msft and google will step in before mnkd is sold to chinese company. The US keeps eyes open to save American technolgies and medicine before selling it to foreigners. Unless our gov does not want to help; mnkd may be sold to a foreign country.
Anyone knows the answer?
SnY has damaged Afrezza reputation with this so called controlled launch where they intentionally sand bagging the drug. Hence, the new partner will not offer big unless they have studies to back up HbA1c improvement, and they have TS deals. If not, it is as done as a roasted pork.
If this is a bluff where SNY is trying to buyout mnkd for dirt cheap, the pressure is definately on AL Mann. We already know SNY stopped pushing Afrezza since middle of 2015 where the script count consistently has been 500/wk since. The question is how can SNY know early on after a few months of the controlled launch, if Afrezza was not doing well, to stop selling it as early as June/July last year? Or was this entirely a full blown effort to kill mnkd and flop Afrezza on its track, and hoping for a hostile takeover.?
Was mnkd smart enough to conduct their own studies to show superior HbA1C during this time period? Are they going to publish any of these data to earn new deals and better labels? Or is this the end?
I will hold and add more, the risks is worth the rewards for 10-100 baggers. We are back at square one again, with less cash and tarnished reputation (unless they defend Afrezza with study results).
Desisto is well off but not super rich; he is hungry and he has a lot of experience in finance and CEO. His motives will be the same as share holders; he wants to get rich !!!!
Hakan never got such stock option offer! Desisto has a chance of a lifetime to make himself 100's of millions if he performs well. Let's say share price goes to $50 x 8 mil shares, that is a whopping $400 million !!! If I had this kind of opportunity, I would work my #$%$ off.
$600k annual, guaranteed bonus of $400k-- that is an automatic $1 mil. He also has the option to buy 8 million shares of discounted company options. This is no joke; he has to perform.
the end result, either Desisto will hold the shortest CEO term ever or Desisto will lead mnkd into many projects down the road.
It's a threat from Alfred Mann to SNY to make an offer; otherwise, mnkd is ready to make deals with other companies. The silent period is over!
I assume the refill time is about 3-6 months. If we pick 3 months for calculation, we had total of approximately 500 scripts in the month of September. Thus, if you took 331 which is the current refill divided by the total script 3 months ago (i.e. 500), then you would get refill rate of 66%. That is retention rate, which is damn good.
Oddly, the script count has been around 400-600 for the last 5 months, this suggests that the number of docs writing prescriptions has not changed. Thus, SNY must have kept full control of this. MY prediction, buyout out at either half of SNY shares of full SNY shares. I think Dr. Mann wants 1/1 exchange but SNY may be bargaining for 1/2 in January. $10 billion is cheap for a blockbuster and technosphere carrier for many blockbusters to follow. Remember folks, they sold a drug for pulmonary hypertension for $8 billion-- a very very small market, about 1/100,000 the size of diabetics.
#$%$, your average is 11.39?!!! Yikes!!! Mine is a little under 3. Buy 225k more shares then your average will be around 6.
you can ask for $100 but who is gonna buy it? Now if it was a bid, that would mean something. Amateur!
Al and co own 130 million shares facing FDA wipe out; he had to hedge by selling calls at various deadlines and prices but the total could not be more than 130 mil shares (calls conversion). Typically hedge funds would at least hedged 50% of share volume to be on the safe side. Thus, Mann could have sold 70 mil shares worth in calls ; most of them expired worthless already because they have been over a year and half. Who knows there was a lot of Jan 2016, maybe he will let it drop beyond January, then announce a BO.
He profits on the way down and on its way up. This is very corrupted but practiced all the time by hedge funds; hence the term "hedge". There is no way to prove that there is collusion between SNY and Al Mann to make this happen; otherwise, it is completely legal.
the FDA was full of crooks, and Mann couldn't entrust all his 130 mil shares in the hands of FDA panel. Thus, he had to hedge.
The very reason why the BO was not announced last year and why the share price was allowed to drop over 80% in value while management stayed in silence is to make the CALLS option worthless. Had the share price went up, AL Mann would have lost nearly all if share holding of 130 mil (depending on how many call options he sold against his share ownership). The question is how far out was his Call options that he sold? Once most of those options expired worthless, he will announce a possible buyout or other deals.
Given that mnkd has only enough cash to survive for 2 quarters top; I think it has to be soon.