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Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. Message Board

applengineer 589 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 9:40 AM Member since: Jun 23, 2010
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  • applengineer applengineer Jul 18, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    How can you resign if you get fired first?

  • Think about it for a minute. If YDT is cleared of the RT allegation, it clears a major allegation for NQ - and a huge weight will lift off investors shoulders. So if Henry wants to help the stock and Rachel wants to help Henry - assuming no RT existed at any given time, it's a WIN-WIN for shareholders and the company.
    Bottom line: There is absolutely no downside to an expanded audit of YDT if Rt'ing doesn't exist - and I doubt for a minute that Rachel would refuse the audit considering the bulk of YDT's revenues and/or it's very existence may depend on NQ's survival.

  • When will Fred WAKE-UP?? Doesn't he have a responsibility and duty to be mindful of the enormous losses his clients have suffered on his flawed recommendation?? On March 12, 2014 Topeka's Fred Ziegel affirmed his Buy rating and $36.75 price target, before lowering to $30 on April 11, only to raise it half way up again to $33 on May 1, and then to reiterate it AGAIN June 10. Ziegel said on May 1, "We reiterate our Buy rating ($33 PT) while reducing our 2014 EPS estimate to reflect the margin dynamics of the NQ business model." "Margin Dynamics"?? What a shill.

    The reality of NQ's "margin dynamics" is: Gross margin is plunging 1900 basis point YOY and 1070 points sequentially. Gross margin was 48.8% in the fourth quarter of 2013, compared with 67.8% in the same quarter a year ago and 59.5% in the previous quarter. During the April 10 earnings call, management excused the decline in gross margin due to "increased revenue contribution of mobile games and advertising, which have lower gross margins than the mobile security subscription revenues". Well, how are mobile games on fire when FL Mobile's itunes publisher account is still suspended - and how can NQ's advertising model be relevant when NQ Mobile has a missing viral social element?

    So if you listened to Fred on the March 12 client note when shares were trading at $18.91, you are now down a staggering 85% on your NQ investment - and only 1100% away from his $33 price target.

    Of note are three of the five analysts covering NQ, Piper Jaffray, Canaccord, and Wedge, who've acted responsibly by either terminating or suspending coverage. The lone "outliars" are now Topeka and Macquire.

  • In light of the topsy-turvy news this morning, I reflect on my earlier thoughts:
    NYSE Noncompliant Issuers: NYSE Regulation publishes a list of issuers that are noncompliant with NYSE quantitative/qualitative continued listing standards (collectively “.BC”) or that are delayed in filing an annual or interim report required pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (a late filer or “.LF”). Of course, the list includes NQ, one of only 21 companies on the list.

    So we know the NYSE is watching NQ like a hawk. They sent a letter to NQ headquarters 10 days after the two week extension requesting a "Plan", on or about May 25, 2014. Exactly one month later, and no official press on a "Plan" or synopsis of communication with the NYSE to allay investor fears.
    From NYSE 802.03: "Within 30 business days after receipt of the letter, NQ must contact the Exchange to confirm receipt of notification, discuss any possible financial data of which the Exchange may be unaware, and indicate whether or not it plans to present a Plan. NQ has 3 months from the receipt of the letter to submit its Plan to the Exchange for review; otherwise, suspension and delisting procedures will commence."

    One would assume since NQ issued 82 press releases (many redundant) last year, some just to announce malware variants detected by NQ Mobile Security, they would've mentioned positive developments with the exchange they exist on - IE, the PLAN.

  • "PwC has requested that the Company provide PwC with access to multiple third parties' original bank statements and financial records."

    On Yidatong:
    1) Why did YDT's email servers ping back to NQ's IP?
    2) Why did NQ lend YDT $2,279,000 mil to pay for YDT's G&A, and then claim YDT as an unrelated party?
    3) Why did NQ use YDT as a SP when they have their own SP license?
    4) Why did NQ classify YDT as an unrelated party? Xu being director of YDT since February 2006 while working for NQ through 2008 - then leaving to buy 75% equity in YDT.
    5) Why did NQ buy a dozen companies in 2013 (many lacking core asset synergies) and not buy YDT? After all, YDT reportedly provides NQ with $20-25 mil of annual revenues, net of YDT's fees, which would be immediately accretive to NQ's bottom line.
    These are just a few of the many YDT questions inquiring minds want to know.

    On Asiainfo-Link
    Mrs Ying Han, NQ's SI committee chairperson resigned from the audit panel for "personal reasons". Han was also VP and former CFO of AsiaInfo-Linkage - the second purported RT SP vehicle on JCap.
    So is there more to this story too?
    The walls keep crumbling down.

  • applengineer applengineer Jul 17, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Who knows, maybe I'd have lost my mind too if I saw my asset evaporate from $10000 to $1900 in the course of 5 months.

