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Magnum Hunter Resources Corpora Message Board

arbtrdr 121 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2015 11:01 AM Member since: Oct 16, 2000
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  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 26, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    MWE is showing volumes via a phone discussion sort of flat - as is the DCF - for 2015. NG pricing not likely to be good till late 2016. Volumes last quarter were excellent. Anything beyond the current quarter - who knows? Understand MHR inefficient, but at zero drilling for new wells it does not suggest volumes coming from them.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 26, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    B&W - Do you understand that NG prices have not collapsed? Oil yes, but MWE does not deal in oil, they process gas.

    Did you listen to the conference call? Semple was questioned as to how he got 10% increases for 2017 to 2020. his answer was by listening to his producers and their stated drilling plans. asked if there was anything concrete in commitments? He answered - NO. Thus the 10% increases for 2017 thru 2020 - remember 2020 is year 6 going out into the future, not year 5 - are based on sort of a combination of experience and gut feeling. We have already seen that drilling plans can change significantly in just a few months!

    I am not saying anything MWE said last quarter was bad and I was pleased with their 2015/16 guidance, but projecting out the comment made for the other years is a fool's game. Too many things can change between now and 6 years from now. It could totally change in the next 6 months! If NG does go down 50% and gets to under $2, then we would have drillers shut in and volumes crash along with new drilling stop. MHR already announced their drilling program for NEW wells in the Marcellus/Utica for 2015 - NONE - until things improve and those are wet gas wells, not oil. GHunter feels the service companies will cut costs in a similar manner that MWE mentioned for new plant construction.

    We received guidance for 2015 and 2016 that was down from prior guidance and a crystal ball number for the next 4 years. Hope it comes true. BUT, in the last 3 years MWE has pushed back and LOWERED GUIDANCE EVERY YEAR. FWIW, MWE is my 3rd largest stock holding. Have added about 20% to it in the last 6 months. Am now maxxed out.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 26, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    About 1/2 of that from renegotiation of construction contracts and 1/2 pushing back on plan dates. Nothing cut. No real reduction in plants.

  • Reply to

    Tax?

    by biloselhi9 Feb 25, 2015 12:59 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 25, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    bilo - This is a scary question to be asking now. You should already know you own a MLP and will get a K-1. To find out when go to K-1 support and there you can look up the K-1 date. They usually take about a week longer to arrive by mail. My K-1s have already started to arrive and the last usually come in about April 1st. WPZ should arrive by mail in early March.

  • Reply to

    Please answer

    by hd317 Feb 22, 2015 1:22 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 25, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    hd - MLPs do not pay a dividend! You need to read up on them at National Association of Publically Traded Partnerships. If you look at the yield of MLPs you can have a pretty good idea of the weak and strong ones. CMLP has definite problems with one of their producers -thus the high yield.

  • Reply to

    Numbers are in

    by nymarv10956 Feb 25, 2015 9:21 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 25, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    The projected increase is from $3.60 to $3.70 being paid out. Thus .01 per quarter. This is a reduction from .25 increase to .10 for 2015.

  • Reply to

    Numbers are in

    by nymarv10956 Feb 25, 2015 9:21 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 25, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    I would say they are good but guidance really not very exciting. The buyers in the market seem to disagree that pushing back bigger payouts till 2016 looks just fine. I would have hoped given the huge capex going into service on better guidance even with awful NGL pricing.

  • Reply to

    The NG picture as of this week

    by nymarv10956 Feb 20, 2015 9:59 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 23, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    Marv - I have started to clean up my IV board by putting several who post articles w/o reading them or argue about E&Ps and their accounting on ignore. Quite happy with the basics and certainly wish some would give some thoughts and sometimes be wrong instead of wanting to simply post. There is an interesting discussion now about Philadelphia and tankers sitting off shore. No vclue as to why but do wonder why a cargo of Nigerian oil priced $10 bbl higher than Canada Rose or Bakken via train is in the mix. This looks like Nigeria is trying to buy its way into the market again.

  • Reply to

    Earning are out comments

    by diecutter75 Feb 18, 2015 8:42 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 19, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    If ETP fails then ETE goes BK. Do you not understand that? ETE is slowly becoming a pure GP and ETP will get back some millions of units when it sells more of the SXL GP interest to ETE. ETP still has entire GP interest in SUN and SUN is going great guns.

    FWIW - I am long both ETE AND ETP.

  • Reply to

    Earning are out comments

    by diecutter75 Feb 18, 2015 8:42 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 19, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    All depends on their guidance and comments on NGLs NG going forward.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 17, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    The offer is .4066 shares of ETP plus 32 cents.

