Pfizer paid $2 billion for Exubera that had poor uptake and long tails, and it was the size of a bong. $1 billion with 100 million shares and 40% of future profits is very cheap.
The SNY new CEO came on board around late Summer of 2014. Immediately they decided to do a controlled launch starting Feb/March of 2015. They knew as soon as the new CEO stepped in, Afrezza was not going to have any chance. Mnkd Management had nearly two yearsr to work on new deals
it's math, not a dream. Math does not lie; it tells you the possibility but under that possibility lies weaknesses of men that may not fulfill that potential.
thanks, the shorts will soon erase this post. They did twice already. They don't want anyone to see the potential.
yes, I did leave out the fact that not every sales rep are able to get 5 dinner conferences in a week, sick leaves, potential for less than 10 docs showing up to these AFrezza dinners, and not all docs who show up will become prescribers. We are all aware of that.
one dinner a week? what are these sales reps going to do in the other 4 days? C'mon man, outline our hospitals, get on your car, do a different city every day. These sales reps have nothing else to do except sale AFrezza; give them incentives and bonuses on milestones met.
If I was a sales rep, this is how I would tackle my sales. Monday, hold a dinner in a hospital in Anaheim, tues in Santa Ana, wed in Garden Grove, Thurs in Long Beach, etc...etc.
Sam Finta's data suggests that less than 100 docs who had been prescribing 600 scripts/wk, at a rate of 6 scripts/wk/doc.
Each sales rep can hold a drug rep dinner each day entertaining about 10 docs; thus, 70 reps can reach out to as many as 700 docs/day. In a week, sales reps can reach about 3,500 docs. At a rate of 6 scripts/wk/doc, with 700 docs the total scripts in a week is 21,000. On a second week, total weekly scripts would be 42,000 and by 3rd week it would be 63,000. In a year, the weekly scripts would be 1,092,000 per week. But the total number of scripts increases exponentially because it is additive after week.
So we have 70 hungry sales reps who sells nothing else except AFrezza. If this is done right, we can see $1,000/sh by 2018. I don't mind the dilution or whatever, as long as mnkd gets it done right this time.
90% of posts are shorts; they are losing it. Long's posts are deleted; especially anything that showed any convincing evidence that mnkd will have an epic run.
The shorts are panicking and erasing posts. 50-70 sales rep, selling nothing else but AFrezza will kill the shorts.
That's the reason my griffin gave a prive target of $4/sh, worse case is they can sell all TS and afrezza for $2-3 billion. Thus mnkd is way oversold. Exubera sold for $2 billion that didn't have the convenience of small inhaler and rapid onset. Al Mann factored out his risks, the verry least , he knew he would get his $1 bil back (150 million shares).
Have u seen the dosage of Viagra pills? 10-25 mg that has to get broken by gi tract and absorbed, you are saying a fraction of that is too big for the lungs? I don't believe it. Plus, inhaling something that drops BP has to be titrated via multiple inhalations to reduce risks of dropping blood pressure
Makes sense, they bought exubera for $2 bil and they have Viagra w expired patent. James Shannon came out of retirement to fine tune inhale Viagra. It's Huuuuuuge! No pun intended
Karp and A.Fartsteam know, that is the reason why they are getting paid to short and bash by BPs.
back to square one after SNY foul play.