So yes, someone just comming down with it IS contagious...and after getting on a plan their initial symptoms are a mild headache, cough, sneeze, or low grade fever....and a sneeze on a plan sends bodily fluids/spores within a few feet...and a cough into one's hand spreads it on hands, and touching a rest room door spreads it easily. Even tho it may or may not be a large scale outbreak...once the news spreads that potentially infected travelers are on airplanes, it may cause widespread fear enough to keep many from flying and investors will head for the exits panic style. The question is, do you want to take profits now and wait until this passes, or hold on and wait for more bad news stories to come out and watch your share value plummet?
The Ebola story could cripple the airlines because it is a very nasty virus spread especially thru air travel....this could cause alot of fear in the flying public, making many stay on the ground. May be a good time to take some AAL profits and sit on sidelines until this bugaboo passes.
Ebola, Spreading in Africa, Could Land in US
Jul 28, 2014, 4:01 PM ET
By KATIE MOISSE
KATIE MOISSE More From Katie »
An Ebola outbreak that has killed at least 672 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone could land in the U.S., health officials said.
Symptoms of the disease, such as fever, red eyes and bleeding, can take up to three weeks to appear -- ample time for an unwitting victim to travel outside the West African hot zone.
“It’s true that anyone with an illness is just one plane ride away from coming to the U.S.,” said John O’Connor, a spokesman for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “But we have protections in place.”
Everything You Need to Know About West Africa's Ebola Outbreak
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Deadly Infections Up Close
Airline workers are trained to spot symptoms, and quarantine officers at 20 major U.S. airports, including New York City’s JFK, are ready to respond to an in-flight illness. The CDC has also deployed teams to West Africa to help contain the outbreak on the ground, O’Connor said.
“There’s nothing to prevent someone traveling here asymptomatically during the incubation period,” said ABC News’ chief health and medical editor Dr. Richard Besser, who served as acting director of the CDC during the swine flu outbreak. “It’s one of the reasons we have a vested interest in helping to control outbreaks where they start.”
PHOTO: Dr. Kent Brantly, seen at left treating an Ebola patient in Liberia this year, has now become one of two Americans known to have been
Ebola yet another scary blow to air travel uncertainties....
Airlines are going to have their hands full as infected air travelers start to emerge...and the ones infected don't even know they are.
The last thing we need is another thing to scare air travelers...this story will not be good airlines stocks as it starts to unfold.
Yesterday's Plane crash scared the airline sector pretty good. As soon as the market realizes this is an "isolated" incident over a small disputed Ukraine war zone area done by rebels, and will not effect Europe, AAL will re-bound quickly to its $44 level....and with earnings blowout expected next week, look for a solid runup later today or Monday as details emerge over the weekend on the rebel's being the source of the crash. Of course this is a big tragedy for the passenger and families, and of course it creates an unusual buying opportunity due to human nature and fear.
Look for nice AAL Runup this week, leading into earnings next week.
Could see mid to high $40's by Friday, and possibly low $50's early next week leading up to earnings release. If it blows estimates away, could see mid $50's and up.
July 15, 2014, 2:08 P.M. ET
Expect American Airlines, Southwest to Beat Earnings, Cowen Says
By Ben Levisohn
American Airlines (AAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Alaska Air (ALK) are set to report earnings next week–and Cowen’s Helane Becker and Conor Cunningham think they’ll be flying:
Alaska, American and Southwest are our highest conviction calls into 2Q14 earnings; they will report July 24.We are at the higher end of consensus expectations and believe the three companies have a high probability of exceeding Street expectations. American has a history of exceeding expectations. Southwest and Alaska generate the majority of their revenue and income in the US domestic market, and that market saw solid PRASM gains in 2Q14 with Southwest and Alaska being the main beneficiary of the strong demand and yield trends.
Becker and Cunningham are also starting to buy into the turnaround at United Continental (UAL):
United’s revenue growth continues to lag the peer group, but the company is in turnaround mode (again). Last week United updated 2Q14 guidance, and it was above their prior forecast; the stock responded and was up 10% during the trading day. The question now is whether this success can be replicated going forward. We believe the answer is yes it can, but we still expect United’s PRASM growth to continue to lag Delta Air Lines (DAL) and American, but that is more a function of being conservative. United’s Pacific exposure was a drag on the business earlier in the year, but that will likely adjust as the comps ease later in the year. Management’s cost reduction effort also appears to be paying off and should begin to accelerate. The market appears to be less skeptical about the potential turnaround now given the slowly improving PRASM trends.
Shares of American Airlines have gained 0.7% to $43.27 at 2:04 p.m., United Continental has risen 0.7% to $45.24, Alaska Air has dropped 0.5% to $49.50 and Southwest Airlines
Airline Investors Have Been Waiting for a Dose of Good News: They Just Got 3!
By Adam Levine-Weinberg | Motley Fool
July 10, 2014 | Comments (0)
A solid update from American Airlines
American Airlines started off the airlines' party on Wednesday morning. The carrier reported that passenger revenue per available seat mile, or PRASM, increased by 5.5%-6.5% during Q2. That falls right in the middle of the company's previously provided range of 5%-7%.
American Airlines added that it expects a Q2 pre-tax margin of 12%-13%, excluding special items. That will put it near the top of the airline industry. Historically, double-digit profit margins have been rare for airlines. However, industry consolidation is allowing most airlines to report dramatically higher earnings than in prior years.
This news has already been factored in stock price 2 days ago...and because of it stock is now up 6% in 2 days!! Looks like gonna beat earnings estimates thru the roof...looking at 50+ real soon.
They doing duck & cover now, being squeeeezed to the hilt, and will probably evaporate by Friday.
