I am reasonably confident that MNKD breaks even with scripts counts of between 50,000 and 70,000 a year. Might be significantly less dependent on cost of the product. That comes to script counts of between 960 and 1350 a week. I tend to think in reality script counts in the 900 range will be more than sufficient. I expect to see that by the end of the year and probably on a trend line that shows them going significantly higher. If script counts keep growing, MNKD is cheaply priced today.
Assuming AFREZZA works as well as early adopters are saying, we need to figure out how this translates to share earnings. Based on a 450 million share count (I know that is 50 million above issued shares but being conservative) and given the price of a script reported by Symphony of $470+, what will it take in scripts written given the Sanofi partnership for MNKD to make $1.00 a share, i.e, to gross $450 million in revenue - realize that doesn't include cost of production, but its a start.
Here is a down and dirty back of the envelope calculation. AFREZZA according to Symphony data has an average selling price of $470 a script. Assuming a 100% markup (and it is probably much higher but lets be conservative), that gives a cost to Mannkind/Sanofi of $235 a script and a profit of $235 a script. (note this is very conservative as the markup is probably way higher). MNKD under the partnership agreement gets 35% of it or $82.25 a script. This assumes the $235 is all profit, wildly optimistic I know, but this is a back of the envelope calculation. So to gross $450,000,000 AFREZZA needs 5,471,124 scripts. According to Symphony data as of the week ending April 17, 2015, there were cumulative scripts of 1945. We're 00036% of the way there. Note: MNKD's profit per script may be consideraly higher so that would very significantly change the calculation.
But more optimistically . . .to make a penny a share the number of scripts is only 54,712 and we're 3.6% of the way there. So MANNKIND is almost 4% of the way to breaking even!!!! And that with virtually no publicity but social media.
"We expect the further delay of Vogtle Units 3 & 4 to be a negative for CBI shares today and potentially remain
We expect the further delay of Vogtle Units 3 & 4 to be a negative for CBI shares today and potentially remain an overhang over the near term, given that it may take more than a year to resolve this dispute. That said, the risk to CBI’s cash flow may be lower than the headline cost overrun number suggests for the following reasons: 1) CB&I’s contract with Westinghouse states that certain excess costs can be recovered by Westinghouse, so depending on the cause of delay, CB&I may avoid the cost overrun; 2) In the worst case scenario, the costs would likely be divided between the contractors, so assuming a 50/50 split, CB&I would be responsible for only $370M," continued the analyst.
"In terms of liquidity risk from this potential charge, the likelihood is low, in our view. Not only can CB&I generate ~$2.5B of cash from its existing backlog over the next 4 years (assumes no new bookings after 3Q14) but it also has $1.3B of its revolver currently available. We expect the next nuclear-related catalyst for CBI to occur on February 27th when the Georgia Public Service Commission releases its semi-annual construction monitoring report," he added.