  • applengineer applengineer Jul 17, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    OK, Assistant to the Chief MB Jester

  • applengineer applengineer Jul 17, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    OK, Chief MB Jester

  • applengineer applengineer Jul 17, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    Hey coach, you make Cumberland look bad. You're obsessive attack on a mb poster only reinforces your desperation and discredits you even more than you already have been discredited. It would make more sense to worry about your beloved NQ, or at a minimum project your anger at NQ mgt for failing you and investors who are now all underwater.

  • applengineer by applengineer Jul 16, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    From the MoneyShow 2/17/14:

    Steve Halpern: Maybe you'll share a couple of those opportunities directly with our listeners and perhaps tell us a few names of the stocks that people should have on their radar.

    Jim Oberweis: Yeah, you know, and I'll give you an example of names that people hate too, because sometimes those can be some of the most exciting ones. One, if you pull up—that's been in the news a lot lately—as shareholder, is a company called NQ Mobile (NQ).

    When people hate Chinese equities it's really easy to call—to use the word fraud and point the finger without a lot of documentation and really bring down the price of stock. That happened at NQ.

    We had a reasonable sized position when Muddy Waters wrote a report. We actually became the largest shareholder of the company and brought our position to 1.8 million shares, at, around, $11.

    I was there in China. I visited the company, I went to the bank, I checked their financial statement, we met with their companies, we met with the distributors, we met with everybody and walked away thinking that, at a minimum, the bearish reports were greatly, greatly over-exaggerated and more likelym were just wrong.

    Anyway, the stock is back up to $18 but we still like it here. We think at this level it's a great price.

    Overweis now down over 60%!
    Whale wisdom.

  • applengineer by applengineer Jul 16, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Interesting to note that Henry's been DEAD silent on his blog since April 11, 2014 - while tons of nonsensical propaganda and photo albums (lots of SCVs) posted up until then. So the total silence from Henry coincides with the Q4 2013 earnings release on April 11 (China time). Remember this famous last quote at the END of the cc?

    Michael Walkley - Cannacord Genuity
    Okay, that's helpful. And I guess just last question from me and I'll pass it on, is, any updated timing on just when the 20-F might be filed? Is there a certain date in mind or is there a certain deadline you have to have that filed by just to -- just that'd be helpful. Thank you.

    Omar Khan - Co-CEO
    Yes. Thanks, Mike. So based on the current fully integrated schedule that all the parties associated with the process are working from, we are planning on meeting the statutory deadline for the 20-F.

    Michael Walkley - Cannacord Genuity
    And what is that date?

    Omar Khan - Co-CEO
    The end of the month. The end of April.

    Michael Walkley - Cannacord Genuity
    Okay. Great. Thank you.

    There are no coincidences in life - I believe the dead silence on Weibo and Khan's skirting of the 20-F discussion until the unavoidable question at the very end of the call - reinforces the theory that NQ mgt new more than they chose to disclose during the Q4 conference call. Quite sketchy indeed.

  • Reply to

    SA article just out on NQ

    by z4abtrlife Jul 16, 2014 7:22 AM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 16, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    FYI, Justin Giles is a Permabull since $23, not to mention he rehashes the old and lacks articulation.

  • Reply to

    Update is just around the corner

    by truthandjust Jul 15, 2014 2:20 AM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 15, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    Think about it for a minute. If YDT is cleared of the RT allegation, it clears a major allegation for NQ - and a huge weight will lift off investors shoulders. So if Henry wants to help the stock and Rachel wants to help Henry - assuming no RT existed at any given time, it's a WIN-WIN for shareholders and the company. Bottom line: There is absolutely no downside to an expanded audit of YDT if Rt'ing doesn't exist - and I doubt for a minute that Rachel would refuse the audit considering the bulk of YDT's revenues and/or it's very existence depends on NQ's survival.

  • Reply to

    Update is just around the corner

    by truthandjust Jul 15, 2014 2:20 AM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 15, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    Wait...."NQ cannot comply with expanded audit of YDT?? Rachel is more than cozy with Henry. Remember the almost $5mil interest free loans to YDT to make G&A, not to mention the two year employment at NQ? So if Henry really wanted an expanded audit of YDT, I doubt YDT would fail to oblige.

  • Reply to

    NQ Mobile could be SPRINT Mobile

    by tlmtrogers75 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 15, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Hmmm, didn't know I had a StockTwits account. Only twitter, thank you.

