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Rite Aid Corporation Message Board

ar.sigis 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 6, 2015 3:48 PM Member since: Oct 31, 2007
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  • I believe a large Hedge Fund and individuals are shorting RAD and intentionally depressing the stock. Small shareholders are powerless to counter the large Hedge Fund and individual shorts because of the intensity of selling, which causes lowering of the stock price and a fleeing of legitimate shareholders and buyers who cannot compete. This scenario occurs every week and is chasing away long as well as other shareholders.
    Hopefully, management will exert whatever means it has to counter these ruinous shorts and protect it's legal right to retain small and other legitimate investors.

  • If management does not do something about it, there will soon be no shareholders left and RAD will go further south. Shorting is a patent injustice to legitimate shareholders and should be abolished!

  • Rad's sales increased during 2Q15, but costs and expenses did too. It actually earned approximately $110M, but had about $90M in cost and expenses: (1) $33M to redeem 8% note, (2) EnvisionRX acquisition $40M,
    (3) Higher cap spending $17M....all one time expenses. Net earnings,$.02/sh .
    The above figures are rough estimates and are intended to demonstrate that RAD is NOT in financial difficulty.
    RAD is growing and good company and penalizing it's share price is entirely unwarranted. Rather, penalize short sellers who are entirely to blame for the selloff.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ar.sigis ar.sigis Sep 22, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    You are not only right, but great at explaining in simple and logical terms, why.

  • Rad spent between 90M and 100M as stated by RAD in "reasons for lower earnings". In addition it reported 2 cents earnings for the quarter, or a total of 11-12 cents/Q. If multiplied by 4 quarters, we have 44-48 cents.
    applying a P/E of 20, the stock is worth $8.80-$9.60/sh.
    RAD is a conservative company and will always guide conservatively.
    There is no reason for hammering the stock!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We do not have access to the exact figures, so my figures are rough estimates.
    During 2Q15, RAD'S reasons for lower earnings are as follows:
    1. 33.2M cost of redemption of 8% notes 33.2M
    2. Higher depreciation expense EnvisionRX acquisition 12.5M
    3. Acquisition expenses re EnvisionRX 30 M
    4. Higher capital spending 25 M
    5. Higher interest & transaction costs re EnvisionRX 12 M
    Total 112.7M
    112.M divided by 1.118B shares equals 10 cents/share of earnings used by RAD to settle the EnvisionRX
    deal. And, it reports additional earnings of 2 cents/share or a total of 12 cents/share for the quarter! Even if you alter the figures to some reasonable degree, there is no question, the greater portion of earnings were committed to the reasons for lower earnings stated by RAD.

    The foregoing figures are my ballpark estimates, but within reason. Accuracy can be provided by RAD alone.
    In short, RAD investors have unforgivingly penalized the company for doing an excellent job. JMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Management stated 5 reasons for lower earnings:
    1. 33.2M cost redemption 8% notes.
    2. Acquisition expense for EnvisionRX.
    3. Transaction costs re EnvisionRX.
    4. Higher depreciation costs re EnvisionRX.
    5. Higher Capital Spending and higher interest.

    The first three items are ONE TIME costs which I estimate are $48M-50M (your estimate could be more or less). The fourth item, higher depreciation costs re EnvisionRX, is common for all assets and is entirely overcome by the annual expected earnings from EnvisionRX of approximately $150-160M./yr.

    The last item of higher capital expenditures is one we all recognize as necessary to maintain and grow the business; but, it too is of a temporary nature and could be reduced or expanded as required.

    The last item, higher interest, will stay and be reduced over time until paid in full.

    Accordingly, all costs are dealt with and eliminated in this quarter except for depreciation and interest. As
    stated, depreciation is overcome by earnings generated by EnvisionRX and represents only a bookkeeping
    or accounting matter.

    In short, the only item representing a real cost payable on a regular annual basis is Interest; and, that too is entirely covered by the earnings of EnvisionRX.

    In conclusion, it is entirely erroneous to penalize RAD shares as was done today.

  • Reply to

    Q2/2016 Estimate

    by garrigan69 Sep 14, 2015 9:10 AM
    ar.sigis ar.sigis Sep 15, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    I agree with your EPS figure but would hesitatingly add .02 for EnvisageRX, plus .01 for
    Add'l cost savings, or a total of $.075. Best to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is no question , shorts are holding RAD down. Just look at the chart and it is evident, paid shorts are
    intentionally depressing RAD , on a 350 Dow day. What to do about it. Ideas.

  • Does anyone know why Martindale was given the new job of CEO of Stores. We all know he is good at any assignment, but could this be a special task. For example, discovering the reason for diminished profit at area stores.

  • RAD is in a period of accelerating sales GROWTH during the summer months (winter, coughs, colds and
    flu months are the best). Add the attractiveness of remodeled stores;, successful sales programs; a new, experienced CEO of Stores, and we can see the reason for RAD's recent rise.
    In MHO this growth will continue through August to $10.20 (which represents a rise averaging 5 cents/Tr./day).
    Beyond the month of August depends on RAD's Quarterly report on Sept. 17, which I expect will be excellent.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ar.sigis by ar.sigis Aug 3, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    Based on the July SSS figure of 2.016 sales (Better sales in Winter), the 52 week sales would be 26.208 B,
    which multiplied by a net profit of 1.85% (CVS and WBA range in 3% area), yields 48.5 cents, plus the limited earnings of EnvisonRX for approx. 2 months of 3 cents, equals a total of .51 cents. Multiplied by a PE of 20
    RAD is presently worth $10.20/share. RAD is a real bargain at $9.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ar.sigis by ar.sigis Jul 30, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Again, with strong buying of over 5M shares in the first 1 1/2 hours, RAD penetrated above 9 eight times and was immediately returned to 9 or less by specialized shorts. I believe the average RAD buyer will hold
    or buy upon the publication of a good SSS report, which we had today. There has got to be manipulation by RAD specialized short (s). Check the RAD chart for yourself.

  • ar.sigis by ar.sigis Jul 29, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    It's uncanny how RAD reached $8.90 seven times today, and dozens of times in earlier trading, only to be
    sold back below $8.90. I have watched this performance many times and am now convinced somebody
    is intentionally holding RAD stock down.

6.13-0.13(-2.08%)Oct 13 4:00 PMEDT