out of 1200 salereps, each needs to sell about 200 scripts this year. Each rep approaches 20 docs and get each doc to just write just 5 scripts !!!!! This doesn't seem like much, even without advertisement.
at the current rate without advertisement; it doesn't seem like we will get there this year. But can you imagine if they launch an advertisement campaign. This seems like an easy feat. 250k scripts out of 400 million diabetics world wide. Comon' mnkd, comon' SNY advertise and get this baby rocking to $100/sh.
stupid short making the dumbest post ever. Afrezza priced at $335/mon, that is $4000 per year. Just a million scripts would generate $4 billion in revenue. Do you know what price a company should trade at with a revenue of $4 billion with profit margin around 60%?
If all the shorts are this dumb like they are on ymb, then we longs will be very rich.
totally makes sense, how can anyone tell at this stage when 99% of docs and patients haven't even heard of Afrezza. Too many good reviews from users.
Mnkd clearly has been heavily illegally shorted. Regulation: can't naked short a falling stock. This stock fell from 11 to 5, and they were still shorting in the 6-7 range to manipulate.
currently, rapid short acting insulins are perscribed mostly by endocrinolgists which are short in number. I agree that this is the bottleneck to a slow start. Perhaps SNY can convince involvement of PPCPs.
The day they choose to expand manufacturing is the day they will decide to advertise and open the floodgates
social media and word of mouth will help but when you have a market as big as 400 million diabetics world wicde, TV commercial will tap into the 30 million diabetics in the US. Asia and Euro may require different mass media attention.
Slow launch means SNY is currently familiarizing and training docs on Afrezza. Once SNY thinks that enough docs are familiar with Afrezza they will release Advertisement campaign to trigger massive surge in patients asking for Afrezza. Advertising prematurely is a waste because even if the patients want Afrezza, no doc is ever going to persribe a drug that they are not familiar with. Thus, this launch has to be slow.
Afrezza is a drug for the patients, not so much for the docs. The docs don't care whether it is injectibles or inhalable Afrezza because they are not the ones sticking needles into their belly or arms 2-4 times per day. The patients are the ones who decide for convenience and pain-free treatment over needles. Theoretically, Afrezza's rapid onset of 12 minutes and quick offset should control blood sugar better and render less diabetic associated complications such as neuropathy, vascular disease, coronary, kidneys, and eyes. Hopefully longterm studies from SNY/Mnkd will show better HbA1c and lesser diabetic associated complications that will make AFrezza the standard of care for ALL diabetics.
I know all the facts about Afrezza compared to insulin injectibles, faster onset and offset, less hypoglyemia. Those long term benefits that you mentioned like vascular, nerve, etc have not yet been proven by studies. This type of study takes at least 10 years. HbA1c is "NON-inferior" to injectiibles.
I am long; I know the patients will ask for it once they know about Afrezza. No needles and convenience is why advertisement will drastically increase demand.
what is different about AFrezza from most other drugs is that the patients want it much much more than the docs. The docs don't care whether it is injectible insulins or Afrezza, equally effective with similar HbA1c profiles. It's not their belly or arms that they are sticking the needles with, it's the patients' arms or belly. So who want it more? The patients!!! A floodgate of demand will open up once they advertise.
"demand for sample exceeded expectation", said SNY, wich suggests that if the patients knew about Afrezza they would eagerly try. Thus, you CAN NOT determine the true demand for Afrezza until they advertise.
Currently there are 1200 salesreps teaching docs and familiarizing them with Afrezza. At this stage, 99.99% of the patients don't know about Afrezza. Even if they do know and want it, they can't get the docs to perscribe them because most docs don't know about Afrezza yet. NO doc is ever going to perscribe something new that they know nothing about. The question is how long will SNY need to teach most docs about AFrezza? before they open the floodgate of patients to the docs with adverrtisement?
Afrezza demand surge is like the tsunami, even if you knew it is comming in 6 months, you can't use the low tides currently to justify that it will NOT come. What you need to know is that there is presure building at the fault line, and if you keep on sailing near the fault line arrogantly you will get wiped out.
"the demand for Afrezza samples is higher than expected" according to SNY. This implies the patients are willing to try out Afrezza, if they have been told about it. This is a great strategy to find if big advertisement campaign is needed to attract patients.
Currently, 1200 SNY salesrep are approaching docs on a daily basis, teaching them and getting them exposed to AFrezza. Once the docs are familiar with Afrezza, then it will be time to launch a massive advertisement campaign to attract patients to ask their docs for Afrezza. The docs will then be ready to answer and write perscriptions for their patients.
YOU CAN NOT ADVERTISE NOW BECAUSE MOST DOCS AREN'T AWARE OF AFREZZA EXISTENCE YET. Even when the patients approach them about AFrezza, if the docs don't know about Afrezza, they will never prescribe a the drug. Based on the high Afrezza samples needed during the initial phase of the launch, advertisement campaign should gain tremendous amount of patient's interest.
The question is how long will it take 1200 SNY salesrep to prime all the docs about Afrezza, and by that time an advertising campaign to draw patients to their docs, will Mnkd/SNY have enough production capacity to meet demand?
Thus, the premature assessment by GS prescription # based on the first 3 weeks of launch is as incorrect as it can be. It's like saying a tsunami is unlikely to happen by the end of the year because currently we see low tides. Like a tsunami, with Afrezza, you are not going to see an exponential growth in demand until the advertisement is released. And you can't release the advertisements yet until all the docs are informed of Afrezza. Stay tuned folks, this is just the beginning.
this is probably the best explanation on YMB yet as far as the silence is concerned. I have also read some conspiracy theories.
shorts are probably up to 100 million shares now, that's almost 50% of float. Can you imagine any major postive news would do to the share price?
shut the heck up and go back to quoting movies, that's what you are good at. You don't know medicine/biotech or investing for that matter.
you are as stupid as most shorts, ask yourself why is the market cap $2.6 il or 4.0 bil after FDA approval when the company has zero revenue? Dummy! do some research and see how big the diabetic market is, 400 million patients world wide, and SNY is charging $380/mon/pt. Do the math dummy! $100 is conservative dummy