Metabolix, Inc. Message Board

BTW, I believe the last time we saw large blocks like that it lead to a very nice run. On the sell side there is one 6k block but the rest appear to be pretty small. Hopefully the old supply versus demand thing will show up here... Perhaps ilo will go short and give the buyers the supply they are looking for.

I’ve grown to hate TINY’s stock performance yet continue to love the idea and the technology behind the idea. The potential is definitely there and not all nano technology will take ten to twenty years to be integrated and mass produced. Harris & Harris has a nice little investment in HzOInside and their technology has the potential to become common place within the next five to ten years. IMHO, everyone here should visit the HzO Inside, Applications page, and thoroughly read each of the consumer spaces that they are currently targeting; IMHO, those are just the tip of the iceberg. If their technology takes off the way that I believe it will then the company will be public within three years and Harris & Harris with be sitting on some very valuable shares (unless they make a stupid mistake and sell those shares long before HzO gets a chance to soar)… This is just one of several reasons my son now has a few hundred shares of TINY in his college fund; IMHO, very low risk with very high possible rewards coming within the next ten years. This stock may be a POS right now, and management does nothing to make us think otherwise, but it has potential (just like the electromechanical airbag did when it was invented by Allen Breed in 1968).

Sentiment: Hold

superwave, I agree with you, this stock behaves like a POS yet I too continue to hold a small position. I’ve also added a small position to my son’s college fund which he won’t need to touch for another 10 years. The biggest problem with new technology is that the bigger companies already have processes and supply channels in place for existing technology and they don’t want to switch to new tech unless the switch comes for free (no costly changes to the existing manufacturing line) or the new tech costs significantly less than the old tech… Of course, it costs money to make new tech so it rarely costs less than the old tech unless there is mass adoption of the new tech and mass production brings the prices down to the point where all manufacturers want it… This is probably the problem with HzO technology. If Apple wants to make a waterproof phone then they will need to retool their manufacturing process, apply HzO’s nano coating, then test the new phone for a year to make sure the nano tech doesn’t cause overheating, decrease the phone’s battery life, or affect the phones responsiveness (both telcom and wifi). They have no reason to make such a big investment unless it will provide them with a real competitive advantage. FYI, I think that they may already be testing the tech with their phone which would explain why their next release has been delayed… Regardless, the cost to use new tech is significant so a lot of great innovations have gone by the wayside and won’t be used until it becomes in vogue to do so… Another example is new tech, the auto airbag was invented about 20 years before it was finally used; think about that for a second.

Kevin, they have started marketing their product and there is some talk about medical professionals wanting all at-risk people (a very high percentage of the human race) to get tested. This kit has the potential to gain national attention and that would bring in a lot of buyers. Regarding the $40 per unit; most retailers pay less than half for anything they sell (with another slice going to the supply chain) so you are correct; that is a worthless number to use when doing calculations. Regardless, 5 units per store per month is a rather small number compared to the number of customers who are at risk. Personally, I can imagine the day when young males will stock up on these in much the way many of them already stock up on condoms.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I'd like to know how much of HzO Inside they actually own and what the value is on their books. That company could end up being worth more than all the rest of Zagg combined.

Ready, it’s easy to tell when you’re looking to buy because your rhetoric always makes you sound like a short. Why do you feel a need to start spouting targets that at 15% lower than the current price; answer, because you’d like to buy back the shares that you sold at the last top and that would be a very very good price to buy them back at. You’ve done very well trading in and out of this one but as a long term holder it is always hard when you start speaking the short’s rhetoric. If the stock is destined to get there then it will get there on its own; you don’t really need to help it along. Keep positive, the shares that you currently have are probably paid for twice over and you don’t really need more :)

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Re-read the Dec 18th announcement... They not only need PHA resin but since worldwide construction is starting to pick up again they may eventually need a lot of it:

"I6001, a biobased polymeric modifier for PVC (polyvinyl chloride) formulations based on Metabolix PHA resin"

Some small differences: Eno's company has over 160x more cash, nearly $30 Million less debt, much more interesting products, hundreds of more patents, several research grants and real potential for growth.

Sentiment: Hold

Dec 5, 2012 – “Metabolix, Inc. (MBLX)… today announced that it has entered into an agreement with Kenmare Srl., a packaging solutions supplier based in Milan, Italy and Lugano, Switzerland. Under the agreement, Kenmare will promote to its customers Metabolix’s Mvera B5008, a certified-compostable film grade, starting in 2013.” The press even included a quote a Kenmare director stating how much they are looking forward to working with “Metabolix next year as they ramp up their production in Europe”.

Dec 6, 2012 – “Metabolix, Inc. (MBLX)… today announced that it has received a subaward under the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) to work with the UCLA Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science to redesign carbon fixation pathways to increase the efficiency of capturing energy from sunlight.” Very nice!

Dec 18, 2012 – “Metabolix, Inc. (MBLX)… today announced that I6001, a biobased polymeric modifier for PVC (polyvinyl chloride) formulations based on Metabolix PHA resin, is now available for shipment to customers. Metabolix designed I6001 as a performance additive to improve the mechanical and environmental performance characteristics of PVC. With a diverse use pattern ranging from construction materials to medical applications, PVC has an estimated market demand of approximately 35 million metric tons per year.” Here in the states a certain amount of new construction is underway again so a product that enhances the performance characteristics of PVC certain seems to have potential.

Jan 30, 2012 – Forbes publishes an article from a recent interview with CEO Rick Eno, basically making him the poster child for their New Leader’s Playbook and briefly mentioning the “Spanish supplier replaced ADM’s 50,000 ton joint venture plant with a 10,000 ton toll manufacturing deal”.