  • Reply to

    Update is just around the corner

    by truthandjust Jul 15, 2014 2:20 AM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 15, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    I would guess that NQ is sitting on their hands with a quagmire - dismiss PwC or expand the scope of the investigation ala YDT and AsiaLink (ex-SI chair Ms Han's CFO gig). Does KCCW even have a PRC affiliate?
    As for Toro, this must be Kwon's last stand, like his infamous failed Ambow investment and embarrassing Barron's pump. With NQ shares near 52week low, there are likely few (if any) institutional investors left above water. Toro bought about 7.6 mil ADS of NQ stock during Q4 2013 (and now owns over 11 million shares including options). Even if Toro's one-man show Taek Kwon was lucky enough to buy at the earlier flashcrash low of $$7.58 on October 28, 2013, that's a $58 mil buy-in. So bases on the $32 million under management ADV disclosure, it appears Toro is margined to the gills at a factor of 2x++.
    Leverage aside, suppose Toro bought in at a much higher cost? NQ traded between $7.58 and $25.90 during Q4 2013, so it's anyone's guess. For a fund manager with two desks in Bob Fisher's SF office, likely managing most of Fisher's personal money, there is much to worry about. Recall that Toro's Kwon also bought Ambow all the way to zero, even pumping the stock on Barrons just months before the company's demise. Well dejavu, Kwon hasn't changed his style, as he had every opportunity to sell his NQ stake at $23 just 5 months ago and make Bob happy. That said, given the likely leverage of Toro's NQ holdings, this is a pure gambler double-down mentality to "get back to even" play - no two ways about it. I just don't believe he has the power to keep his NQ holdings for much longer IF leverage is in play - for as each day passes, the margin police may come knocking. So what good will it serve to be on the board now? Perhaps so he can be there in person to watch the ship sink?

  • Reply to

    NQ Mobile could be SPRINT Mobile

    by tlmtrogers75 Jul 15, 2014 1:18 PM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 15, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    I would hope a $100mil (now $25mil) NQ co-CEO (ex Samsung exec with 4 cohorts) could muster up at least this much. Furthermore, if the deal follows NQ's typical preload agreement with carriers/handset makers (page 15 most recent 20-F) - NQ pays a fee for each phone flashed. But regardless of the financial terms, as I see it, NQ Live replacing Sprint ID is one failure destined to replace another failure. NQ Live's platform can be viewed as "supercharged bloatware", or glorified live wallpaper cluttered with Sprint partners (or user products/services) - while draining significant amounts of processing power and and battery life. But random ads for products and services popping up on your phone's screen (whether the consumer uses them or not) is nothing more than next generation mobile spam. So while the company pitches the great partnership with Sprint and Samsung's S5 Sport phone, there's much doubt as to whether NQ's wallpaper becomes the next company flagship. Furthermore, NQ lacks the viral element to succeed. Baidu search, Qihoo browser, Tencent QQ IM, they all have that holy grail. NQ live?? Enough already.

  • Reply to

    Dear Shorts....

    by congoisking Jul 14, 2014 5:52 PM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 15, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    a) Back out the convertibles, intangibles, and goodwill - and you have $2.76. Then, even liquidation value may vanish to $zero with the complex VIE structure - so rather than anticipating 14 million shorts exploding with covering, worry about 14 million shorts with conviction holding to $zero.
    b) On Deloitte: Let's lawyer up by hiring the law firm of Shearman & Sterling to "handle" the matter. (FYI, Shearman & Sterling was also retained by Sino Tech Energy Ltd, a massive fraud which unfortunately for shareholders, the law firm was unable to stop the bleeding to subsequent pink sheet delisting, last quote 2 cents per share. Then let's have Shearman hire Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu to conduct the "special" audit. (FYI, the same auditor who represented Longtop Financial, an even more massive fraud that went to zero. In fact, they were finally forced to resign or face criminal charges themselves if they continued to sit on the books that were cooked for years prior - finally resigning to the SEC by admitting that "they were duped") . Audaciously desperate or astonishingly stupid?? If NQ ws genuine about clearing themselves, they should've accepted CB's offer to pay for the FA and special attestation report - would've saved $1 billion++ market cap and $2 mil in fees (if exonerated). BTW, from the SI committee findings: "On many devices, the Investigation Team observed indications that some information might be missing, and the Company's management and staff were unable to provide a credible explanation for what the Investigation Team observed". So revealing many devices had missing data - assumes a sum of countless missing files - and do devices mean NQ's servers were missing files (invoices, YDT sales reports, etc)? My guess is YDT (or AsiaLink) was not forthcoming in disclosing paper trail to the carrier POS. So with 20%++ revenue at stake, this is a crucial missing link.
    c) Google Play is a mirage -15 mil paid subs is FACT! Robos and Filipinos (reviews) are pros.
    GLTY

  • Reply to

    NQ cash/share 4.69. NQ stock price 4.49

    by dickwithtieon Jul 7, 2014 4:37 PM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 8, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Back out the convertibles, goodwill, and intangibles, and book value is $2.76 - WITH the assumption that shareholders retain rights to the VIEs.

  • Reply to

    Co-CEO Khan Lost 85% of his Net Worth in NQ

    by applengineer Jul 8, 2014 4:06 PM
    applengineer applengineer Jul 8, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    There was some sarcasm meant. Even at $4 PPS, $15 mil / 4 years - $3.75 mil/year as co-CEO (1/2 CEO) who couldn't name more than one province in China NQ does business in and doesn't manage day-to-day ops for virtually all of NQ revenues. An expensive sock puppet.

NUS
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