Sounds exactly like what I was told by MWE. Tough getting producers to sign up unless they see it as a way to lock in their production where takeaway is an issue. With the discussion about other development and possible NGLs going to PA and north eventually one will happen but how long? 2016?
Hope u are correct but $20 is not likely. A .10 distribution is going till 2016/17 and little DCF increases going forward. Priced about $15-16 as it stands.
That is certainly step #1. The issue is when (I note that my thought was rates would begin to significantly rise about 2 years ago - LOL) interest rates rise then only those MLPs with a low cost of capital AND a coverage ratio north of 1.2X will be able to keep the unit price up. Investment grade both allows locking in of debt costs for 30 vs 10 , but reduces costs by about another 1%. That is sort of part #2 going down the road. No thoughts on interest rates now going forward except they do effect MLPs for investors and alternate investments.
Wonder if the shorts understand the ramifications of shorting a MLP. Probably not. Also leaving their stock in a margin account and using MLPs for margin are at risk for a "constructive" sale. Not good tax wise.
Whether we like it or not, market sentiment is largely based on consistency of earnings. For a MLP that is DCF being either close to or above analyst estimates . Some years ago EPD stumbled for 2 quarters when it began mostly an organic building project and the unit price stayed flat for about 9 months until they showed a resumption of steady increases in DCF and predicatability. MWE can certainly obtain that in 2015.
FWIW - I have sold no MWE and it is my 4th largest stock position and 2nd largest MLP holding.
Best to all and thanks again for the information. ARB
Have seen a bunch of four things on this board lately. #1 - SPAM - that one is easy. Please Please report every case and do not respond. #2 is cheerleading - There are posters everywhere who say MWE is going up and saying so without giving real reasons. #3 is negativism which is a form of SPAM. Saying MWE is headed either up or down I think is little better than SPAM if the poster gives no reasons. #4 is information. Money, CHRX and others provide a great source of inforamtion for all of us about what is happening with MWE and the Marcellus in general. Thank you for yuor contributions.
Last, there seems to be little constructive commentary on MWE going forward. MWE has disappointed the last couple of quarters and significant DCF growth on a per unit basis has been pushed back twice. DCF has grown, but unfortunately becuase of the drag of the planning, buildout and rampup process MWE has NOT had a meaningful increase in DCF. This is despite a huge increase in throughput. Thus the anticipated increase in CAGR for distributions has been put off along with any possibility of obtaining investment grade in the next couple of years. The buying out of EMG at a DCF neutral price and the same for the Marcellus acquisition will continue to slow DCF for 2014 but have opportunity for 2015 and beyond.
The result - we began a decline from $74 last november and are now back to where MWE was selling in May of 2013. Long term holders are definately happy with their profit and bright future (now further away) and those that bought in November are unhappy for the downturn.
Where are we likely to go from here: In the next two quarters probably not much of anywhere as the volume of new and in progress projects continues to be a huge part of EV. Remember there is an 18 month ramp up if everything goes well for new projects. Investors are also going to want to see predicatability in earnings.
Money - any thoughts on this? Certainly is contrary to what has been happening on other lines with producers not making committments.
Since both Liza and I have posted here and spoken via PM to many here we are probably more known than most CPAs.
Billee - You can also simply call the company or your broker for assistance.
Guess you already know that DCF is what we look at with MLPs. NOT earnings. If most MLPs have earnings it is unusual. Clueless.
WPZ had 1/3 of flow restored in a day. The rest was put into other lines by April 8th. Cost should be something in the $250K area unless producers go after WPZ for negligence whcih is unlikely. That would be about .0005 per share. The 10 foot deep hold in a field probably cannot collect for injuries. 10 cents a unit wuld be $48M, think you need to move a decimal point.
This accident happened a week ago!
Do you think that conservative BTEis going to buyout SOIGF after paying about $1.5B to buy Aurora? Not likely.
Wow - Scary advice. A revocable trust is not a legal entity. It makes no tax changes and everything is the same. The reporting is done by the person with the preorti ng ss#,.
Yup. Think lately we have more pipes that are failing to get committments than are being built. Neither WPZ/BWP or KMP/MWE going forward now with line out of Marcellus. Definately wonder how long till more rules with the RRs get put into place with the accidents that have happened. At home the SP main line goes through the center of downtown - 400K people within a couple miles. Accident rate per car mile is down, but loadings up some 9X.
There were two new CEFs buying today. About $1.5B in new money into the MLP arena. Thus big volume and almost everyone up significantly.
Money - Who made the units that were previously being purchased? Any idea? Kmow CAT got into this area some time ago and obviously gave incentives. Would think in reality if relaibility is similar and cost the same little difference to MWE who is the supplier. Do know from mining equipment that is about 90% CAT locally they do provide good service here in AZ.