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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

andy.strojny 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 3:22 PM Member since: Feb 20, 2013
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  • andy.strojny andy.strojny Apr 24, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    I am reasonably confident that MNKD breaks even with scripts counts of between 50,000 and 70,000 a year. Might be significantly less dependent on cost of the product. That comes to script counts of between 960 and 1350 a week. I tend to think in reality script counts in the 900 range will be more than sufficient. I expect to see that by the end of the year and probably on a trend line that shows them going significantly higher. If script counts keep growing, MNKD is cheaply priced today.

  • Reply to


    by missjessiecat Apr 24, 2015 3:11 PM
    andy.strojny andy.strojny Apr 24, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Good luck

  • Assuming AFREZZA works as well as early adopters are saying, we need to figure out how this translates to share earnings. Based on a 450 million share count (I know that is 50 million above issued shares but being conservative) and given the price of a script reported by Symphony of $470+, what will it take in scripts written given the Sanofi partnership for MNKD to make $1.00 a share, i.e, to gross $450 million in revenue - realize that doesn't include cost of production, but its a start.

    Here is a down and dirty back of the envelope calculation. AFREZZA according to Symphony data has an average selling price of $470 a script. Assuming a 100% markup (and it is probably much higher but lets be conservative), that gives a cost to Mannkind/Sanofi of $235 a script and a profit of $235 a script. (note this is very conservative as the markup is probably way higher). MNKD under the partnership agreement gets 35% of it or $82.25 a script. This assumes the $235 is all profit, wildly optimistic I know, but this is a back of the envelope calculation. So to gross $450,000,000 AFREZZA needs 5,471,124 scripts. According to Symphony data as of the week ending April 17, 2015, there were cumulative scripts of 1945. We're 00036% of the way there. Note: MNKD's profit per script may be consideraly higher so that would very significantly change the calculation.
    But more optimistically . . .to make a penny a share the number of scripts is only 54,712 and we're 3.6% of the way there. So MANNKIND is almost 4% of the way to breaking even!!!! And that with virtually no publicity but social media.

  • andy.strojny andy.strojny Apr 11, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Don't forget under agreement with Sanofi, Sanofi has a right of first refusal, i.e, to match any offer.

  • Reply to

    FREEFALL to $30 has begun....

    by n16m15 Feb 4, 2015 11:54 AM
    andy.strojny andy.strojny Feb 4, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    We'll know soon enough. Reports the last week of February. Street seems to think CBI won't meet expectations. You pays your money and takes your chances.

  • "We expect the further delay of Vogtle Units 3 & 4 to be a negative for CBI shares today and potentially remain
    We expect the further delay of Vogtle Units 3 & 4 to be a negative for CBI shares today and potentially remain an overhang over the near term, given that it may take more than a year to resolve this dispute. That said, the risk to CBI’s cash flow may be lower than the headline cost overrun number suggests for the following reasons: 1) CB&I’s contract with Westinghouse states that certain excess costs can be recovered by Westinghouse, so depending on the cause of delay, CB&I may avoid the cost overrun; 2) In the worst case scenario, the costs would likely be divided between the contractors, so assuming a 50/50 split, CB&I would be responsible for only $370M," continued the analyst.

    "In terms of liquidity risk from this potential charge, the likelihood is low, in our view. Not only can CB&I generate ~$2.5B of cash from its existing backlog over the next 4 years (assumes no new bookings after 3Q14) but it also has $1.3B of its revolver currently available. We expect the next nuclear-related catalyst for CBI to occur on February 27th when the Georgia Public Service Commission releases its semi-annual construction monitoring report," he added.


    Sentiment: Buy