Looking that the all time chart, when div was about $1, the stock would dip to below $15 post div, looks like now with the lower div, $15 could be not far off
Vvus is a generic cocktail too and does not have a CV trial data, its market cap is about $1 billion far in excess of Orex. Also Vvus was denied European approval as was Arna, Orex has the best chance to be the only obesity drug with that chance of European approval. That makes Orex the most promising and undervalued stock of the lot with the max chance of appreciation. It is not by accident that its target price is $11. Las time it ran up over $10 before FDA decision. Even with dilution $8 to $9 is almost certainly before PDUFA.
•Initiating coverage on the sector giants, Goldman sees both Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC) as Sells.
•"We expect book value to fall as rates rise and MBS spreads to widen post Fed tapering," says analyst Eric Beardsley, giving NLY a $9.50 price target. With management taking actions to protect said book value such as moving into short-duration assets and boosting hedges, expect more earnings headwinds and dividend cuts of about 40%. An expected dividend of $0.80 per share is an 8% yield based on the current stock price. Total return of 2% over the next year compares to 10% Beardsley expects for the overall mREIT sector (REM).
•It's the same story for AGNC which gets an $18.50 price target. Beardsley expects book value to fall 15% to $21.39 by Q4 next year and the dividend to drop to $2 - a 10% yield based on the current stock price. He sees total return of 4% over the next year, again compared to 10% for the overall sector.
I truly feel sad for you, investing in mREIT's can be very tempting and complex to understand. For instance if some simpleton looked at AGNC since inception for about 5 years, they would have seen that till about 6 months ago it did great, with nearly 20% div and stock appreciation. It is very understandable how some one can be lured into investing into it and other mREIT's when they see excellent performance year after year. I for one made that mistake at the wrong time when the ride was nearly over - my caution was thrown away when I kept watching year after year of splendid return, was lucky to get out with my shirt.
Could not agree with you more, besides 2.75% interest is rock bottom. Wish I could get hat kind of deal somewhere
With a virtual lock on FDA approval, marker cap well below VVUS, ARNA and the only obesity drug with a decent chance at European approval, now is the time to load up before NDA fining and run up to FDA decision. Good luck longs
I am new to this stock and am strongly considering a position in OREX, but wished to know if secondary is a possibility or expected as mentioned in many of the post below ? Would appreciate honest responses. Thank you
old_brkr1, What about GNSZ's current cash position, looks like they have only $1.5 million in the bank. Why is the stock declining ? Will they do do secondary and dilute ? Thanks