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Universal Display Corp. Message Board

andystj 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 1, 2014 11:14 AM Member since: Feb 21, 2006
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  • andystj andystj Oct 1, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Good Morning,

    I do not have you on ITU, and I do read some of your posts. I agree with your premise that all investors and traders must keep an open mind and look for flaws in their investment thesis on an ongoing basis.

    My concern with your posting style is the sheer volume of posts. In my opinion it leads to a level of clutter which makes the board nigh-on unusable for people who are trying to exchange information.

    If possible, please consider limiting your number of posts.

    Kindest regards,
    Andy

  • andystj andystj Sep 25, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Did anyone notice that the lead author on the new study is Yifan Zhang? Zhang is the "Interesting Apple Hire" that we discussed here last week. It is nice to know that UDC's Cupertino Contact was a bit of a star under Dr. Forrest.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Any comments on today's action?

    by panelized Sep 22, 2014 10:29 AM
    andystj andystj Sep 22, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    Pullback purchased. Mostly just October contracts today, but I did pick up a couple of handfuls of January calls as well. I know it doesn't feel that fun today, but we are approaching the 50 Day SMA and we are approaching the interim peak from early July.

    If the broader market doesn't degrade to badly, we might get a very nice bounce off of that support.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone Else Hoping for a Pullback?

    by andystj Sep 18, 2014 4:47 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 19, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    A gentle squeezing by the wife is always appreciated, along with sitting on a core position.

  • Reply to

    LG TV reduction

    by rendog1 Sep 19, 2014 2:00 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 19, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    It's from a poorly reported Digitimes report.

    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone Else Hoping for a Pullback?

    by andystj Sep 18, 2014 4:47 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 19, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    I do not use a quantitative model, but my approach is not gut based either. Not to sound hippy-dippy, but I take a pretty holistic approach when entering a position.

    I don't use Monte-Carlo, but I do look at probablilty calculators along with theta, vega and IV trends.

    Beyond probability tools, however, I carefully watch liquidity and spreads when entering and exiting positions. Rational markets mean very little in an illiquid world. I also carefully watch the common stock price and "catalyst events" for entry points and exits.

    I admit freely, that I pay more time premium than I collect, but I do try to be measured in my use of leverage. Legging into and out of trades based upon the totality of the circumstances.

    In the most general sense, I try to pay premium when we are approaching support and collect premium as we approach resistance. I find that as "catalyst events" approach and the IV rises we also tend to move towards a resistance level, so this works out most of the time. Because of my long bias, I'm almost always positioned well on the chance that we blow through a resistance level, and I exit positions in stages as we move up. My hyperfocus on September has left me with a little less upside exposure than I want after this weekend, but I'll certainly be fine if we don't get more of a pullback than we have seen today.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone Else Hoping for a Pullback?

    by andystj Sep 18, 2014 4:47 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 19, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    I knew I'd get some flak for the post. It was fun reading your replies. I think dannye369 has the gist of my thoughts; I'm just being a little greedy. Here's a little gloss if anyone cares.

    I have a core long position held in common shares; I tend to trade options with an extreme long bias. This has been a volatile year for me in the trading arena. In early February, I opened some pretty large trading positions with the bulk of them pointed at June and some looking to September. I did pull some profits out in February and March, but I had my eye on $37-$38 (from last November) and I got trapped in the trade.

    Even though I was in the midst of a trade that did not end well, I DID recognize the unprecedented opportunity offered by May. I started buying September contracts heavily at the end of April and I added significantly below $25. Since that uptrend started, I have been a lot more nimble than with the February purchases. I have had some very good trades with interim tops and then adding on pullbacks.

    All of this trading (even including my trading of the "flexible retina" news) has been centered on September call contracts. Now I'm forced to look to January, and the premiums are making me swallow hard.

    Over the weekend, my core position will increase significantly when I exercise $25 call contracts. Even after that exercise, I will have extra capital to deploy, and I just am looking to do it well.

