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Metabolix, Inc. Message Board

antasia_x 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 9, 2014 5:22 PM Member since: Sep 25, 1998
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  • Reply to

    $1 triggers my close

    by dagiw Sep 9, 2014 10:22 AM
    antasia_x antasia_x Sep 9, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    dagiw, if I were one who traded short then I would have probably mirrored your last two trades without needing to collaborate to do so. I don't momentum trade but I saw the steam starting to run out of the train once the price settled in the low 30's... There's always been a floor around $1 so once it dropped below $1.16 you could be pretty confident it was headed there. The insiders are of course building plans for the future but that didn't limit you from taking advantage of the here and now... Respect for the knowledge and skill to play the game - Good luck

  • Reply to

    The crazy's are out and about

    by reddywilling Sep 8, 2014 1:20 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Sep 8, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    Another question since you’re one of the few shorts I've met who is willing to talk about shorting (rather than just brag about it). You mentioned that the momentum trade is on and that you didn't want to get trapped by that, yet you haven’t mentioned the charts. There appears to be a clear resistance level near $1.32 (at least for the last 12 months); is that the sort of thing that you take into account when initiating new shorts or do you look shorter term than that? I don’t normally short stocks but today I considered selling some of my shares at $1.32 expecting that I could probably buy them back for less when I’m ready.

  • Reply to

    The crazy's are out and about

    by reddywilling Sep 8, 2014 1:20 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Sep 8, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    I'm really curious, would you short GoPro going into the lockup expiration event or is the market right pushing them skyhigh based upon expectations that they'll become a media company... Or will you just have to wait and see how high they get before making that call. Personally, I think they'll have a very good holiday season yet can't believe it will be high enough to justify current numbers

  • Reply to

    DreamSky should buy GameLoft...

    by rumorwhisperorbuzz Sep 8, 2014 12:17 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Sep 8, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    You're right, D'a sky would be the limit '-)

    May all your Dreams come true...

  • Reply to

    The crazy's are out and about

    by reddywilling Sep 8, 2014 1:20 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Sep 8, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    dagiw, you were once up nearly $20k and with your last report it sounded like you are down around $5k... IMHO, you played this one brilliantly all the way up until the point where the insiders decided to plow money into the company and then you started making mistakes.

    IMHO, it is almost always a very bad idea to go against the insiders once they decide to place really big bets. You've been around long enough that you should have known better but you couldn't see the forest through the trees (or the potential past the numbers)... Lessons learned, right?

    There's only a few good reasons for insiders to pull money out of their homes and retirement accounts to invest in their own company and that is "they know more than we do about the future prospects of their company and they're certain they can make a lot of money".

    There are some pretty easy shorts in this world... Shorting when insiders are selling, shorting into most IPO lockup expiration events (be on the watch for GoPro's expiration) and shorting when a company is clearly going bankrupt.

    There are also some pretty clear buying opportunities in this world and one of them is triggered when insiders start to buy. In the case of Metabolix they weren't only buying; they were backing up the truck.

  • Reply to

    Hold

    by ilovepelosi Aug 3, 2014 9:12 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Sep 5, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    Why of course Pelosi bought at 0.40... Don't you recall the huge trade of 1,000 shares that went across the ticker right at that moment? LOL, I certainly do because half those were mine!!! I also purchased shares at $0.43 but I don't want to brag about those because I purchased a lot more shares and clearly overpaid for them by three cents.

  • Reply to

    Worth $90m?

    by dagiw Aug 26, 2014 4:45 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Sep 2, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Someone who gets it!!! The insiders spoke louder than words by pouring personal money into what appeared to be a dead company. Insiders don't do that unless they really believe in what they are investing in... $$$$$... IMHO, there are a lot of companies on the market that are worth shorting but this isn't one of them. It amazes me when folks try to throw spears at guppies instead of going after the really big fish. Metabolix is currently a guppy that will either get eaten by a really big fish and become part of a much bigger entity or eventually grow into one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good call.

    by reddywilling Aug 6, 2014 4:58 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Aug 6, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    Ten years from now this will probably a billion dollar plus company and we'll all laugh about the days when you could buy it for less than half a dollar. I look forward to those days but realize the it will be a long and bumpy road. It will be interesting to see if dagiw is right and we'll a big discount when dilution hits. Personally I'm hoping that one of the customers who is evaluating their product signs a contract before things get that far. The construction industry is just one of many large potential markets that could profit from switching to Metabolix's products.

  • Reply to

    List of Participants In the Latest Raise

    by steri318 Aug 6, 2014 3:24 PM
    antasia_x antasia_x Aug 6, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    I’m very encouraged by the amount of money put in by the Schuler family… Prior to the financing they owned roughly 15% of the company. With this financing they are nearly doubling their cash investment yet picking while picking up even greater ownership of the company.

    They talked about several key tests going on right now and those tests aren’t just to see if the products work. They are tests to see if the customers can manufacture products using M’s tech… I suspect that Schuler knows exactly what he’s investing in and is certain it’s just a matter of time before M lands a few large customers or someone big tries to buy M… Personally, I’d like to know what percentage of the company he is about to own. I highly suspect that going forward that there are only two votes that count; those are Schuler and Strobeck.

    Speaking of votes that count… Very few talk about Strobeck’s position here yet he has decided to purchase another $2,000,000.00 of additional stock. Every year for the last several years he has been one of the largest insider investors but now he is really going for it! You don’t invest that type of money unless you expect it to make you a lot of money! I’m certain those are the parameters that both Strobeck and Schuler are playing with which is why the punch bowl for shorts now appears empty rather than half full like it did before.

    I also like the fact that Giles is purchasing over a million, Scully four million, small a hundred thou, peoples two hundred thou and walsem a hundred fifty thou… It makes me want to invest a hundred thou too so if dag is right and this gets to 25c then I’ll be right there with them.

    I wish this company were already successful, but they do have hundreds of patents and they do have a few certifications and they have seen plenty of research funding so I suspect that it’s only a matter of time.

  • antasia_x antasia_x Jul 22, 2014 3:06 AM Flag

    When are earnings?

  • Is not as bad as some here claim:

    “You’ll recall that our financing plan is to raise to $50 million to $60 million over the next 12 to 15 months. To that end, we’re looking at a variety of different structures ranging from smaller staged financing to larger, more comprehensive solutions. While we’re not in the position today to say how this will all play out, what we do know is that we intend to complete at least the first phase of our financing by the end of June… Based on our current plans and projections, which remain subject to numerous uncertainties, we intend to raise $50 million to $60 million over the next 12 to 15 months… Failure to receive additional funding by the end of June 2014 will force us to delay, scale back or otherwise modify our business, operating plans, and/or pursue strategic alternatives… here’s a lot of activity around the financing, and we are talking to a bunch of different people about a variety of different structures. The focus has really been about the long term business plan and making sure that we’re securing the capital that we need to execute it. And we’re focused specifically on counter parties who share that interest… I would say that our plan to complete at least the first phase of financing by the end of June and we would expect to have a full set of information for investors about what that financing looks like when we announce it. And to complete it by the end of June, it means we’d have to announce it by the end of June.”

    Okay so failure will lead to delay, scale back, business mods or strategic alternatives… The last one there could interest short term traders because a sale of the company would probably return at least 2x from today’s price and possibly much more. In spite of what the shorts want you to think, The IP here has significant value; shopping the company for a buyer that knows how to unlock value could/should be next...

  • Reply to

    Overseas Cash?

    by beprepared4infinityandbeyond Jun 25, 2014 11:48 AM
    antasia_x antasia_x Jun 25, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    They don't trade in the US

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