Well, in my area of business, we don't care about project revenue and resale revenue is icing on the cake. The cake, 97% of our target market is MRR - monthly recurring revenue on a 12 month contract or even better, 36 month contract.
The services play could be huge, and change their multiple. Once they have a strong foothold in the services industry, other lines of revenue become within reach as institutional expertise grows.
They could be developing, managing, lease, selling utility scale projects utilizing a pretty vertical stack...I like the services play.
Selling inverters is not like selling iPhones. I bought a 6S from a 6 cause I am a geek, but I would not replace my inverters very quickly....But I might pay montly for maintenance, monitoring, and tuning for my solar + (hopefully) battery system....
I keep hearing on this board that the exec team is paid largely in cash vs. stock. I have not looked, so cannot confirm, but I have see than before ...big time red flag. Growth companies should weight compensation heavily with stock based compensation if they are public owned....especially if there is no dividend....:|
Well, the exec team is doing a poor job marketing to the investment community apparently...
The fall in commodities/energy + flattening revenue + the interest rate hoopla + apparent market share loss to SEDG + investing in new technologies = a very weak stock.
I see the commodity/energy drop almost like a stimulus package and get (and like) that Enphase must innovate out of the potentially commoditized inverter market.
I am of the opinion (speculation of course) but that Enphase is uniquely positioned to succeed. Its all about the ecosystem. They have the inverters, the batteries, cloud data/app, and soon (at least from the PR) integration with panels. They also have 400+ million annual revenue, many customers, and vendors that must obviously like their products.
So the real question and analysis is what other vendor is that well positioned?
"half azzed"? You are starting to sound childish.
The Enphase battery is a great addition to their ecosystem. I would not purchase a new system without a battery or two...seems like a great idea as net metering gets watered down and my solar lights my house at night.
Instead of one liners, how about a list of the top three battery providers and systems installed.
You are again over reacting and myopic - I think that is why people find your posts irritating. ENPH's stock was almost at 18 months ago. SEDG was pre-IPO. Tables shift. Short term movements of the stock market are scary but that's not how more investors play it.
ENPH has some headwinds and risks, but they are a growing and innovative company in a growth industry. Battery, 5th gen, international sales, cost reductions...who knows. SEDG is a great company too...
Warren Buffet said something like, in the short run th stock market is a popularity contest and in the long run a measure of value (or something like that). Don't get caught up in the popularity contest....
#2 Was referring to the gen 5 mico-inverter - I believe it is coming out late 2015 as per the earning call...
I watched the CEO speak about it. I did not get new tech, just faster switching and more 'digital' processing power. maybe there is some giant advance or patent, but it sounded like an evolutionary step...or just their next gen.
One thing is certain though - SEDG is quite good at marketing themselves. Or has a great PR firm. This announcement, which has very little substance, is all over the place...
Nice post :\
1. Well, the battery. Its a huge market in the next 5-10 years, and Enphase is an early mover.
2. Next-gen Micro inverter coming in 2nd half 2015 (now-isn)
3. Panels with built-in Micro-inverters
4. Emerging market rebound (huge market for solar)
5. Legislation like this (California):
SB350 will no longer require the state to cut petroleum use in half over the next 15 years, but other components of the bill remain. The bill still calls for the state to boost energy efficiency in buildings by 50 percent and requires California to get half of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
6. Continued revenue growth
7. Cost-reductions for Micro-inverters
Not a sure thing, but at least they have a plan...
Your critical thinking is solid, but I think you are a bit myopic - much like the stock market we all follow. There are billions of structures in the world. Our atmosphere, geopolitics, and $$ are getting severed by solar better and better as the technology advances. Leaders lead then follow, then lead again.
Enphase has a great Microinverter that sells well. It is more efficient, has a great cloud interface, assists with panel monitoring, but it is expensive. They lost a large price sensitive installer, but are growing in niche markets and overseas. Gen 5 is coming with advances, and hopefully lower pricing - we'll see but they are still growing at ~33% $margin on inverter sales.
As far as a battery, your point is speculation - but they will have sales within 6 months. We don't know pricing, but we do believe there is a market. I mentioned this in another thread, but it was almost inconceivable a few years ago, now the idea of a small town barely served by a utility and relying on solar + battery as a shared 'private' grid. Your neighbor on vacation powers your LED lights at night and visa-versa. This is going to be a huge market in the next 20 years. Enphase is onboard and onboard with a real product and (hopefully) sales.
And finally, the stock is seriously cheap trading at 50% revenue. This could be a 10 bagger. Some risk, sure, but 24 months if their market cap was 2b, I would not be shocked in the least.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Loss of a 30% customer is huge. R&D spending (risk). Oil prices. Increased competition.
I am still bullish. 100's of millions of roofs to go, Gen 5 coming out, battery coming, and US housing market rebounding. Europe marketing showing signs of life. Pollution from coal is horrible. Image a nearly self-sufficient utility grid made up of millions of house all with batteries...Its not that much of a fantasy anymore.
May be a 12-24 month play, but I see this stock as a potential ten-bagger. Of course this is a high risk stock, so keep that in mind...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Rising home values are also a great metric for solar installs. Using your home equity to save money and add value to your home with Solar makes a ton of sense. The housing data looks great recently.
That is obviously moot if their pricing or technology is inferior, and thus they lose those sales to competitors.
Correct, that is speculative and forward looking. The results I posted actually occurred. The question is whether their growth trend that has been multiple quarters in the making is going to make an abrupt halt.
As per the earning transcript:
1. In the US market second quarter revenue was up 22% year-over-year
2. Our international business, revenue was up 37% year-over-year
Not wild growth, but ~25% YoY growth w/ a market cap of less than 2 quarters revenue seems off. With Margins hovering around 33%. Very solid results. We'll see what next quarter looks like.
As far as tech, I don't know enough to understand technology/pricing roadmap to comment yet...
Well, my thesis is there are a billion+ homes on the planet, and many individuals would benefit $-wise and all of us atmosphere-wise from having solar panels on the roof. Only a tiny fraction currently do, so long run Solar seems to be a great play. But like any great movement, there are winners and losers, so things do get shaken up...
Enphase faces some technical challenges reducing cost and some sales challenges getting their products in the mix at the largest installers, but their stuff works, is currently being sold at a 100mil a quarter clip, and is differentiated from its competition...I don't see them going out of business, but who knows...I think there is a ton of upside and will be fun to watch their tech improvements.