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Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

arbtrdr 28 posts  |  Last Activity: May 20, 2016 2:03 AM Member since: Oct 16, 2000
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  • Reply to

    The Street

    by curl_rove May 19, 2016 10:56 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 20, 2016 2:03 AM Flag

    You try and find one!

  • Reply to

    Anyone else see this S 3 it was filed 5/10/16

    by strawjack55 May 10, 2016 4:31 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 20, 2016 1:53 AM Flag

    It replaces the shelf offering that was about to expire. It means they can sell the units. They sold about 1/2 of the $1B in uints from the last registration in 2014.

    Mktply - Which is better - a secondary at a 5% discount in one lump or an ATM at about a 3% discount for fees paid to brokers dribbled out? Seems about the same. Also many of the ATM units has been for those units paid out for reinvestment of distributions and employee benefits.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr May 19, 2016 1:52 PM Flag

    Really? Silly post! Since hedge funds don't do well with the tax issues on MLPs are you sure?

  • Reply to

    FLXN goes as a rocket and US ??

    by pironio68 May 18, 2016 10:31 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 19, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    Bill - Maybe our court jester will say I am you as well. Anyway I do not care. Thank you. Looking forward to a trip to Denver in early June and expect a sit down with MikeMac.

  • Reply to

    Could be perfect storm forAMPE to be aquired

    by biobuysell2020 May 16, 2016 5:39 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 17, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    The bigger question IF that current trial is positive is what is the number that AMPE is wiling to consider. IMO we will. Bill - agree that a 50% market share is folly. Agree much less than $5B but half that certainly possible.

  • In a sweeping blow to Wall Street investment giants, the U.S. Supreme Court today unanimously allowed lawsuits against "naked" short sellers in state courts to proceed.

    The high court ruled unanimously that shareholders are not confined to federal court when seeking recourse for securities violations. Granting “due deference to the important role of state courts,” the Court reinforced federalist principles while clarifying congressional intentions to limit the federal government’s role.

    The ruling, which could give a new boost to startups and small companies targeted by short sellers, showed a rare moment of ideological agreement in the court. Justice Elena Kagan authored the Court’s opinion, and Justice Clarence Thomas, joined by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, issued a concurrence.

    Had heard lots about the illegal naed shorting going on. Time for MM to give those staff attorneys some work and act.

  • Reply to

    EPD UNDERVALUED! HEDGE FUNDS ARE BUYING

    by jacksinv May 16, 2016 9:53 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 16, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    Care to share who?

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr May 16, 2016 3:03 AM Flag

    If you wanted loyalty you would hire your own salesmen. That of course would be folly as nobody would see them for one fairly obscure tratment. The sales people have sales reported and I am sure NAVB mgmt can see who is selling and who is not. There also certainly are targeted accounts and these often require time and effort on part of both NAVB and the salepeople to get things at least tried. Change is difficult and there are only a few large users in each market. Also the biggies want HUGE discounts. All takes time.

  • Reply to

    AMPE Trial completion getting close

    by biobuysell2020 May 15, 2016 11:05 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 16, 2016 2:58 AM Flag

    The 4th try should be a charm. With all of the procedures put into place this trial is an endpoint. We either then get Ampion sold with a manufacturing contract or have close to zero. In the wou=rld of pharma it could be either.

  • Reply to

    before endpoint PIVOT, our AMPIO where it can get?

    by pironio68 May 12, 2016 12:14 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 16, 2016 2:55 AM Flag

    With the market in sort of a holding pattern with the election coming up BW is simply stating he does not think AMPE will go up by a multiple of over 10 (a moonshot). What is wrong with that?

  • Reply to

    Warren Kelsey and crew are stuuuudds

    by valporiviera May 5, 2016 12:09 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 16, 2016 2:34 AM Flag

    I'm not great and you are insulting. The issues are big recapture when you sell of the distribution from the K-1. Tepper is buying not for the long run, but for a quick flip as he often does. MLPs pay distributions and most of those $$ are not profit, but instead return of capital. David is buying in as he feels ETP is undervalued - I agree. Let ETP get up maybe to $40 and he is gone, because the longer he holds the greater the tax bill because of recapture.

  • Reply to

    WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS STOCK?

    by rivers2win May 10, 2016 3:00 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 13, 2016 2:24 AM Flag

    You optimistic view is great, but not sure very realistic.

    Mktplyr has a valid point on yield. Historically MLPs have correlated with the 10/30 year bond yield. The problem is you cannot use that alone. For example there was over a .5 correlation to yield and interest rates in 1995 and it then dropped steadily until 2008 crisis. Since then the correlation has stayed in the .15 to .2 area. Thus if interest rates go up it will move the price of EPD as well, but only a little. A 6% rise in the 10 year - a bit hard to imagine for many years - would require EPD to change its yield by 1%. Even their current policy of retaining earnings could do this easily over time.

