Do you guys remember this post...?The share price in the teens is simply liquidity, the same old buyers but new impatient sellers. If you look at the history of the share price, early on, when the largest gas field in China was a new story, the price was nearly $2.00. Then, mortgages made the stock crash to nothing. Post crisis, top funds saw the opportunity to get a great asset at a distressed price, and the stock jumped to .80. While the stock did not rebound to pre-crisis days, large funds confirmed the thesis with the extensive diligence they performed. As certain funds had to exit due to liquidity requirements, the stock deteriorated as large blocks were sold off with no new buyers. Lack of early disclosure from the company got some scared they were going to run out of money and let many of us double down at fantastic prices. Then rebound as debt was secured. Now the share price moves with illiquid volatility.
Due to the illiquidity, the market cap doesn't represent the value of the company. From a private equity perspective, if we could buy the company for $50 or even $200 MM, we would do it in a heartbeat. But we would never get FEEC shareholder approval, as it is a multi-billion dollar asset.
Since the share price was at its peak, the story has only gotten better and derisked. Before it was just a theory of a large gas field in China. Now there are extensive engineering reports, extremely successful wells. While conventional gas is drilling in risky places and LNG trains, FEEC has direct access with a world-class resource. Unconventional, but enabled by the same multi-stage facing technology that is revolutionizing the O&G industry.
This is a 10-20 year project. The exploration period yielded fantastic results, and now we are just starting to dewater and move toward the next decade of development and commercial production. CBM gas starts when water production diminishes, then it climbs quickly to run-rate production. Water production hasn’t even started...
It's had me really wondering who this really is.... There is alot of truth and validity to alot of what they are saying... I just wonder what their thought are now... Alot has changed since this post, back in March- Wonder if innate ventures would offer thoughts again for us..
I agree though, that this has been my bggest frustration of my trading career, by far- You all know how long I have been here, just as I know how long many of you guys have been here. My hopes are for the best for us all. If they are able to structure this deal... With whoever it is, right, we can still have a huge payday. I gotta be honest tho- One of my biggest mistakes I have made in trading, over my 26 year career- what to get extremely frustrated with an idea, the management and as soon as it started to run, I hit eject.... only to watch it keep on going, and the sand passed right through my hands..... Gonna be Very careful about doing that here...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What in the _______________ are these less than intelligent people doing??? !!!!! How hard is it, to work out a deal? Do they need help?
And one more thing, that I feel is worth mentioning. Although I use it in conjuction with other indicators, but, one thing that I have been keeping a close eye on is what the accumulation/distribution has been doing over the last, almost 2 years..... I will say with confidence, that other times I have seen this type of situation occur-especially over an extended period of time like what it is doing here, ... it meant major moves to the upside- major ones.. Just something to think about--
I agree Ruff... I just can't make any sense of it... How is it that these guys can take soooo long to get something done. We haven't even had any updates on production, for the wells that were doing so well last year this time. The way this thing was trading this time last year, I thought for sure we'd be up testing that .83 high a while back.... But somehow, these people just can't seem to get anything done, and I don't know why... Don't they have any stock? Don't they think that it's a good thing to have the stock price go up, and stay in that direction? What is holding this thing down here? I did some math the other day, not sure if U saw it, but with all the debt, the $$ needed to bring it full production, and even with a stout discount, it should be able to get around $1.40 or so. It's not like this is a company with some new stuffed animal toys for Christmas- IT"S NATURAL GAS..!!! And quite a decent property at that... I just don't get it.... Maybe someone who is alot smarter than I am can explain it for us??
What do U guys think? Are they essentially a worthless setup?
You really believe that...? I was just sittin here wondering if this thing is just over..... forever- What a waste- of my time, energy, and money- I can honestly say that I don't think I've ever been, or even ever will be more disappointed in something or someone than this idea.... How do you( the company) screw up something so bad, that has such potential? For real...,? Just makes me wonder how they would respond, if they had that happen to them... Listen, NAOMIRESSIER, I hope your right, but if it's just gonna crash again... might as well keep it- I didn't come to this party for this long, to just stay for a short squeeze...
