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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

arbtrdr 106 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Oct 16, 2000
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  • Reply to

    oil and what it means

    by nymarv10956 Nov 26, 2014 8:42 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 30, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    Can I suggest the political diatribes go elsewhere? PLEASE. ARB

    FWIW - Off line in the Caribbean last week. Will figure out what happened when i get home late tonight. Expect oil went in the dumper! Also truly think that production and processing will not decrease in the Marcellus. higher cost Bakken and Permian a different issue. BTE is producing oil in the EF at $40bbl. Unless price stays down for 2+ years not a lasting issue. Some producers like venezuela and Russia in a hiue hurt well before then.

    Gonna be interesting.

  • Reply to

    strong buy

    by eadthree Nov 14, 2014 8:40 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 14, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    What is the benefit of a split? Since you can now buy MWE 1 unit at a time does letting you buy 2 units each worth about $36 with a distribution 1/2 the prior payout get you anything?

  • Reply to

    Question for Board?

    by nymarv10956 Nov 13, 2014 10:51 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 14, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Marv - The two Canadian juniors I own ship most of their heavy oil via rail. The rail companies fill the cars with dilutent on the backhaul. Would suggest that the producers that are sending condensate north are those closest to Alberta or are on a rail line. Would think little benefit for the midstream MLPs like MWE who process for fixed fee. In OK/TX much processing doene for POP and KW. Some opportunity there. That said would guess unless we get enough takeaway going East and South to put the rails out of business that the railroads will be the beneficiary of hauling dilutent. Alberta is a long way from PA.

    BPL discussed their rail to barge transport for Irving refinery in NBrunswick. Noted dilutent being carried as backhaul by RR. Sort of a joke in the call when they said the dilutent had the inside of the cars clean by the time they got back to Alberta. Sure hope one of those trains never wrecks!

    ARB

  • Reply to

    capital gains

    by mrm91606 Nov 6, 2014 8:19 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 13, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    MRM - Suggest you need some education. Go to National Association of Publically Traded Partnerships and read their primer called MLPs 101. When you sell you will pay taxes on recapture of depreciation AND any capital gains. Too complicated to answer here. Your basis began on your initial purchase and does not reset. Take a lok at your K-1 for 2013 and it can help you understand.

  • Reply to

    INVESTOR RELATIONS

    by govpur Oct 21, 2014 3:49 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 13, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    Govpur - What do you want? TLLP already said they will buy out the few shares of QEP they will not own after the buyout of QEP is complete. 12M units is nothing. As to responsibility of QEPM - this is a MLP and as a limited partner you have few if any rights. Sorry.

  • Reply to

    Buying opportunity?

    by at78rpm Oct 13, 2014 8:47 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 11, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    The yield ultimately puts a floor on NGLS. Would guess that floor effectively is there or close to being there. This time of year brings institutional changes in portfolios. If I did not already own this would be a buying point and not a selling point. Distrobution is secure and company solid. Lower oil prices do not really effect NGLS.

  • Reply to

    CS taking this down for their clients

    by winplaceshow999 Nov 11, 2014 11:19 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 11, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    You comment makes no sense. There obviously was an institutional seller. As to CS - it just makes their outpreform stronger.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 7, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    There are other targets that would be more friendly or actually welcome a buyout with a good premium. Remember the hostile offer some years ago. MWE beat them back so it never got to a vote. Do agree MWE would be in KMI sights along with AM, NGLS, and a bunch of others in the midstream area. 2016 will be interesting as both KMI and EPD will have dis=gested their latest buys!

  • Reply to

    oops, they missed expectations

    by sbrown101750 Nov 5, 2014 7:26 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 7, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    Actually they did not miss expectations. They made their DCF number. Revenue and EPS mean absolutely NOTHING for a MLP. Guess what - $63 when earnigs out and $65.50 now. Daily moves meaningless too. MLPs up today, neutral on the 6th and down on the 5th.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 6, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    MWE has always elected not to put up the big dollars to own the pipes except to connect the dots on his processing plants or a major takeaway pipe. MWE organized the line to sarnia and got SXL to build it. The Y grade line will be built. I would guess that MWE will end up owning a very small percentage and the ancillary stuff to get the product to the line. Do you remember that MWE had right of refusal for 10% of Midwest Express and they walked away. MWE is only concerned with processing and getting that weird balance of committments and takeaway to allow them to control the Marcellus and Utica.

  • Reply to

    TAX LAW CHANGES?

    by wslafer Nov 6, 2014 4:55 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 6, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    This has been discussed in thousands of posts. Canada changed because their banks and airlines were moving to change! Canada stopped RoyalyTrusts. It still has REITs. There is no real benefit to the US Govt in changing because of the taxes it recoups on the sale. A MLP is a tax shelter - it delays paying taxes. It does not eliminate them.