  • Reply to

    Paying Divi?

    by emac4909 Feb 13, 2015 4:54 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 17, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    RGP pays a distribution. Very different from a dividend. Suggest you read up on MLPs at National Association of Publically Traded Partnerships webiste.

  • Reply to

    Tax Question

    by cfattore Feb 12, 2015 9:40 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 16, 2015 11:35 PM Flag

    Absolutely correct. The big problem is many holders did their own taxes without a program and have no idea about a passive loss carryforward. Also some are dealing with the consequences of having a negative capital account basis and taxes due for a prior year or years!

  • Reply to

    Tax Question

    by cfattore Feb 12, 2015 9:40 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 16, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    Not correct. But, impossible to tell as you also have passive loss carryforwards that can offset at least a portion of the ordinary income. Need to look at last years return. Agree the cash should approximate your tax owed unless you have held for a long time. You probably need to read up on MLPs, though it is a bit late. KMP provided tax DEFERRAL, not exemption.

  • Reply to

    2015 dividend growth?

    by cbthemillion Feb 16, 2015 11:06 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 16, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    One could certainly be hopeful, but interest rate pressures probably come into play requiring higher yields if and when rates go up. KMI should have a positive correlation of about .25 if past history is correct.

  • Reply to

    Latest CC from a mid stream company NGLS

    by nymarv10956 Feb 13, 2015 8:33 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 16, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    What has always been interesting to me is that while a lot of MLPs have a history of climbing steadily, EPD has instead climbed a bunch in 6-9 months and then been pretty flat for the next year or two. I understand the second time this happened when they slowed their distribution and went to organic buildouts instead of acquisition as a general model but the picture has continued. No idea why.

    MWE has definitely had some lumps in not meeting guidance and now cutting it. The good news to me is if the simply slow down a bit they can drop some .30-.40 per unit to the bottom line. MWE and most of midstream IMO is in a hold and wait till 2017 or maybe late 2016. Got to have industrial demand for Ethane and that happens about then to put things in balance with lots more demand. Guess i'm happy to wait it out with both companies.

  • Reply to

    Latest CC from a mid stream company NGLS

    by nymarv10956 Feb 13, 2015 8:33 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 16, 2015 8:42 AM Flag

    EPD down about 10% from its high. MWE has moved still up but still down more than that. The issue is MWE only really a G&P. NO take or pay on pipes. Also MWE has given little info on its contract detials as to what happens if driller/producers fall short on volumes. With NGLs worth very little and ethane also not worth processing MWE has a very slow 2015/16 if the NGLS commetns were correct and I suspect they are. Producers appear that they will continue to dril but cut back and not connect (about 65% of well cost) and this wil leave MWE a bit high and dry until 2017.

    The market pendulum moves way too far in both directions. Producers went down as if getting ready for BK. Many but 2/3 or more. Yes they are up but VNR went from $33 to 12 - so is $18 good? Still down almost 50%. SAlso VNR had/has issues. Price went no where from 2011 thru 2014. Not good. FYI - do not own VNR - never have. VNR obviously healthier at $53 WTI than at $43 and dropping. NG prices are also continuing to drop and until we export LNG have small chance of recovery.

    MWE needs NGLs up to $1 and $3+ NG to prosper. Until then we continue to have distribution move slowly up \, but unit price stagnate. Combine that with Congreee looking at limits for step up on death and you have a not so good next 2 years for MLPs.

  • Reply to

    out of sync

    by merrickjaruna Feb 13, 2015 2:37 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 16, 2015 8:28 AM Flag

    My vote no as well, but probably good deal as we get rid of the Cohens! There is enough institutional owners to get approval.

    TPP - THe WPZ deal actually good for WPZ. The problem was WPZ had no growth or real hope of distribution increases. They have not covered and were not going to even wityh Geismer with NGL prices in the dumper. Merger provides for real increases going forward. ACMP is down because of the merger as much as WPZ (old and new). Not happy but think future now looks better.

  • Reply to

    ETP acquisition and JPEP

    by ivestors Feb 14, 2015 10:59 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 15, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    SPAMMER. Report and ignore.

  • Reply to

    Latest CC from a mid stream company NGLS

    by nymarv10956 Feb 13, 2015 8:33 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Feb 15, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    He indicated they are seeing significant slowing by producers both in drilling and especially in completions. Worst in the Bakken and little change in Permian. Suggested NGL pricing low thru 2016. As Marv said very good and I think honset presentation. Also note Q4 results included some $10M in take or pay payments. They get these annually.

MHR-PC
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