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Fairway Group Holdings Corp. Message Board

andyv718 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 7, 2014 8:24 PM Member since: Mar 17, 2014
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  • Reply to

    Earnings Results

    by andyv718 Aug 7, 2014 4:20 PM
    andyv718 andyv718 Aug 7, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    yeah - the tribeca store was already announced so that was nothing new. the SI store was new, and it looks to be a good one. But on their last call, they were expecting 2 stores in 2015, 2 stores in 2016 and "the potential to accelerate growth in 2017" which would mean 3 or more. It seemed on this call that they backed away from 2 stores in 16 and 3 or more seems off the table now in 17 as they did a pretty good job of lowering expectations to 1-2 stores a year now. And yes, you are right, they didn't take more growth off the table - so it remains a possibility that they will add more...and for my benefit, I hope they do.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Results

    by andyv718 Aug 7, 2014 4:20 PM
    andyv718 andyv718 Aug 7, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    So, just to recap. Revenue and EBITDA were in line for the quarter which is better than the big misses of the past. Plus the new store announcement in staten island is a plus (although expected).

    Outside of that, most of the news was bad. The big key to this story was store expansion and most people were thinking 3-4 stores a year when they first went public. That was tempered down to 2-3 stores and now it looks like it's 1-2 stores. It looks like only one store is on the horizon for 2016.

    After that it looks like EBITDA for this year will be below last year with their updated guidance of $45m vs. previous guidance of around $50m. As a long who jumped in at $5.60 a few months ago, I'm disappointed - I thought they had hit their low back then, but it looks like they can continue to disappoint.

  • Reply to

    Earnings Results

    by andyv718 Aug 7, 2014 4:20 PM
    andyv718 andyv718 Aug 7, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    Looks like they are only opening one store in fiscal 16 and targeting "1 to 2 store openings the next few years" vs. the "potential to accelerate" in 2017 - this is no good.

    guidance for 2Q $197m revenues and ebitda of 8 - 8.5m (also no good)
    Sales of $805 - 850, EBITDA of $45m...this is down as well...so not good news all around from the call.

  • andyv718 by andyv718 Aug 7, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Expectations:

    Revenue: $196.91
    Gross Margin: 32.28%
    EBITDA: $11.13
    EPS: ($0.12)
    Same Store Sales: (1.4%)

    Actual:

    Revenue: $198.3 - slightly better
    Gross Margin: 31.0% - worse
    EBITDA: $11.1 - right on
    EPS: ($) - not sure, not comparable and doesn't really matter at this point
    Same Store Sales: (1.7%) - not good

    First store of 2017 announced (end of FY, so sometime in 2018). Looks to be in a good location.

    So overall not great. SS sales worse and margin comes in below expectations, but EBITDA is on track (a little above their guidance) and the new store opening should make some people happy...but really they need to announce 3 stores in FY17 minimum to get people interested again.

    They should give an update to FY15 guidance on the call - last time Revenues were up Mid single digits
    and EBITDA Flat to modestly positive

FWM
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