    To answer you question - Yes. It is possible. It is also possible they would rasie the tax rate on earned income to 70% and give everyone with children in college a $50K tax credit. but not likely.

  • Reply to

    INVESTOR RELATIONS

    by govpur Oct 21, 2014 3:49 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 6, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    TLLP has already stated after it acquires QEP it will acquire the 12M shares of QEP. Was that not clear to you?

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 6, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    The issue is still the same. Producers do not want to commit to long term projects, but they want takeaway. MWE quite happy to wait for a while as they have lots (over 20) of processing plants to build thru 2016. Also MWE would take little owenership min the Y grade line anyway because they want to process - not own pipes. Mariner was set up by MWE and sort of given to Sunoco as a way to market NGLs for MSWE pro\ducers and get drilling up.

  • Reply to

    When is MWE a buy?

    by kemosabereturns Nov 6, 2014 12:42 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 6, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    MWE is NOT connected to the price of oil. Anything connected to energy is toxic right now. Would listen to the conference call. IF the numbers discussed there are correct and MWE rasies distribution next year to .02 per wquarter it will be too late.

    Rememmber market is NOT rational. MMP is down and its profits go UP when price of oil falls! Go figure.

  • Reply to

    3rd quarter report Out After Market Closing

    by buyandwin Nov 5, 2014 4:50 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 5, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    What am I missing? This quarter at $195M DCF is great. The business has little seasonality which is great. The DCF guidance for 2015 at $800-880M is great. Oops - maybe not!

    MWE will need to issue about 25M units for the capital program and the next tranche of EMG units. Those units will require about $90M in distributions.

    Thus two things: 4 X $195M is $780M and that is only a tiny bit above the current DCF run rate. Huh? Second - If we finish at $690M this year and a 10 cent raise in distributions costs $19.5M and the new units cost $90M then how do we get to over a 5% CAGR rate in 2015? To get a .92 average distribution next year will require about $825M. Well below the 1.1X coverage stated as desired and needed for InvGrade. And that means only .01 per quarter in all of 2015 and .Q2 in Q4. Yes I understand my numbers show all units outstanding all year but the basic math still holds.

    The math simply does not work. Either MWE is hugely sandbagging their guidance or???

    Great we got a couple more projects on line, but the number in line is now up to 21! Capex is holding at $2B +/- a year.

    Any CONSTRUCTIVE comments? Please note these numbers put together quickly sort of back of the envelope

  • Reply to

    Today

    by nymarv10956 Nov 4, 2014 6:00 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 5, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    Marv - Russia exports about 5M bbl a day in crude and oil products. They are number two in exports right after the Saudis. I absolutely love your typo. The "rouble" is indeed rubble right now! I visited there 3 times in last twn years. The people are unhappy and sullen. Nothing has really changed.

    It is interesting that while oil prices are down NG is not and the NG midstreamers are getting hurt along with everyone else..

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Nov 5, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Because ETP has better relationships on selling the product downstream and the ETP line had a better route. Also a track record of getting projects done on time and budget

  • Reply to

    split

    by gqgerb Oct 30, 2014 4:13 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Oct 31, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    portugal - Agree except the dividend is not going to recover. It was not cut but simply adjusted to be exactly the same as before. You do not have more money to reinvest except the "regular increase that happens each quarter. You have .005 per share additional $$ on twice as many shares.

  • Reply to

    EPD's conference call

    by debgideon Oct 30, 2014 4:19 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Oct 30, 2014 10:50 PM Flag

    What benefit would there be for EPD to go LLC? Kinder did it to eliminate 3 MLPs and the GP drag. EPD already got rid of 2 MLPs (years ago) and bought out its GP. Nothing to gain for EPD. As for other MLPs - if Kimnder buys them out the tax consequences for the acquired companies could be ugly and that would require extra compensation. Kinder forced the merger down the LP owners by putting in a $311 fee if the merger is voted down. The reason I have never owned KMP.

  • Reply to

    WPZ scam

    by joebo246 Oct 27, 2014 4:21 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Oct 30, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Sorry you feel that way. The problem with WPZ is they have not come close to covering their distribution in a couple years. Geismer bcertainly has not helped and insurance is now protesting as WPZ made the decision to upgrade and this complicates things. It is not a tax gimmick but put it back to one GP and one MLP structure. Distributions going froward with WPZ were going to be flat to up 5%. New structure provides real coverage and 10% plus distribution growth.

    PS - Isn't a MLP a bit of a tax gimmick itself by definition? Just a thought. Understand you do not like having a bit less is payouts for 2015 but the bigger picture says those of us that bought WPZ before Geismer went down made a mistake.

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