July 9th 2014
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is moving higher today after it reported largely favorable traffic numbers for June, and also raised its earnings forecast for the second quarter.
The Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier said its revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in June were up 1% over the same month last year to 19.9 billion, while it also increased its total capacity by 3.2% from last year to 23.4 billion available seat miles (ASMs).
Going forward, the company said its passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM), a key industry metric, was expected to rise between 5.5-6.5% in the second quarter of fiscal 2014, ended June 30. American Airlines had earlier forecasted its second quarter unit revenues to grow in the range of 4-6%.
The airline also expects its pre-tax margin for the second quarter to improve to around 12-13%. The upbeat guidance came only a day after American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said he expects global travel demand to stay robust in the coming months.
The announcement from the carrier marks a refreshing twist to the recent selloff in airline stocks, following a disappointing June operating report from Delta Airlines, Inc. (DAL), when it posted unit revenue growth that came in below analysts’ estimate.
Investor concerns on the Delta report and further news of weakness from European airlines caused quite a bit of worry over a slowdown in demand, and overcapacity in the global airline industry.
But many sell-side analysts, including those at Deutsche Bank, have moved to comment that the capacity and pricing concerns were overblown, and that the market had overreacted to the news. They argue that domestic carriers were not directly affected by global industry trends, with Deutsche reaffirming its bullish outlook on big-name carriers like American Airlines, United Continental (UAL) and Delta.
Shares of American Airlines are up around 4.5% today in the first half hour of trading in New York;
Airlines Routed Again, Time to Buy?
By Ben Levisohn
July 7, 2014
Last week, Delta Air Lines’ (DAL) June data dump disappointed investors–and clobbered airline stocks like United Continental (UAL), American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV). Cowen’s Helane Becker and Conor Cunningham think the selloff created a buying opportunity:
We continue to believe the airlines are focused on capacity discipline and returning capital to shareholders. In our view, airlines have to grow capacity at least in line with GDP growth to generate higher revenues. Airlines had a tough day last Wednesday following Delta Air Lines June traffic release. Traffic was up by 3% on 3.1% more capacity; unit revenue was up 4.5%. The market was disappointed by the unit revenue increase and the comments from Delta Air Lines that international yields showed signs of decline due to capacity increases. The stocks were down 2.3%…
We viewed this as a buying opportunity. We believe the industry is still focused on the right things, and although capacity is increasing, revenues are mostly keeping pace. Delta guided to a 14%-16% June quarter operating margin. Costs are increasing; revenues must increase at least in line with costs.
Stifel’s Joseph DeNardi and Sawyer McKelvey looks at the seasonal performance of airlines including Delta, United Continental and Southwest and find that the group typically lags during the third quarter:
Given the seasonality associated with passenger traffic demand, we look at stock performance seasonality within the industry relative to the S&P 500 – the results surprised us. On average, the strongest quarters for airline relative stock performance were the first and fourth with an average outperformance of 8.5% since 2010. The second quarter outperformed by 6%, on average, while the third quarter underperformed by an average of 4%.
Shares of Delta Airlines have dropped 2% to $37.84 at 10:43 a.m., while United Continental has fallen 1% to $39.5
Strong close on Friday. Look for continued momentum this week. $47+ Close this week, with $50 + early July. Buckle up peeps. Load up strong & stay long : )
Well, we got $44.55 close today...only .45 cents short of my predicted Friday close of $45. Still calling for close of high $40's next week, and into the $50's in July. Load up long, load up strong.
American Airlines Group: A Strong Buy
Jun. 19, 2014 8:04 PM ET | About: American Airlines Group (AAL), Includes: DAL, LUV, UAL
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
American Airlines is trading at a discount to its peers.
American has $10 billion of cash, which it will likely use to launch a stock buyback program.
Airline industry is better equipped to deal with rising oil prices and a decline brought on my tensions in Iraq is a buying opportunity.
Since its formation following the merger of US Airways and American Airlines in late 2013, shares of the new combined carrier, American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) are more than 68%. However, I believe significant upside remains.
Valuation Discount To Peers
As shown by the chart below, AAL is trading a significant discount to the other major airlines, Delta (DAL), United Continental (UAL), and Southwest (LUV). While Delta and Southwest have proved to be the best operators, and deserve to trade at a premium, United has not proved to be a great airline operator and is also trading at a big premium to AAL. In addition to trading at a significant discount to peers, AAL also has the ability to significantly enhance its earnings through cost cutting related to the integration of US Airways and American. In my view, at the very least, AAL should be trading at the same P/E as United. The consensus forecast for 2014 AAL earnings is $5.21 per share. Using United's current forward multiple of 11.5, AAL should be trading at $60 per share.
IRAQ Oil situation NOT an issue for AAL
Oil field captured by ISIS is in norther Iraq and is only for domestic Iraq consumption. Its the southern oil fields that are used for export, and are firmly in government control. Plus the US will make sure the southern oil fields stay protected.
Once the market gets clear on this, AAL to spike much higher. Looking at high 40's next week. 50's in July easy.
LAST DAY AAL ON SALE, WILL BE BACK UP PAST $43 By WED...HERE'S WHY....
The No. 1 thing that made AAL dip last week was the situation in Iraq and Oil Price rise (caused by Iraq situation). Turns out the ISIS terrorists causing all the trouble will be contained shortly....you know that when both the US and IRAN hate the same group of terrorists, they are really bad and will BE SHUT DOWN. You can tell AAL: price moving up today cause ii looks like both IRAN and US may help shut ISIS down...and a plan to do so will emerge as the week progresses....and as news comes out the threat that made AAL dip lats week will evaporate and AAL will quickly bounce back to $43-$44 and begin it's climb back up to the $50's by mid July easy! Get in today while you will can. Get ready for Blast Off...Again!