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Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) Message Board

anglertrader 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 11, 2015 10:06 PM Member since: Jan 28, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Is there anyone on this Board....?

    by anglertrader Mar 18, 2015 12:43 PM
    anglertrader anglertrader Apr 4, 2015 9:31 PM Flag

    Thanks Jhanke.... Hopefully something decent will happen for us sometime soon...

  • Reply to

    Pro Active

    by puestapete Apr 10, 2015 8:20 AM
    anglertrader anglertrader Apr 11, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    Ok- So I like to run the numbers, personally, just to try and get things relatively close. There are several things for consideration. First we all know that with the independent calculations, we have an asset valued at about 2.1 Billion. According to yahoo finance, which we all know isn't exactly accurate, we owe around 93 million. I'd say its fair to round that up to about 110 million ( 60 million for the drilling program last year, plus a few extra million from recent notes. Now, forgetting the "cash on hand" and any revenue, we have an outstanding amount of shares at around 400 million conservatively. Keeping things simple. Let's say that we take the value proposed at 2 Billion- the debt of 120 million. That equals 1.8 Billion, right. now lets say that they need to do another drilling program to get things up and running, by another 300 million, to properly get this gig going. That means we're now down to around 1.5 Billion...conservatively... We have around 400 miilion outstanding right- that would mean the deal should be worth around $3.75 per share. Well we all know how far we are from that. So, let's discount it another 50% to around $ 1.80 or so. Can anyone explain to me why we are all the way down here at .035 or so? What am I leaving out? Keep in mind that these numbers are VERY conservative. We all know that they are getting much higher prices than this. And that they do have some revenue. And that there are contracts in place that provide for higher amounts of revenue and production, as time goes on. So- this calculation including shares, prices under contract, debt, and additional amounts needed to further develop, shouldn't be too far off. Plus that 50% discount is in my mind fairly ridiculous.... Maybe some of a discount, but NOT that deep. This deal should at a minimum, produce for all shareholders, in my humble opinion, around $ 1.50.... I welcome additional comments, numbers and calculations...


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