    I will be delighted if we go parabolic between now and April. There are always pullbacks in these parabolic moves. Just look carefully at a chart from May 2010-April 2011. That was a fun ride, and I want to do it again.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

  • I know this won't be a popular sentiment, but I would love to see a pullback to $32.50. It would make deploying additional capital easier. Can someone please start a rumor that the LG has a new pholed supplier. :)

    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Not that big a deal, but I made an interesting little find this evening. I was doing a quick look at the U Mich OCM Group page (Optoelectronic Components and Materials) which is Dr. Forrest's OLED and OPV group page. Looking at the alumni, I noticed that there were 3 2014 graduates. One of them, Yifan Zhang, was hired by Apple in March.

    Any search for "Yifan Zhang Apple" will get you to his LinkedIn profile. He is clearly just a kid, but his OLED bona fides are self-evident if you look at his publications.

    Apple certainly hires bright folks all the time and they aren't necessarily going to stay in the area of focus from their graduate studies, but Zhang is staying focused on displays. His position at Apple is "Display Technologist."

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upcoming OLED technology conference this week!

    by dannye369 Sep 14, 2014 2:46 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 15, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    Organic Vapor Phase Deposition with Aixtron, or more recently, Organic Vapor Jet Printing which is in the labs at U Mich and Princeton. You can call Kateeva competition in that narrow sphere I guess. It all depends on perspective. My point is that any movement towards increased commercial viability of OLED manufacturing processes should be welcomed. Perhaps any success they have towards getting someone to build a commercial "YieldJet Platform" tool will spur interest in scaling up OVPD tools.

    In any case, we come out way ahead.

    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upcoming OLED technology conference this week!

    by dannye369 Sep 14, 2014 2:46 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 15, 2014 10:22 PM Flag

    I recommend you do a search for Kateeva on this message board being sure to change the time frame to "all time." Discussions pop up periodically, but the volume of background material about them is not overwhelming. Kateeva is interesting, and they arise out of Bulovic's MIT group. The founder, Madigan, was at Princeton as an undergrad under Dr. Forrest and then went on to MIT.

    They are definitely complimentary to UDC and not competition. Printing really is the holy grail, and they are doing as much to move that ball down the field as DuPont or anyone else as best we can see.

    I think they may have lost a couple of their key former AMAT executives which is not necessarily a great sign for a tool-maker. I don't have any real insight on this though.

    $38 million will keep them working. Scaling up large equipment that is both novel and technically challenging is certainly a capital-intensive endeavor, and my guess is that someone will have to come along and buy them before all is said and done. At one point I thought PANL should consider buying them, but I ultimately decided that the capital needs were too great and too risky.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Panl needs to buy this company

    by franksaidso Nov 5, 2009 9:45 AM
    andystj andystj Sep 15, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    My thoughts on Kateeva have not changed since this 2009 post.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upcoming OLED technology conference this week!

    by dannye369 Sep 14, 2014 2:46 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 15, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    The OLEDs World Summit is in Berkely this week. I would not expect anything groundbreaking, but there will be a bit of networking done there. A few notes:

    If you look at the "Who's Attending" page, you will see that Apple has FOUR folks coming. This includes a Principal Technologist, a Process Engineer, a Technologist and the Senior Manager or Emerging Display Technologies. The last person is Paul Drzaic.

    Dr. Drzaic is a past president of SID. He has a history with eInk and a lot of interest in flexible displays. He joined Apple in 2011, and I have ZERO doubt that he knows EXACTLY what the Apple Watch display is as well as what will be in the Apple Watch 2, 3 and 4 displays.

    On the UDC side, Mike Hack will be there as will Professor Thompson.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BUY IT NOW..on SALE!

    by skimer99 Sep 14, 2014 11:38 AM
    andystj andystj Sep 14, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    $2,999 is also the price when purchased directly from Amazon. Looking at the Amazon page, it shows the third party sellers first because the Amazon direct availability is "usually ships in 1 to 2 months."

    LG is willing to act aggressively which is a very good indication that the ramp is progressing as expected. I'm hopeful that we will see $2,500 before Christmas and the magical $2,000 by the Superbowl.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Interesting article by Seamus Byrne on CNET.

    80% Yields; economies work because of WRGB; time is now. . .