Merry Christmas to all of the FEEC crew here..( shareholders) May the coal in your stocking, someday soon produce some serious gas.!!!! :-)
Hey respine... Good morning- I spent some time trying to find out more about the World Bank sell U mentioned... And apparently, U guys know more than I do- I can't find anything more than their strikes that were up around 1.20, and 2 something... So, I can't be of any help on why they sold, or even if they sold- maybe some of the other guys here may know- and that's quite possible- this is a pretty sharp group here- I still believe in this project- hopefully Mike and his crew are doing everything they can to maintain our value on this World Class CBM property. As I was reviewing the data and releases, as well as the presentations last night- I was encouraged again, as to what is here....
Sentiment: Strong Buy
No, not really- they have plenty of that already..... What we need is for these guys to go do something... instead of nothing- this is a very valuable asset. And it's potentially the best CBM play in the world- If someone can convey that value to a major, then a buy-in, farm out, farm in or buyout would be potentially a good pay day- But for some reason unknown to me, these guys just don't seem to care, don't know what they're doing, or have no idea how to make things happen... Either way, the disappointment here is down right staggering to the mind... Absolutely unbelieveable-
Tell me all about it Ruff.. !!!!!! These pea brains, or less, are COMPLETELY CLUELESS..!!!! not partially, But rather COMPLETELY!!! Can we fire these people, Really, Is it possible to ask for their resignation?
Maybe I have my facts backwards.... But it does seem to make sense, that if oil continues to drop, then so will the cost of production for not only URG, but many others... So--- quite the contrary, if oil drops, then margins go up, along with the stock price... It's basically a pay raise for any company that has gasoline, or crude oil as a cost...
Ya know... I'm sittin here thinkin...., exactly how long does it really take to work out a deal? Unless there are multiple parties involved, competing for this property, which is very valuable by the way..., But if we take a look at the debt at around conservatively 120mil, the asset at around 1.5 bil, the shares outstanding at 400mil, the amount of cash needed to still fully develop this gig at 200mil, and a 50% discount because of the lack of diligence so far.... if my math is decently accurate, then that places this thing at say $1.40..... I would love to hear you guys thoughts... Please let me know what I am leaving out-
DrugDealer...... You know man- I'm beggining to think you were right... I used to be a strong believer in this idea- But not so much anymore... Flat out can't believe that this thing is still down here- If my math is right, and I've checked it several times.. then this is a milti-billion dollar asset.... with somehow an amazing ability to remain worthless... I guess its time to just chalk this up as the biggest loser of my lifetime...
Twas the night before New Years, and all through the stock
Not a news realease stirring, not even a pop...
The stockings were hung by the chimney with care,
In certainty that some Coal soon would be there;
The shareholders were nestled all snug in their beds;
While visions of gas danced in their heads;
And mamma in her 'kerchief, and I in my cap,
Had just settled our brains for a long Stock's Gap,
When out in China there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the computer I flew like a flash,
Tore open the platform and opened the stash.
The dudes of the admin showed up with a glow,
And gave promises of returns, that we may never know,
When what to my wondering eyes did appear,
But a miniature stock price and eight tiny biddears,
With a little old driver so lively and quiet,
I knew in a moment he must be St. Mike.
More slowly than turtles, his wells they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name:
"Now, Seam15, now, 1-H Pilot! now Seam 5, Seam 9!
On, Druggie! on, on Stupid (me)! MsMitty & Ruffer, their all mine!
To the top of the ground! to the top of the well!
Now gush away! gush away! gush away all!"
That gas- before the world -they knew,
When they meet with a buyer,
Away from the shareholders, like an eagle it flew
With the sleigh full of coal, and St. Mike aboard,
The gas for some unknown reason continues to hoard,
And then in a twinkling, I heard on the roof
The prancing and pawing of each little goof.
As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
Down with the price, St. Mike came with a bound.
He was dressed in a fine suit, from his head to his foot,
And his pockets were all glowing, from the buying of puts;
A bundle of coal he had flung on his back,
And he looked like a pedler just opening his sack.
His eyes-how they twinkled! his dimples, how ferry!
His stockholders were all hosed, and not all that merry!
His stock was drawn down, as low as could go,
And the beard on his chin was as white as the snow
Thanks Redspine..... But it's actually ANGLER.. as in bottom feeder.... My favorite depiction is in the movie Nemo.... And stock and pop do ryhme, but maybe not as much as U'd liked... And yes, it was quite a bit of work... Hope U enjoyed..
As much as I'd like to remain hopeful, ole Mike has given me plenty of reasons to throw in the towel here... Unbelieveable.... flat out unbelieveable.....