The combination of everything released by Metabolix, along with the increase in both insider buying and share price should give investors some hope for good news

Sentiment: Hold

o “Over the last year or so, we’ve been in discussions with a number of chemical industry leaders about a technology for making bio-based GBL and BDL. Over the third quarter, this has intensified and we are engaged in detailed conversations with a number of parties each with multi-billion dollars in corporate revenue on the potential for an exclusive commercialization relationship for our C4 chemicals technology. Frameworks being discussed include cash contributions to Metabolix and a plan to jointly bring the technology to market. Discussions are proceeding and we will keep you informed of any major developments.”
o “Our C3 chemicals program is also receiving significant interest. We are also now in a range of discussions with potential feed stocks, manufacturing, and off-take partners who are renewable C3 technology”
o “This quarter we continue to make progress in our work in the $6 million department of energy grant for the development of our biomass program. This funding will allow us to work on increasing the PHB levels expressed in switch grafts and conduct pilot testing of the production of chemical intermediates via a fast process.”

NOTE: Since then Eno has said nothing to diminish expectations of his investors. In fact, the follow are all from press releases or interviews since:

Dec 3 2012 – “Metabolix, Inc. (MBLX)… today announced that MveraTM B5008, a new certified-compostable film grade resin, is now available for shipment to customers. Compounded in Europe for local markets and widely available for global customers, Mvera B5008 is designed for applications including compost bags, can liners used for organic waste, as well as shopping and retail bags that can be reused as compostable organic waste bags…” Personally I like the statement that it is widely available for global customers; implying that even domestic customers might have a chance of procuring a few tons.

continued -

Sentiment: Hold

o “We currently anticipate startup cost including facility modification in the range of $10 - $13 million. Included in this estimate is approximately $3 million for the demonstration phase which is nearly all-applicable for the commercial phase.”
o “For those of you doing the calculation this is approximately $0.45 - $0.60 per pound of capacity based on 10, 000 tons per year or £22 million per year of capacity… much of this capital efficiency is due to the fact the Antibioticos has existing capacity. But because of that we can execute our strategy for very limited capital investment and aim to generate substantially higher returns on capital for our shareholders.”
o “We have a further performance lever as we have the choice to sell either straight, uncompounded PHA, or compounded product where our PHA is blended with other products as in the case with our new MveraB5008 product. This option will allow us to sell more than 10,000 tons per year of products from Antibioticos. Potentially delivering more than the $50- $60 million in revenues I described to you in earlier calls.”
o “We see the Antibioticos operations ultimately being profitable for metabolic, a key contributed to driving the company to positive cash flow and a foundation for growing a significant biopolymers business. Well it should be clear to you that we are enthused about the potential for the biopolymers launch in making good and rapid progress”
o “We’ve built momentum this quarter with positive developments in technology, manufacturing and commercial. We plan to enter the market quickly, at a reasonable scale in economics”

continued -

Sentiment: Hold

borednsf, the tendency in California is to offer anyone with more than 2 items in their cart a paper bag for ten cents. If Metabolix can produce biodegradable plastic bags for less than five cents each then they could probably sell those in bulk to California stores. Many of us prefer plastic to paper because they store better (and work well for doggie poop bags :)

Stores in many of California’s largest communities have already removed plastic bags from their checkouts and soon it could become a nationwide thing. Metabolix definitely has an opportunity here and it would be good if they were part of it. I’d like to see them do it on their own but if Antibioticos doesn’t work out then it might be best to sell the company to someone with the means to take their technology to the next level. I’d be disappointed to see Metabolix sold for anything less than $10 but I suspect that they’d be hard press to get $6 right now. It is going to be very interesting to see what Eno has to say. Something caused a run here and something caused some of our shorts to cover. I tend to believe Eno has some news for us but hasn’t been able to share it due to legal reasons; hence the push to release information two weeks later than normal. I guess we’ll know by the end of next week.

Sentiment: Buy

Take a look at the last six months of ADUS and compare it to this one... There's a lot of hidden value here and the market will eventually realize that...

Sentiment: Strong Buy

NSDQ has a 20k buyer out there at $2.35 (looking for weak hands "ready" to give up shares :)

Yes, I saw your 1k shares trade at $2.50 right before the pullback; good timing! Of course, InAtOneSixty had much better timing #$%$/he told everyone about both his entry point and his exit as it happened. By the way, those who brag about their activity days/weeks after the fact often come off as less believable.

Sentiment: Hold

Anyone else find the shorting information on this board to be a bit out of hand? On big volume days we are often told that a large percentage of the volume is shorts, and if you check the websites that Ready uses then you’d be certain that short numbers are going up… Actual numbers come out ever two to three weeks (thanks braintrust for today's numbers) and there’s been very little change (with both of the last two reports showing fewer shorts). The shorts are blamed for nearly every little move down and are often referred to as the smart money. I tend to believe that neither side has enough information right now to make a really good call.

Of course, I’ve bought into some of the arguments... For several months last year the volume here was anemic and the end of the day action appeared as if it were being manipulated by shorts (creating a trend by methodically dropping the price a little each day)... On the contrary, this year the volume has been much better and the price was climbing; possibly more manipulation but not exactly the same sort of manipulation because it is much harder to manipulate a price in higher volume markets.

This year’s up trend in both price and volume makes one wonder what others know that we don’t. Hopefully this turns out to be the winner that we expect it to be but until a few more pieces come into play this remains a very speculative investment. Good luck to everyone here and try not to lose your cookies on the rollercoaster.

Sentiment: Hold