I am reasonably confident that MNKD breaks even with scripts counts of between 50,000 and 70,000 a year. Might be significantly less dependent on cost of the product. That comes to script counts of between 960 and 1350 a week. I tend to think in reality script counts in the 900 range will be more than sufficient. I expect to see that by the end of the year and probably on a trend line that shows them going significantly higher. If script counts keep growing, MNKD is cheaply priced today.
Assuming AFREZZA works as well as early adopters are saying, we need to figure out how this translates to share earnings. Based on a 450 million share count (I know that is 50 million above issued shares but being conservative) and given the price of a script reported by Symphony of $470+, what will it take in scripts written given the Sanofi partnership for MNKD to make $1.00 a share, i.e, to gross $450 million in revenue - realize that doesn't include cost of production, but its a start.
Here is a down and dirty back of the envelope calculation. AFREZZA according to Symphony data has an average selling price of $470 a script. Assuming a 100% markup (and it is probably much higher but lets be conservative), that gives a cost to Mannkind/Sanofi of $235 a script and a profit of $235 a script. (note this is very conservative as the markup is probably way higher). MNKD under the partnership agreement gets 35% of it or $82.25 a script. This assumes the $235 is all profit, wildly optimistic I know, but this is a back of the envelope calculation. So to gross $450,000,000 AFREZZA needs 5,471,124 scripts. According to Symphony data as of the week ending April 17, 2015, there were cumulative scripts of 1945. We're 00036% of the way there. Note: MNKD's profit per script may be consideraly higher so that would very significantly change the calculation.
But more optimistically . . .to make a penny a share the number of scripts is only 54,712 and we're 3.6% of the way there. So MANNKIND is almost 4% of the way to breaking even!!!! And that with virtually no publicity but social media.