    Chessboard,
    Andy

  • andystj andystj Sep 11, 2014 7:51 PM Flag

    Exponential or Geometric would have been more visually accessible adjectives, and they would have been better choices if I were able to edit. Using the inverse relationship does require a cocked head and careful axis definition. I did not mean to confuse. It was really just an off-the-cuff post.

    Rendog1 does seem to be fear-mongering, and so I won't engage beyond stating that my understanding of IP risk and alternatives is reasonably sophisticated, and I am very heavily invested with my eyes wide open. I encourage ALL potential investors to take the time to understand the risks and opportunties.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I have traded aggressively off of the Apple Watch story, but it really is tiresome focusing on a product that at best will account for a tiny percentage of revenue with its tiny screen. Without the final specs, it is hard to say, but each Galaxy Note IV represents probably 8x the opportunity for OLED than each Apple Watch. Each 8.4" tablet sold by Samsung and Dell represents something like 40-50 watches. Each 55" television represents. . .

    One key tenet of my oft-stated Chessboard thesis as it reltes to OLED is that larger screen sizes and larger substrates will be the key driver to the logarithmic growth pattern. The move to tablets by Samsung and Televisions by LG is so much more significant to the long term story.

    It has been fun playing for a while, but I hope all of the new eyeballs that popped over because of the Apple Watch will learn the relative insignificance of that event in the extremely well-positioned future that OLED is facing.

    I do expect that the Apple Watch will include a p-oled by LG for all of the well articulated reasons posted here and elsewhere. The endorsement by Apple will be appreciated, but it really is not the story.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big UP tomorrow.

    by serfbum1 Sep 9, 2014 3:30 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 9, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    We could see a big reversal heading into close. I fired several risk-capital bullets.

    Chessboard,

    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    confirming apple IS using OLED from LG

    by qtmmnutcase Sep 9, 2014 3:15 PM
    andystj andystj Sep 9, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    I find no confirmation, but also no confirmation of LCD. Here are the two quotes from the Apple official website:

    In addition to recognizing touch, Apple Watch senses force, adding a new dimension to the user interface. Force Touch uses tiny electrodes around the flexible Retina display to distinguish between a light tap and a deep press, and trigger instant access to a range of contextually specific controls — such as an action menu in Messages, or a mode that allows you to select different watch faces — whenever you want. It’s the most significant new sensing capability since Multi‑Touch.

    and

    A Retina display is the primary surface for every interaction with Apple Watch. And it’s clear why. The incredibly high pixel density makes numbers and text easy to read at a glance, even while you’re moving. Images and graphics render with remarkable sharpness and contrast, including finely detailed ones like the rotation of a hair-thin second hand on a watch face. And the display is extremely energy efficient, critical for a device you wear throughout the day.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LG VIDEO..........sent to me by one of the longs

    by dca1125 Sep 1, 2014 8:32 AM
    andystj andystj Sep 4, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    zikzak,

    This is where my relative ignorance will show up. I did not mean to imply that the deposition was higher yield with WRGB. My understanding was that WRGB was necessary to allow for the less-expensive IGZO backplane.

    My understanding is that Samsung still uses a pretty traditional Excimer Laser Annealing (ELA) process on their Low Temperature Poly-Silicon (LTPS) backplanes. It has been too long since I've thought about it, but I know that there were tool complanies working hard at scaling a modified form of ELA to work with larger glass. My understanding from your post is that this scaling is proving to be the biggest challenge. I also thought there were still possible issues on the deposition side with "sagging" and other issues with larger shadow masks. I don't have any sources on this however.

    Honestly, the description of scalability issues that I had heard regarding LTPS backplanes and RGB evaporation on those backplanes sounded like pretty traditional engineering, process and tooling issues. Not easy, but something that can be powered through with brute engineering force. I still believe that to be the case.

    My understanding of LG, by contrast, is that they use some existing amorphous silicon (A-Si) processes and modify it to create amorphous IGZO backplanes. My understanding of deposition of the WRGB structure is pretty foggy, however it would be more forgiving than a pixel-by-pixel direct emmission.

    I'd appreciate any more references to read up on the LG manufacturing process.

    Chessboard,
    Andy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OLED
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