    Also remember that at some point when market conditions improve and processing really gets going for ethane - several large industrial users begin usage in 2017 and 2018 - then profits/cash flow will rise significantly and EPD will likely provide a "special distribution" in Q3 as tey did twice in the past. If EPD began increasing by say an extra .01 annually the difference to yield would move the price needle. Where people miss is an movement up in rates will not crush EPD and that because of institutional investors and all of the funds the histroical 6% yield number means little going forward. The average MLP yield should move along with sentiment to the sector and not anthing really rational. EPD could easily have a 5% yield in a couple years and just as likely a yield either greater or smaller. Ditto for the payout increases. A CAGR or 7% would not be unlikely.

  • Reply to

    Are Dividends Qualified?

    by huddlehat Apr 3, 2016 11:59 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 11, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    No. CPPL pays no dividend. It pays a distribution. Think you need to go and read up on Master Limited Partnerships! Also MLPs can create UBTI within an IRA.

  • Reply to

    Baytex - Another Dissappointing Day

    by axeph1999 May 6, 2016 11:48 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 10, 2016 8:15 AM Flag

    Also remember WCS is just as important as WTI for BTE. They need $40WCS and we are nowhere near there. It has not moved because simply put there is cheaper oil out there delivered to market when all transport and treatment added in.

  • Reply to

    Baytex - Another Dissappointing Day

    by axeph1999 May 6, 2016 11:48 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 10, 2016 8:13 AM Flag

    Keeping up with what? Agree your posts are negative and relate to price moves in a single day. Take a look at the bigger picture. Ask these questions Is BTE doing what it promised? Does BTE have sufficient capital veven in this market? Is management executing? Does the price movement for one or two days mean anything? Has oil moved sufficiently for BTE to be able to put its 50% of assets back into production?

    And last, do you really think the market moves are entirely rational? Many think BTE is all WCS heavy oil and many think they pump of of Ft. McMurray and their stuff is burned up. BTE is going to take $80 oil for WTI and some years to fully recover. Let us know then if you are pleased or disappointed. OK?

  • Reply to

    Earnings Out!

    by stkfather May 3, 2016 8:19 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 10, 2016 8:07 AM Flag

    Looking at daily movements in either WTI or BTE is a waste of time.

  • Reply to

    EPD is Putin's worst nightmare

    by heavyphil May 9, 2016 10:14 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 10, 2016 3:22 AM Flag

    Interesting, but truly wonder what EPD - transporting oil and NG and fractionating/shipping in USA and Canada - has to do with Russia? EPD cannot export any more ethane or propane. So no change there. EPD simply put has no more dockage and thus is not likely to export crude except the very light condensate stuff.

    Got to remember EPD was set up as a tortoise not a hare. VERY conservative balance sheet compared to all other MLPs. Why is EPD going sideways? That one is easy. Drilling and production in many of its service areas is flat and going to possibly decline. That would mean lower volumes and profits. This has hit almost all MLPs, not just EPD. EPD has insulated itself from many pricing issues but if production or counterparty risk rears their ugly heads EPD would be hurt. Until prices improve for both NG and oil EPD goes sideways.

    As to complaining EPD has not gone up as much recently as other MLPs. Yeah, I agree. It also did not go down as much. Want volatility go elsewhere. Stability is EPD and it has a long history of underpreforming and then quickly moving up before being flat for a couple years.

  • Reply to

    EPD in ROTH IRA quesiton

    by sravenzz May 9, 2016 3:46 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 10, 2016 3:12 AM Flag

    If the UBTI is over $1000 (possible and 100% not predictable) then your Roth will owe taxes and the custodian must file a return (the IRA pays again). There is no ETF that tracks EPD, but all CEFs have a large exposure to EPD. Simply put, unless this is your only investable money, why would you put a tax shelter (EPD) inside a tax shelter (the ROTH)?

  • Reply to

    Why is company with profit flat?

    by rivers2win May 5, 2016 4:43 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 9, 2016 9:02 AM Flag

    Looks like either you do not understand MLPs or the fact that EPD is not a NG stock. It does not drill or produce either oil or NG. Thus wondering about your comment.
    The issue with EPD is that it is HUGE. Thus hard to move the needle. An improvement in processing improves profits but not by the same amount as the little fish. As to is, wondering what 10 MLPs are doing a lot better? You certainly can slice and dice a time period, but EPD is one of a very few that has consistently raised payouts and had solid coverage. Also remember EPD alone has a model of retaining a coverage of 1.3X or better and thus not issuing as many more units. It is run like a utility. No exciting, but steady. When ethane again beocmes worth $$, EPD profits will sparkle and distributions increase.

  • Reply to

    Deal is Off

    by gdx100 May 5, 2016 9:37 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr May 9, 2016 3:47 AM Flag

    Nothing has changed. Both get their opinions. Only winners are lawyers. Losers are holders who pay the lawyers - US.

AMPE
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