. I typically do not give price target, because the condition can change overnight for small biotech, but in this case my target is derisked - 74 dollars in the next one year.
    good luck
    BTW look into FGEN. Antibody for IPF is a dream if true. The results so far look encouraging.

  • Reply to

    deerfield

    by andre_y_mb Nov 16, 2014 11:52 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 16, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Nobody knows that.
    However what I know is that if a fund start to sell, there is a high probability that they want so exit. Orbimed also started with 20% reduction and eventually they are completely out.
    Or course we can ignore the Deerfield news, but it is definitively a red flag to follow on Feb 15.
    Personally I do not like the institutional holding trend and I will reduce my position by 30% at the end of the year.
    ATRS was attractive with two large specialized healthcare funds (Orbimed and Deerfield). Today is half so attractive. Let see how attractive will be on Feb 15

  • andre_y_mb by andre_y_mb Nov 16, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    reduced their ATRS holding by 18.5% Not a good sign. They may follow Orbimed and exit completely.::((
    If somebody is looking for red flags, that is one to watch closely.
    On the plus side Broadfin increased their position, but not enough to pick all deerfield shares.

    All in all - the management is not doing a good job to attract the institutional holders, what ever this clown JH is telling us.

  • Reply to

    xnpt vs fwp

    by andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 10:55 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 15, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    Yes, both fwp and xnpt are after Tecfidera. They all will eventually share the market.
    I am not sure about 20 dollars PT, but at least 15 is reasonable - of course after successful psoriasis Ph II trail and announcement of a registration trail in RRMS.

  • Reply to

    OT AMBI

    by andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 8:27 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    syenfront, market cap is still very reasonable.
    The caveat is that FDA may request a study to prove that lowering LDL lowers the risk for hearth failure. Watch for Amgen (AMGN) - they already filed its PCSK9 antibody (evolocumab).

    If approved it means LDL-C is an approvable endpoint and I expect ESPR to explode after that decision.
    It is counter-intuitive to say that the approval of a drug of the competitor will be positive for the company, but in reality it will remove the only one overhang for ESP to become 2-3B company.
    My prediction is after the approval of AMGN evolocumab someone will buy ESPR because the intrinsic value of the company will jump.

  • Reply to

    OT AMBI

    by andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 8:27 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Recently there was an IPO of FWP, valuing the technology at 1B.
    BIIB made 2B in a year with DMF as API.
    Both XNPT and FWP have better, slow release version for one pill a day.

    FWP is a bit ahead of XNPT - they already applied for a Phase III trail in RRMS, but I do not believe it justifies 2x market cap. In addition XNPT has an approved drug on the market (HORIZANT for restless legs syndrome), which is nothing special as cash flow but brings some cash to support the R&D.

    In this respect XNPT and ATRS are quite similar - ATRS has OTREXUP which is also nothing special as cash source, but will support the QST R&D and launch.

  • andre_y_mb by andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    if somebody is wondering about the uptrend in the last month, look into FWP. They had and IPO a month ago.
    Their drug is based on DMF as an API. They are a bit ahead of the game - already asked FDA to approve Ph 3 in RRMS, but does it justify 2 x valuation?

  • andre_y_mb by andre_y_mb Nov 13, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    If somebody played the CVR game - today 15 dollars per share were deposited to my account plus one CVR per share. Potentially it can yield 4.50.

  • andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 11, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    camry
    I hope you recover fast!!
    I know what means to be pinned to a bed for months. 5 years ago I was in a similar situation.

  • Reply to

    hmm...

    by centswrth Nov 10, 2014 8:29 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 11, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    mauouo
    At the current burn rate they still should have above 100M at the end of Q2 2015. In August they said that SAGE-547 pivotal trial in SRSE will start early / mid 2015.
    Starting Ph 3 with 100M cash is good enough, unless they spread too thin over multiple programs.
    With the Ph 2 data they may apply and may receive a Breakthrough designation. This process is NOT transparent so we will not know until the BTD is granted. This would be nice surprise for Q1 or Q2.

  • andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 11, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    camry, agree, 10% in a few days is awesome. I was just teasing you.::))

  • andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 11, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    You are excited by 10% gain? I do not believe SLXP pain is over, yet.

    I recommended XNPT at 3.80, today is 7.70 (100% in 3 months) and more to come.
    Recently there was an IPO of FWP, valuing the technology at 1B.
    XNPT is only 480M and it is at the same stage of development for MS and psoriasis.
    BIIB made 2B in a year with DMF derivative.
    Both XNPT and FWP have better, slow release version for one pill a day.

  • Reply to

    My thoughts as invaluable as they may be

    by ginnypv15 Nov 11, 2014 7:52 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 11, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    It looks that atrs is doing something right, since some of the old posters are back - ginny, senior.

    We are still missing a couple of cheerleaders.
    Anybody what to predict at what pps level tappy will show up back?

  • Reply to

    Today was a classic sign of upcoming secondary

    by shalomlom Nov 10, 2014 7:26 PM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 11, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    shalom, a valuable inside from a long term (since Nov 9) poster.

  • andre_y_mb by andre_y_mb Nov 10, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    We should give credit to PW that he did not ruin the company with debt, but went for secondary.
    We went from 4 at the secondary to below 2, but we will eventually recover.
    DNDN is an example what an arrogant CEO can do to a decent company.
    PW was also arrogant and could do more damage to atrs. We can relax since he is gone.

    btw, did I post at the beginning of the year that dndn is heading to bankruptcy? Somebody was arguing that I am too harsh to dndn. Hopefully he sold on time. I hate to hear that good guys are loosing money.

  • Reply to

    hmm...

    by centswrth Nov 10, 2014 8:29 AM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 10, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    49M does not include 103M.5 from the IPO. With a burn rate of about 6M per Q, they should report about 145-146M cash at the end of Q3
    They should have enough cash to complete the pivotal trial in SRSE and file for NDA.
    After that either Shire will buy them or become a commercial partner, so they may not need to rise more cash.

  • Reply to

    Hey Whogo

    by blues_fanatic Nov 7, 2014 12:49 PM
    andre_y_mb andre_y_mb Nov 7, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    Good post camry, very thoughtful.

    I wish you fast recovery.
    --andre--

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