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Nektar Therapeutics Message Board

apcabforever 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 3, 2016 8:54 PM Member since: Jan 10, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Need your input

    by gladpick Mar 2, 2016 3:52 PM
    apcabforever apcabforever Mar 3, 2016 8:54 PM Flag

    "Homers will be homers."
    Not at all.....This is my last post....tired of the whining and the silly and embarrassing comments about the SOB chairman and freeway death wishes. Biotech is what it is; a very risky investment with off the chart potential if realized. My investment is here for 2 reasons, the belief in their technology as it applies to partnerships and how it applies in the wholly owned solutions in the hot button arenas of pain management and oncology. The first, so far, can be viewed as a strong success. It has put a strong bottom under the share price and if success w/partners continues; that alone will raise the price significantly. And make no mistake, if HR did NOT succeed in convincing AZN to push forward with their nda for Movantik by renegotiating the deal(and as it turns out, all to nktr's benefit), then current price would be mid-single digits. The financing deals over the past 2 years have been excellent and cash does not appear to be an issue. Now, the other component of the thesis is that their ventures with 214 and 181 will succeed under the new regime in place or w/MD Anderson guiding the program. I think at least one of these can be the explosive solution that we all want. Once 102 took a back seat the path and expectations slowed down but the news released since last March has been positive and we are now entering the time frame where real movement can be expected, potentially within months. Many companies have less than desirable ceo performance(this one included); nktr's potential, to me, is of an orders of magnitude greater importance than that issue and at least this one has kept the potential on the front burner while dealing successfully with the non-sexy part of the business. Good luck to all and God bless....

  • Reply to

    Need your input

    by gladpick Mar 2, 2016 3:52 PM
    apcabforever apcabforever Mar 2, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    Forget HR for a second. For goodness sake, what did you expect to hear yesterday? To my reading there was much to go on the plus side of the ledger. Partnered drugs appear to be potential blockbusters(Movantik & Adynavate) while others are moving according to there own time lines. One thing I do believe, HR's statement that there are potential royalties and milestones amounting to about 750M/year is doable with the partners #$%$ the heavy lifting. In fact you can argue that ALL of those drugs stand a good chance of approval and are validating NKTR's technology. The problem seems to me to be when the company is doing there own trials and the old regime is gone and I have a different level of confidence with the new group. The original 181 and 102 studies were flawed. It was inexcusable for the interim report on 102 to only have 2 readouts....a stop or an indication that something good was happening and the trial should be continued. The added power gained by additional patients could/would have made all the difference. The new studies(214 w/MD Anderson and 181 with Dr. Gergel) are much more professionally drawn. Now, the increasing royalties and milestones are very important but the real gold ring is with 181 and 214(with related indies). Here is what I think happens. 214 will report out positive results which will show a strong safety profile which allows dosage levels to be maximized. This will open the gate to the second study but also to a potentially large set of combinations. This is when the real movement in sp will begin. 181, I am convinced they believe will show statistical significance, the path,tho, will be longer due to prudent frugality. If , over the next year or two, partners increasingly show positive results, then the level of confidence by the market will increase with the current and future crop of ventures. Anyone who expected to hear more yesterday wasn't paying attention. This is still my largest holding and I continue to be very positive.

NKTR
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