Your message is an interesting approach to valuation and I do not wish to challenge it.
However, I read a lot of messages on this board that refer back to $50/oz silver and the Hunt Brothers. I was a young, foolish investor back in 1981 who got hurt in the brief surge in the price of silver, and therefore remember the event well. A few points:
Silver went to $50+ ever so briefly. A chart of the event would resemble a very tall obelisk on the prarie. The run up was quick and the crash was a matter of days. By 1983 wasn't silver was flatlining at around $5, if my memory is correct (I'm to lazy to find a chart). And would do so for at least the next decade.
My point is this. Referring back to that brief price explosion in 1981 is pointless if trying to price silver for the coming decade. If the same surge happened again during this coming year, I predict that 95% of the posters on this board would not be able to call the top and get out with the perfect timing required in such a quick up-down event. Aside from a few brief weeks of craziness, silver was below $8 throughout the 1980s--as I best recall. The $50 price lasted so briefly that few benefited.
Moc, I have no problem with your PM price projections, but your extrapolation of those numbers to a HL share price of $66 doesn't account for 2 other factors:
1) HL management's moves - such as acquisitions, mergers, or dilutions. (Probably for the worse, IMO).
2) The broader stock market - a crash could seriously override some of the positive effects of PM prices. (The 2007-2008 crisis crashed commodities and miners.)
Board members, I'm long HL, so don't bother to rant about me a basher.
Agreed. My belief is that such leverage on the downside and a lack of leverage on the upside is mainly attributable to an underlying lack of confidence by shareholders in HL's management. Shareholders have been rudely surprised, if not betrayed, by management in the past and always fear having bad news sprung upon them. Hedging the base metals and the 2008 stock dilutions while at ridiculous prices are examples.
I want to join with the impressively long list of others who have sent their condolences. All the best to your wife and your family. Hopefully, a sound philosophical outlook will help you spare yourself from any excessive emotional torment. Fortunately, the passage of time will help heal everyone's emotional pain.
I currently am care-taking my 98-year-old mother who is deteriorating rapidly and I have been struggling with that very difficult situation for many months. This new year may include the same type of hospice experience for her about which you write.
Quite helpful. You're obviously a generous guy to type so much and share your research. Appreciated.
I'm looking for a silver miner to gamble on, with big upside potential. (I took a bath on HL back when it diluted after buying more than it could pay for, and during this past year I recovered my losses with a position in HL that I am holding--indefinitely). You often advocate holding HL for the long long term. My greatest concern is that the stock markets in general are way over priced currently and likely to tumble in coming months, IMHO. In the event of another crash or serious downdraft, HL is likely to follow-- in spite of HL's great fundamentals.
Sorry I didn't mention your big member, but I must have missed that post.
I started to look into a possible investment in USSIF based upon your postings, which I respect. You're one of the most logical, reasonable-sounding posters on this board (plus you can spell words and punctuate your sentences well). I notice you're very positive toward USSIF.
Could you clarify if I am interpreting this correctly: USSIF.PK, QE2.F, and USA.V are all the same company (or subsidiaries) trading under different symbols for different prices on various exchanges (Toronto, Frankfurt, and Vancouver, respectively). Am I correct? If so, how many shares outstanding exist?
I was able to find a little data on production. Q3-2010 approx 500,000oz of AG @at cost of approx. $13. And, 2010 year's forecasted production of AG of 2,400,000 @ $13. I don't view those figures as all that great. What are you seeing that I don't?
Finally, could you provide a link to financial data (e.g., profit-loss; balance sheet figures; market capitalization . I couldn't find anything on my initial net search that gave me any insight into the financial strength of this company.
And my basic question to Club is: What factors specifically entice you about USSIF?
Do not underestimate the government's role in undercutting persons choosing to hold silver and gold. Via price fixing or confiscation, just to name a couple of possible govt strategies.
I acknowledge that PMs may serve their owner's well in a short period of total financial collapse coupled with anarchy--if PM owners can make it to that point. But before total collapse, there may be several months, if not a few years, of our government trying to eliminate the possibility of private ownership of PMs.
Reuter's coverage of CFTC:
"The following are highlights from a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission hearing on Thursday that introduced rules for swap execution facilities, and limits for speculative positions held by commodity traders.
It was the eighth meeting the CFTC has held as part of a broader push by the agency to implement rules to overhaul the $600 trillion over-the-counter swaps market under the Dodd-Frank financial law enacted in July.
Speakers at the hearing include Chairman Gary Gensler and commissioners Michael Dunn, Jill Sommers, Bart Chilton and Scott O'Malia.
O'MALIA ON SEFS PROPOSAL AND BLOCK TRADES
"I want to make sure that through electronic trading we're checking the box, and we're getting pre-trade transparency to the absolute extent we can. We also have work to make sure we get on exchange."
