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RPC Inc. Message Board

apdplus 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2014 7:57 PM Member since: Sep 7, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Why the" Spin Off"

    by woodfrog8 Jul 21, 2014 1:48 PM
    apdplus apdplus Jul 21, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    Pride international did it a few years ago and it led to her being acquired by ESV but first it was Seadrill who was interested while owning 10% of PDE.
    Pride was $6bil market cap before being bought as will NE be after split.
    On the other hand Seadrill was $10 Bil at the time and now more like $20bil.
    With Interest rates this low , money so available and Seadrill being a financial wizard I will not be surprised.

  • apdplus by apdplus Jul 16, 2014 2:03 AM Flag

    I was pleasantly surprised, pis, that we share same feeling about global warming.
    Just a reminder that most oil in the Earth crust was created at a much higher temp/co2 level during the
    Dinosaur days,
    It is a shame humanity will blow up this 300mil years treasure in 200 years.
    This is also the reason why all the solar/wind schemes will never work since they do not have a million to one energy conversion as oil have (we spend each year oil which was accumulated using solar energy of 1 million years)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    On the Farm

    by pismire_03 Jul 9, 2014 4:07 PM
    apdplus apdplus Jul 10, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    Hi Pis, I am with you on this one with NE my only long position. Also have Silver which is contra market and short IWM.
    But NE is my long term investment because it was never been so cheap, even in 2009 bottom.
    P.S. Buy oil, they don't make it any more and we cannot live without it

  • Recently, I put a $100 target in a few years for NE. To put it in context, Oil (WTI) also had this long term bull flag that if will break upper downtrend of flag at $108-$110 (now $103), can reach to $200-300. This is the context in which NE will be $100.
    Fundamentally, this can happened as part of peak oil and the following scenario:The fed get scarred from a market fall, print additional QE which this time drive commodities up and the petro-Dollar collapse. Remote possibility but can happened. If it does, Gold too will skyrocket to $3000 and gold miners will do X5-X10!
    Full Disclosures- Together with NE I own gold miners and short the market.
    P.S. NE at $100 is only X2.5 times book and p/e=20 about what the market is now.

  • Reply to

    Double Bottom

    by pismire_03 May 17, 2014 8:32 PM
    apdplus apdplus May 19, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    This is basic bull flag technical analysis: if you look at a 25 years chart you see a bull flag that started in 2008 with a height of 200%(from $60 in 07-08 to $20 in 2009). center flag is $33 so if it break the down upper trend of the lag, now at $37 the upside should be the height of the flag =200% on $33which bring us to $100.
    Pure technical

  • Reply to

    Double Bottom

    by pismire_03 May 17, 2014 8:32 PM
    apdplus apdplus May 19, 2014 4:38 AM Flag

    It is all about the time frame:
    It is all about the time frame:
    1. Yes, if it clear $30.10 than it made a double bottom in the last two trading days.
    2. Since mid 2012 till Dec. 2013 (17 months!), NE was in an upward trending wedge which was broken to the downside in Dec. 2013. However, in 2014 after coming down from $39 to $29 looks like it made a reverse head and shoulder where the head was at $29 mid march, the left shoulder was on Feb 1 and the right shoulder on mid April and a second one in the last two days. If Ne clear the neck line at $31-$32 the upside target will be $35-$37.
    3. On a VERY long term chart, since 1990, we see that NE had a nice uptrend since $1 at 1995 till $60 in 2008 (YES! NE is a better performer than GOOG and many more tech... and all from profits which went to the bottom line, not like tech, since today it is treading at 0.9 tangible book. Only AMZN and AAPL did about X3 better than NE)
    Anyhow, since 2008 until now, there is definitely a bull flag after that huge up move in which we are now at $30 at the bottom of the declining trading range. If NE clear the upper Bull flag trading range at $37, the upside target will be $100 i a few years later!

  • NE at 0.91 price to book. ESV at 092, RIG at 0.93,ATW at 1.39, DO that payed nice dividends over the years at 1.64 and SDRL that pyes too much dividend at 2.2 !
    NE Dividend now at 4.9% and growing while RIG at 5.5%, ESV at 6%, DO at 6.5% and SDRL is 11% however the rest of the bunch dividend will not grow and may decline over the next few years.
    Comparing price to Tangible book, picture looks even better for NE:
    ESV is 36% more expensive,RIG is 24% ,ATW 52% , DO 80% and SDRL is 187% MORE expensive than NE while comparing price to tangible book.
    Why price to tangible book does matter? Because on any industry downturn(without bankruptcies), price usually stabilize around tangible book even if profits goes to Zero. If heavy losses are involved, then it is a different story but that never happened with drillers, even in 2008-9 bear market or even 2002, when Oil was $20!

  • Reply to

    Mystery surrounds Noble

    by pismire_03 Apr 30, 2014 12:33 PM
    apdplus apdplus Apr 30, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    Hi Pis. I have been enjoying your wisdom since 2009 and I think I have some explanation: Every bubble have it's hated group. Reason is "Analysts" need to show they are not too bullish on everybody. In 2000 it was the Home builders that came down 50% from 98 till March of 2000 . As the market peaked, they started a 500% up move.
    Now it is the drillers. Oh by the way, over 5 years now "analysts" complain of expected over supply.... so
    nothing new here.
    NE at 2009 bottom was about $22 Now at $30; add $4 dividends since July 2009 ; book value was $6.7 Bil, now 8.5 and you get cheaper valuation than the 2009 bottom (as a reminder in 2009 Oil was $50 and Cramer was saying all drilling contracts out the window!).
    As soon as the market will tank (any day now), hated groups will flourish because people will again realize "analysts" don't know Sh....t

  • Reply to

    Mystery surrounds Noble

    by pismire_03 Apr 30, 2014 12:33 PM
    apdplus apdplus Apr 30, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    Hi Pis. I have been enjoying your wisdom since 2009 and I think I have some explanation: Every bubble have it's hated group. Reason is "Analysts" need to show they are not too bullish on everybody. In 2000 it was the Home builders that came down 50% from 98 till March of 2000 . As the market peaked, they started a 500% up move.
    Now it is the drillers. Oh by the way, over 5 years now "analysts" complain of expected over supply.... so
    nothing new here.
    NE at 2009 bottom was about $22 Now at $30; add $4 dividends since July 2009 ; book value was $6.7 Bil, now 8.5 and you get cheaper valuation than the 2009 bottom (as a reminder in 2009 Oil was $50 and Cramer was saying all drilling contracts out the window!).
    As soon as the market will tank (any day now), hated groups will flourish because people will again realize "analysts" don't know Sh....t

  • Reply to

    Why the carnage--5% yield--6pe ratio

    by stokwiz96 Apr 30, 2014 10:27 AM
    apdplus apdplus Apr 30, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Somebody wanted to sell, so he does just before the Div, assuming people will buy to get the div. (tomorrow X).
    I have seen it before...

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