The only one I can answer is Mexico will allow drilling south of the Rio Grande. Their Congress is about to pass legislation to make exactly that legal. Discussions with govt people here say it will pass.
happy 4th. Arb
mrtply - You and I often disagree but with Steve it is time for ignore. Saying MLPL is right for retirees is crazy as most retirees use not only their income from investments but the principal over time. One of the reasons I hang out mostly at the IV board.
OK. I agree. Now the reality instead of just hype. Giving EPD a couple of special distribution increases as indicated as possible you mave YE distribution run rates of about $3 fior 2014, $3.16 for 2015, $3.36 for 2016. I note this is higher than most every brokerage estimate by a bit. Given the interest rates rising a bit we should be somewhere in the 4.5% area by the end of 2016 for a yield giving a unit price in the $75 to $89 area. We do get to $100 but only after a few years. The recent run up is typical for EPD. Runup followed by a year or slow of flat unit prices. Could EPD slow priojects and thus choose to distribute more $$? Absolutely. If they increased at 8% CAGR from today they would go to $3.60 in Q1 of 2017 and that "might" get them to $100 if interest rates do not move too much.
Hard for a $90B company to move the needle very fast. I'm personally happy for distributions going up in the 6.5% area a year and unit prices moving about the same. 13% a year is more than most companies.
What undisclosed info did silk share? Everything was already disclosed. If AMPE has a buyout offer it must be dsclosed to the BOD. Discussions about an offer do not. The current trial if I remember correctly was actually suggested in a meeting with the FDA. Not pumping and pumping here is worthless. Too many bozos posting.
Bob - hope their information makes sense. MLPs are a bet on the USA needing additional energy infrastucture. They pay out free cash flow. Since they oswn things like pipelines they have lots of non cash accounting items like depreciation, but since a pipeline can last 100 years if maintained and there is a barrier to entry their assets actually appreicate.
Bar-Or wants to start another company. Would guess Macaluso would too. Both have enough money already. They are doing this because they care and like the game.
Steve - Got a messaghe about your post. Would like to know how MLPL maintained its distribution in 2008/09 when it was only started in July of 2010?
How long do you want to hold either company? Understnad if ETP or RGP have any problems or stop growing rapidly then ETEs ability to increase their distribution would fall. Remember ETE mostly gets $$ from ETP, RGP and SXL. ETE is leveraged and thus subject to that risk. FWIW I own ETP, RGP and ETE. how risk tolerant are you. Any bad news and ETP goes down 3 or 4 points, but ETE goes down about 10.
Suggest you look at a broker analysis that shows distributions with anticipated increases over the next 3 years along with the current yield. There is about a .8 correlation with the yield the yield the lower the anticipated predicted increase in distribution. Of course the lower the yield (like ETE) the higher the expected increase.
MS came out with a sector report this afternoon. Companies that are at least 1/2 standard de viation above the yield/distribution curve are a bit surprising with 5 companies: ATLS, WGP, CMLP, APL, and WPZ. Companies below are EPD (they have a differerent distribution policy from every other MLP) MPLX and VLP. ETE is exactly on the median line. This is because the yield today is so low at 2.51% it will take many years (all things equal) to raise its distribution to that of ETP (rate currently 6.51%. The increases expected using the average from 4 brokers is a 25% CAGR for ETE and 6% for ETP.
What does this mean if correct? YE 2016 ETE distribution run rate of $2.81 and ETP of $4.46. Thus ETE disttribution grows faster and in 3 years is about 40% less, If you do this in about 2022 ETE should pay the same distribution as ETP.
Marv - EPD stated a couple years ago the BOD would review their distribution rate once a year in I think either July or October. With the new pipeline project I would not think they would go for this quarter but a special to be paid in November would raise the YE rate to $3.00. Two things said by the BOD: #1 they would only raise in even penny amounts and #2 would examine for increases once a year.
Interesting that UBS came out on the 26th with a report showing no secondary offerings being needed thru YE 2016 and distribution increases of .013 this Q and .015 for eaxh of the next two quarters. If the cash needs for projects drops I guess this makes sense but the increase would more likely be a special raise. I would think distributions going forward of .72 Q2, .74 Q3, .75 Q4, with a .02 bump in Q3 of 2015 would be most likely given the current EPD numbers.
And as to the subject at hand - NS owns much of the dock leases for Corpus. At some point Houston Ship canal can handle no more ships. Got to move export volumes elsewhere. Lots of choices that you can probably name better than me.
they cannot totally bypass APL as APL has the collection and gathering for most. Time will tell how things go but would think positive for both producers - higher prices received - and MLPs with higher volumes. there is little incentive for producers to build their own distillation otwers because of the cost including everything else and ther need for pipelines downstream.
Who cares as splits add absolutely no value. With spreads worth .01 and commissions as little #$%$ make no difference for 1 share at $80 or 2 at $40.
AMPE has said several times the entire report would only be released in a journal or similar to give maximum push to the results. The is Macaluso and his ideas. Optina is going to completion, just a bit strange - again.
EPD only uses storage for their own account. They are not in the storage for rent business. The winners here are those with dockage. NS for one has lots of space in Corpus. EPD has a headstart on the production of condensates. NGLS and others will benefit.
Super - If you were looking for a site visit you need to think some more. Reports are put together using a computer matrix and anecdotal data gathered during a phone conversation. There is no attempt at a lid on a price. Targets are simply that and would not include any Medicare reimbursements etc. because AMPE does not have an approved drug to apply for reimbursement. Personally am simply pleased there is a second report (Aegis means nothing in ther investing world) as this gives validation to Citi.
As Grindle said $14 is a HUGE number north of $8. And a move to that area would put a bunch of pressure on the shorts. The game is still the same - get one of ther drugs to market with enough penetration to provide positive cash flow before they burn through the existing cash. Other bios actuially have approved drugs/procedures and are in the same situation. IMO AMPE sells off something and eventually uses that cvash to guarantee they get to market for Ampion or Optina.
Grindle/Bill - Agree 100%. Optina is nice but definately a little brother. As to finding patients - seems they simply did not look really hard. It takes $$ to find and search out patients and AMPE did not put that in their budget. Also for those that are going blind being in a study where #1 you might get a placebo and #2 a drug that does not work seem like something where I would go to a treatment that was at least working a bit. The stoppage does not prove anything but it is indeed strange.