I was not clear. I should take my time when posting. Hard to believe anyone is buying stocks aggressively here. You're absolutely begging to lose money if you do. You have all time highs, crazy political tension in the middle east (plus the NK situation is Asia) and the VIX near the lows. I'm actually not in TVIX but am in UVXY at 6.09 at the moment but much prefer this board.
The first part of the post was sarcastic. The second part demonstrates why I would not go long the market/equities here, i.e., because of potential war in the middle east, economic factors, overbought market in month of May, VIX near 3 year lows, etc. Have a good one.
Wow, world markets are soaring. There's no stopping this trend. It can only continue onward and upward. In fact, according to some, stocks, even though at all time highs in the SPX, are grossly undervalued and cheaper than they've been in a very long time. Let us all back up the truck and enjoy some very easy money.
Unreal, isn't it? You have to be reckless to go long here, especially into a May weekend with so much tension in Syria.
The VIX is near 3 year weekly range lows just as the markets are at all time highs. Risk reward favours a VIX spike. It's due for a jolt to the 40s.
Tvixer, it always looks so obvious in hindsight. It's so very hard to play the contrarian at exact tops and bottoms as it takes guts.
That "has" should be "as" in the prior message. "Echoes" should be "echoed." Should have proofread.
Isn't it amazing though, back to talking points now, how for months the opinion has been that the market must rise so long as Ben prints? What a dangerous thesis to hold. A lot of folks who have bought into that thesis are going to get crushed. By the time the pundits agree that we're in a bear market, anyone waiting for confirmation will have totally missed the move.
This time could be THE time that the bear comes out of hibernation......The technicals and fundamentals are bearish... We have a state of overbought and over-hyped markets, which are at or near all time highs, with the VIX very low.
We got news of the best jobless numbers in 5 1/2 years this morning just as the S&P was showing a tremendous triple top formation on the monthly decade long chart, and, oh by the way, this is the month of May -- the classic month for sell-offs. I don't know if this will prove to be the start of a new bear market or a correction to a long running bull market, but the bears are certainly due. The sentiment makes sense for this to be the start of a new long term bear market has the pundits have basically echoes the line that this market can only go up because of the Fed. The fear was completely replaced by unjustifiable complacency and greed, even in the face of obvious economic turmoil on both a global and national scale. The buy the dip pattern was established and applauded. Could this dip be the one that traps so very many innocent retail bulls? Is this dip the Big one -- the one that is actually the plunge off the top, the first hard leg down in a sharp bear market plunge?
Opening line from a CNBC article below:
"Germany joins the U.S. at an historic high. France at a two-year high. Portugal at 52-week high. Japan at five-year high."
And where is the VIX within its past 3-year range? Is it near the bottom of that range just as world markets are at tremendous highs?
Risk versus reward, anyone?
Long UVXY from 6.09 and holding.
You constitutional lawyers out there, any possibility of such? That would certainly shatter world markets.
If WWIII starts this week (Israel/US/UK versus Syria/IRAN/RUSSIA) then the VIX (and future contracts) will blow up. You won't care about the charts. If there is no war, then UVXY could rise on a debt downgrade or any excuse that the pundits pick once the BIG money decides it's time to tank the market. Reward far outweighs risk in UVXY now as you have the market at all time HIGHS with the VIX near recent (past 3 years) lows and escalating financial and terrorist related crises on a global scale. You can bet there will be volatility -- at least I did by buying UVXY.
Thanks, bud. I don't make my trading decisions based on pawn shop customer trends though. I prefer the weekly charts. Let us know how that works out for ya :)
Forgive me. I just hadda! LOL!
Now is the time to scale into this issue. The volume over the past 2 weeks on the weekly candle chart is impressive. Look at the $GDM weekly charts too, not only NUGT. Could be setting up an island (on dailies) or doji bottom, depending how this plays out. There has been only one other gap down on the weekly candles on the $GDM over the past 3 years and that was filled rather quickly (See December 2011). If you're a risk versus reward trader then I think reward far outweighs risk here now, as far as the technicals are concerned.
Hope it goes up for you. I am taking a shot with ZN -- looks poised to move. Needs to clear 1.35 to breakout. Such low volume though.
OPXA is a tough read right now. Could see it at $5 or $1.50 -- depends on whether any big news hits. No news of substance and I think it trades down to $1.50 but if you g get option exercise news from Merck, could go to $10-20. Japan news, maybe $5. No real opinion on it short-term. From an investment standpoint, there could still be a value disconnect, given MERCK paid $5million for the option.
Could see this spiking on big news or getting hit on dilution. Trading is a very difficult thing to do. Like ZN at the moment (not a lot though) for a possible breakout. Whoever said you could make easy money trading is lying or naive. Too bad I missed FNMA.
Have a good day, traders.
I added today -- so might have been me. Took longer to fill than I expected even though I bought at the ask. Feels like accumulation. Still might go sideways for weeks. This one needs patience.
That's not a very good spread. Technically, this is floating around between 2 and 2.30 so until this closes ON VOLUME above 2.30, we're stuck in this little channel. We need real news. Articles by Seeking Alpha and Investor's Hub might garner some very temporary attention from daytraders but what will move the price above resistance and KEEP IT there will be new fundamental developments. We need option/license news or good clinical trial news. Till then, this is like watching paint dry, unless you're scalping for pennies. Anyone else, grab a bag of chips and take it easy.
Have a good day, everyone.
I think it is news as the conference announcement is under "Headlines" and is partially sponsored by Opexa. I won't try to spin this into some pumperific development. It is irrelevenat, as far as the market is concerned, given the trading at the open. Just my take as a shareholder of Opexa. You seem very upset by my opinion though. I intend you no offense. I am a straight talker who wants this to go up in value too and am trying to not let desire blind my outlook. Real news could move it, IF we get such. Have a good day.
Strike the word "average." My cost at this time, after trading in, out and back in is 2.30 or so. Really like the potential but was hoping for a much bigger bounce by now. This thing was as high as 11-12 or so a couple or so years ago and you'd think on that Merck news it could have held more of the jump up in value. This is a bear raid away from a buck and a quarter, given the low float, were it to happen. Seems very easily manipulated. Really hope we get news of substance soon (exercise of option, license for Japan or other indications, clinical trial progress, etc) to make a sustainable bump. Conferences mean nothing to me. Appears to be a value disconnect but why isn't the market seeing that? Makes me nervous that I'm misisng something, like a secondary.
Any who, have a good day, fellow shareholders. Maybe next week. Maybe...
I wanted some meat but that was fluff, at least as far as I'm concerned. Will likely sell the next substantial bump. Maybe Merck will exercise that option and maybe it will not. I will lock in a good profit when I can though, particularly in the dilutive world of biotech. Underwater here with a cost average at about 2.30 a share.