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arbiterofposts 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 27, 2014 8:33 PM Member since: Mar 28, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Sound Familiar isn't it?

    by macugen_rules Jun 27, 2014 6:01 PM
    arbiterofposts arbiterofposts Jun 27, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    I don't understand why you people are so angry with his comment. He was asked why ACHN went up 47% and ENTA went up only 4% on the news. His point was just stating actual fact that ACHN was coming off of low base after the price fell out of bed in September. It was very over sold while ENTA was at a high after seeing tens of millions in payments and the expectation of very substantial royalty income starting soon. I don't think that it was a dig on ACHN. It was just a factual answer. I'd like to see both ACHN and ENTA up five fold from their current price.

  • arbiterofposts arbiterofposts Jun 26, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    I don't know which estimate you are looking at but ENTA could receive a milestone payment in excess of $150 million. That would be a one timer. They will also receive about $50 million per year for each billion dollars of AbbVie sales of the drug. Estimates run around $2-$4 billion a year. They could also see revenue from other drugs in development and from advancing the Hep C drug. Expenses? Taxes? Divide by 20 million shares outstanding. Nine dollars is not out of line. The ongoing earnings, though not likely to be $9, are still very substantial and will grow as AbbVie phases into selling. I hope that this clears it up for you.

  • arbiterofposts arbiterofposts Jun 19, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    NO. Wrong. The royalty of 19% is for ENTA product in the cocktail. You have to multiple it by the percentage of Abt in that sale. Doing that works out to 5% of the total Abbvie sale. As an example, if the royalty were 90% and it was 10% of the cocktail it wouldn't mean that ENTA would receive 90% of the drug sale revenue, it would be 10% of 90% or 9%.

  • arbiterofposts arbiterofposts Jun 17, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    This is not pie in the sky all of this is pretty much set in stone. The AbbVie/Enanta drug is the next one out (very early 2015). The payments are almost guaranteed with many tens of millions already paid.

  • arbiterofposts arbiterofposts Jun 17, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    The street estimates for Abbvie sale of Hep C drug is around 20% of the market, which will be dominated by GILD. The AbbVie drug seems to be much the same for cure rate and they each have little side effects. People also look at how many pills are taken but that matters little. ENTA will receive a royalty payment of over $150 million from AbbVie when the drug is released later this year. They will then get a 5% royalty on all sales after that. It will be around $50,000,000 per billion in sales. ENTA only has 20 million shares outstanding so that will translate into very high per share earnings. Plus remember that this is a royalty with almost zero expenses for marketing and production.

  • Reply to

    Next catalyst

    by stocktechdoc Jun 13, 2014 3:30 PM
    arbiterofposts arbiterofposts Jun 16, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    If you work through the royalty and the percentage of the sale subject to the royalty it works out to 5% of AbbVie sales of their drug. It doesn't much matter the country to country discount. It's a function of sales. Analysts are looking for those sales in the $1-$3 billion range. So ENTA will get $50- $150 million a year with a probability of improving on that as improvements occur. Since the analysts have been wrong, on the low side, about the HepC drug demand, these numbers could be higher, but I doubt they'll be lower.

  • arbiterofposts by arbiterofposts Jun 9, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    The jockeying for position in the Hep C world has now started. Patents, price, and efficacy are attracting anyone interested in this arena. This IDIX deal certainly starts to price these companies. The $2 billion premium is basically for the HepC drug development, so that's the pricing for a stage 2, second tier, drug. AbbVie already knows what it will cost them, in payments and royalties, over the next several years. So when do they bite the bullet and act? After someone else makes an outlandish bid or now?

  • arbiterofposts arbiterofposts Jun 9, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Not quite, but close. I would assume that the premium was for the Hep C drug which would get you to around $100 a share. Some think that the patent position is also a factor. I'm interested in ENTA patents which were likely issued before the others.

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