400 mil diabetics across the globe are sick and ssadistic, they love to stick themselves with needles 3-4 times a day. That is what you are betting on. Short more shares, sell your house and all your properties and short mnkd shares, you will be very rich.
i have already put anlot of money into it. 1/3 of my 401k is mnkd, the other 2/3 is fully liquid, ready to add on every drop. By the time this manipualtion is done I will have 30-40k shares.
give it 3-5 years. you live in San Jose? How about you short 20k shares, and I buy 20k more shares? let's see who makes more? We meet up in 3-5 years and see who has more money?
they can NOT manipulate unless they bait suckers to sell. They can only cover when suckers sell. At this level, pre FDA trading level, investors were willing to face FDA anhillation. Now that we have FDA approval and partner, there iswn't anything negative about this stock, only good news left to be seen. Why are suckers selling at 30-40% loss, I don't understand.
Google all these facts if you doubt .
Cost of insulin $700-1000/month without insurance
Insulin pump about $10,000/yr
Fact: The number one cause of delay in insulin treatment is fear of needles; pts diabetic complications get worse.
If Afrezza were priced at just $8,000/yr (between insulin pump and injection)
There 30 mil americans with diabetes, 400 mil world wide.
CURRENTLY half of diabetic population are on insulin injection during meals; the other half need it but don't want to start because of frequent painful injections.
American market alone, assume 15 mil will get on Afrezza for sugar spikes during meals.
$8,000/pt/yr x 15 mil= $12 bil of revenue. And that's only the US alone.
This period of silence and fear will shake and scare your shares away, management is in it, the shorts have covered 5 mil shares already, institutions are increasing ownership from 18% to 22% in recent update.
YOu are selling a $300 stock for $6 Remember the shorts covered 5 mil shares in 2 weeks while simultaneously bringing down price, this is manipulation to the extremee but they can't manipulate unless suckers sell
I was curious and started doing my own interview on pts with diabetes. I asked them what was the reason why they didn't start insulin sooner? They all said needles!!!!!
400 mil diabetics world wide will be on inhale insulin. There are now needle free accucheck too. Soon, needles will go obselete. This is an obvious scare to drain retailers of their shares until October/November when they have to advertise. 2 weeks left to manipulate shorties!!!! 2 weeks left, and you will be roast pigs, well done, put a fork in it.
gotta believe in something. I saw itunes as a game changer, bought in aapl at 14 and sold everything at 120, wish I had kept those shares longer. The same will happen with mnkd. 400 mil diabetics; they all hate needles. I just interviewed a number of pts the main reason why they didn't start their insulin sooner? Needles!!!!!
Most people have not heard of this product. I just convinced a number nurses with Diabetes to request for Afrezza in early 2015. I also spoke to my colleaque physicians about Afrezza. Do as much advertisement as you can for Afrezza; all we need is ONE doc in the entire hospital to know about this product to spread the advertisement. I am doing my part and I work for 4 different hospitals. Every diabetic patientsI encounter I advertise it.
Sanofi could use Techosphere to apply for new Lantus patent but this has no bearing on competing with Afrezza (short rapid acting insulin for meals).
everyday I am adding shares; this could be the most painful knife catchig or it could make me very rich (the latter is 95% confidence).
The most stupid thing I have ever witnessed. So investors were willing to gamble buying/holding at a higher share price facing complete anhilliation by the FDA rejection? Yet after the company's biggest success to FDA approval and partnership to potentially the biggest block buster in the history of pharmaceutical, and investors are selling at lower price than facing anhillation?
This gets as stupid and illogical as can be but it is what it is.....people are just plain stupid.
I am in the same frame of thinking as you. I think, after the success of their launch, some big pharma will buyout. Thus, we will not see $75 as you stated. I think a buyout around $50 will be offered around mid 2015 (I will take that four bagger).
your assessment is extremely conservative, only a short would use the US prandial insulin market to calculate the market cap for Afrezza. The other half of the diabetics who are in early stage who have good basal glucose control but they need insulin ONLY during meals. These are the patients who currently refuse injections because of inconvenience and fear of needles but they eventually ALL get worse.
And you are forgeting the rest of the world who can afford $1700/year. BTW insulin pump costs about $8500/yr/pt. Insulin injection without insurance costs about $5000/yr. Do your search! Where does afrezza fit into this price range?
I don't get excited about waiting for 5 years for $23/sh or $75/sh. My projection is at least $200-300/sh in 3 years, if we don't get bought out.
there are strategic reasons behind the deal with Sanofi, the 65% share is to give sanofi enough incentive for them to do their best in selling Afrezza. Also, any revenue under $2 bil could be written off as expense for mnkd; hence, that also forces Sanofi to do better in order to see profits and get to the 65% split.
there best selling drug Lantus is expiring, it's time to load it up with technosphere and create a new patent. Man, you are dumb. Why do you think mnkd gave them such a hefty 65% share? Because that in itself becomes another huge incentive for Sanofi to best sell AFrezza.
You have to think from Alfred Mann's perspective, how will he protect himself and ensures good faith from Sanofi. Everythng in this partnership contract does that.
Btw, not everyone is as dumb as you are, Mnkd management thought this through. Anything revenue under $2 bil, mnkd will keep and write off as expenses. This ensures the Sanofi will do their part to sell Afrezza in order to get the 65%; otherwise, Sanofi will end up paying all those fees forever until they see revenue exceeding $2 bil. Capish!?
on a side note, I don't doubt that Alfred Mann himself may want the price to be low in order to accumulate more. For the first time in the entire history of this company, Alfred Mann has full control of the company and he owns about 40% of total shares. Ultimately he wants to protect his share value but right now, I don't doubt that the silence is kept to bring down the price so they can accumulate more or Al Mann may have funds somewhere in which he hedged against his own shares during the FDA decision making. It wouldn't be unusual to protect himself against the FDA, but I suspect that would just be a small percentage and short term because ultimately it is the 40% stock ownerhsip that makes him very rich, not the hedge position.
it would be very difficult to calculate the cost from Sny or mnkd into making the revenue. You are correct that the 35% is from profit only, but to make the point, it would be easier to just say mnkd makes 35% of revenue. Mankind does have a cost which is insulin and manufacturing. Sanofi does have costs of additionals studies, regulatory, sales, and commericalization.