Just to say 'well I'm sorry man put it on the block,' that doesn't give us the transparency we need on either factor. It doesn't promote on exchange and it doesn't promote pre-trade transparency. I don't want that to be a useful cop-out. I want to put as much as we can on the exchange and therefore I believe we must have flexible venues for exchanges."
SOMMERS ON SEFs AND WORKING WITH SEC:
"I'm specifically more concerned about them (SEC) allowing any type of system and not being as restrictive as we are being on the definition of a SEF."
"How do we deal with that when the industry will have two different standards?"
RIVA SPEARS ADRIANCE, WITH CFTC, ON WORKING WITH SEC ON SEFS:
"We don't know where they are going to end up."
"They are still in the process of working out a lot of details."
"I don't know what their final rule-making will be but we certainly know that they are dealing with some different issues than some of the issues that we're dealing with."
I used Interactive Brokers for about 3 years, while also having accounts with Schwab and TDAmeritrade at the same time (I use 6 monitors). I end up closing that account. IB is definitely not for amateurs.
In my experience, IB had its pros and cons. It was great for getting access to various products that neither Schwab or TDA offered, such as direct access to Asian and European exchanges; commodity futures via various exchanges; foriegn currencies; and trading 24hrs a day, if desired. Also, you can have your account denominated in alternative base currency, other than the US Dollar. However (now the cons), the interface of their trading platform was very complex and confusing, sometimes leading to frustration or erroneous trades. What really caused me to close the account was the format of their statements regarding my account... I was always confused and I think I am pretty competent at deciphering cryptic bills and statements. It was simply hell trying to figure out how they made their mark-to-market computations, etc., which was partly complicated due to my account being denominated in Canadian Loonies.
The Fed is there to support the speculators and they let the 'real economy' go to hell.
Here's a great summary of the present condition of our economy and the role the Fed and its banks are playing. It captures the true problem behind high unemployment, and the rest of the list of economic problems.
Worth 6 minutes in my opinion.
The Euro game is up.
Here is a short 3 minute speech that is more likely to make you laugh rather than tell you anything you didn't already know. Well worth the 3 minutes, IMHO.
I think you are being too generous in regard to Baker's understanding of the silver market. As I recall, a couple of years ago, under Baker's leadership, HL purchased the remaining interest in the Lucky when silver prices were peaking, just ahead of plummeting Silver prices. Regarding the silver market, Baker's timing was horrible and the error almost bankrupted HL (and did lead to huge amounts of new shares being issued to pay for Baker's poor timing).
Also, recently he unloaded a huge amount of his own shares of HL, just before the silver market popped upward. More poor timing on his part.
And, of course, there is the issue of hedging nickel and lead ... for a loss.
What has Baker done to demonstrate that his understanding of the silver market (or the metals markets) is any better than yours or mine? Guido, upon what actions of Baker's do you base your favorable comment toward Baker?
"I listen to the tape.I block out noise"
A strange comment from someone who is constantly on this message board. No noise here, right?
I've read several articles like this one (linked below) on scamming the market by using fast computers with special connections to the exchanges (High Frequency Trading).
It is outrageous that the SEC tolerates these activities.
Quoting from this article: "This is not a minor development; High Frequency Trading now represents about 70% of the trading volume in the U.S. equity market." That means tech analysis using volume is almost meaningless, being based on false data.
Another quote: "The bottom line for us ordinary market participants is that insiders are using computers to game the system, extracting billions of dollars from the rest of the market."
Even offerings of 0.0% interest rates didn't solve the auto manufacturer's problems did it? I don't think low interest rates are going to be the home builder's salvation either.
Tim, how I relish seeing someone have the courage to write what you just wrote about religion. I agree heartily. Throughout the past two millenniums and probably longer, religions have been a plague upon mankind. It is a devious tool used for self-aggrandizement by one man to manipulate and oppress another.
Yesterday (Wed.) DOW was down 226 points and RYL went down only 93 points.
Today, currently, DOW is down another 49 points, yet RYL has total recovered yesterdays loss. Conclusion: RYL wants to run up yet more, and homebuilder stocks have more strength than the overall market.
1) Receipts are down 1%, but it has been widely reported that KSS and others were offering heavily discounted prices to keep receipts up. Therefore, margins should be down, if reports of discounting are correct. Consequently, lower margins applied to lower receipts should mean lower profits.
2) New store openings boosted the total store count by approx. 10%. Yet, today it was reported that total store receipts were up by only about 4%. Doesn't this imply that the new stores performed poorly?
I think you have misplaced your decimal point on the tax expense. Count your zeros. Example: tax expense was $207,166,000 (tax year 2006) and 273,999,000 (2005). A refund of taxes paid/owed would be significant.