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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

arbtrdr 123 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 4, 2015 5:58 PM Member since: Oct 16, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Next div payout

    by foomooboo Jan 7, 2015 4:05 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Jan 12, 2015 10:32 PM Flag

    Wow! That is scary because nothing declared yet.

    If the posters above really cared they could look at the historical payout dates that range from January 27th to 29th for the last 3 years.

  • Reply to

    Who to blame.

    by fountain123_45 Jan 10, 2015 9:31 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Jan 11, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    chrx - If we start letting political discussion happen here then this board is going to die. You have great information, but direct political discussion - take it elsewhere.

  • Reply to

    Blue and Red states

    by fountain123_45 Jan 11, 2015 12:22 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Jan 11, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    I find your comment insulting. Education levels in Silicon valley are among the4 highest in the World. Bad example that has no place here.

  • Reply to

    Risk vs reward

    by nymarv10956 Dec 23, 2014 1:08 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 28, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    Marv - Happy New Year. Not sure what normalcy is. The economic and political turmoil has only just started. Canada is 27% of GDP related to oil and gas. Their tax revenues are dropping by some 20% nationally and over 1/2 in Alberta. Absolutely nothing canada can do. really realy tired of people quoting the 'cost" needed by various countries to run their government. What they need has little correlation between the "need" and the reality of today. I cannot tell you where we are going forward. I do know it is too late to sell. I own small pieces of 34 producers (only 1 MLP, 1 major and two Canada juniors). I am actually buying the small producers where they are cash neutral with $50 oil. The midstreamers are just fine till mid 2016 if things do not change as volumes will increase at last until then and LNG and NGL exports shjould kick in then. No idea on oil, but some countries will not produce as they were marginal areas and exploration will fall for riskier (either political or new exploration risk). Should guess we are near the bottom and will bump for a while on oil.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 27, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    The answer is for at least a couple years - NONE. For example Harold Hamm - Chesapeake announced 2015 capex reduced by 50%. They also announced production to be UP another 20%. No remember most contracts have demand charges not related to usage for both oil and NG. Producers certainly want to keep their very best crews together and there are both production contracts and leases to be kept. Unless prices stay way down until say 2017 - no real issues for pipelines.

    Most of all is demand falling? NO. Demand for both oil and NG in the USA is up. Certainly part is exports, but pipes, G&P and fractionation are just fine for the medium term.

  • Reply to

    Which midstreams to avoid or sell?

    by clrodrick Nov 29, 2014 6:39 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 27, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    If you are a driller you also need to try to keep your crews together.

  • Reply to

    Early Xmas Gift

    by budfoxtrading Dec 1, 2014 10:08 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 23, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    QEPM is a screaming deal. Will be interesting to find out the final buyout deal.

  • Reply to

    The CEO of Ampio said wha

    by ri66 Dec 22, 2014 2:16 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 22, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    Actually I have spoken to Mike as well. Find him in and with a bit of time and he will speak with ANY investor!

  • Reply to

    Wow,we're getting clobbered

    by divikmi Dec 22, 2014 9:42 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 22, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Wow - we are down .22. If this bothers you suggest tyou definately need to invest elsewhere!

  • Reply to

    Which midstreams to avoid or sell?

    by clrodrick Nov 29, 2014 6:39 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 22, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    The problem with the Bakken is being far from industrial users and difficult weatehr for about 5 months a year. There are 5 pipes now under construction so rail will decrease. Bakken wels have high decline rate so volumes there will be interesting. As to Permian - Old oil basin with lots of infrastucture and pipes in place for years. Why pay $10bbl to ship wg]hen pipes are only about $3 from there.

  • Reply to

    APL May Opt Out

    by d_neely Dec 13, 2014 10:46 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 22, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    $122M breakup fee plus expenses - Definately not good.

  • Reply to

    North Sea Producers Hurting

    by skinz4q Dec 20, 2014 11:01 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 22, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    We are exporting mostly refined products at about a 1M bbl/day rate. Propane number one but also very large amounts of gasoline. The supply is decreasing and actually only about 2M bbl/day out of balance. Several of the smaller producers are cutting back and the North Sea production is falling as it is an older and costlier field to get new production. OPEC is only about 35-40% of production. There are indeed winners and that would include everyone in the USA who does not own directly of indirectly energy stocks. we are indeed consumers. guess the good news is americans are beginning for the last couple years to save a bit more $$. If interst rates moved up they might save even more. Is truly sad that the average family in their 60s has some 50K saved for retirement. Won't work very well.

    You are correct that investors in industry using enery will be the big recepient of $$ in the short run. Wonder how long this imbalance will last? At least of the world economy got going demands for Ethane and the ret would rise and EPD and others would make lots more $$.

  • Reply to

    North Sea Producers Hurting

    by skinz4q Dec 20, 2014 11:01 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 21, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    US oil is getting sold in the world market! The very light oil is being sold. Also is there any difference in our exporting oil and cutting our imports? We are not buying some 5M bbl/day we bought from Venezuea]la and middle east just a few years ago! Would love to know - Any difference on the end effect?

  • Reply to

    what is wrong with this one

    by luckkels Dec 19, 2014 11:25 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 21, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    Try not looking at just one day. Single day movements tell you little. Over the last 2 months oil and gas down 10-20% and some cases more!

  • Reply to

    Analysts and what they do and mean

    by nymarv10956 Dec 18, 2014 11:30 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 19, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    Marv - Lately the ansalyst numbers are pure nonsense. Agree in more stable times they make sense, but the E&P numers in last month silly. An great example in BBEP who was moved a couple days ago from an outpreform and a target in the $20s to a market preform and an $8 target. A day late and MANY dollars short. The problem with the headlines is similar to news reporting. The targets and ratings are a combination of computer generated and a ratio fixed by the broker on how many one can have in each category. The key as Marv alluded to is taking the time to listen to the cvalls, participate in asking questions to the company and reading the reports - there often IS good information in the report even if the target price is silly.

  • Northeast spot prices drop through the week. Due to colder weather and continued system maintenance at the start of the report week, prices at Algonquin Citygate (serving Boston), and Tennessee Zone 6 200L (Connecticut/New England) were elevated last Wednesday at just under $10/MMBtu. As temperatures moderated and maintenance was completed, prices at these locations fell through the week by approximately 50%, closing yesterday at $5.02/MMBtu and $4.82/MMBtu respectively. Prices at Transco Zone 6 NY (servicing New York City), also decreased after starting the week at an elevated level, falling 17% Wednesday-to-Wednesday.

  • Reply to

    Does anyone know

    by bigrgub Dec 19, 2014 10:40 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 19, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    You could look at their last presentation. Would guess little or nothing after 2015.

  • Reply to

    Repeat of an Old Scam

    by ed_brady Dec 16, 2014 10:28 AM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 19, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    ed - You have completely missed what is going on. The Saudis want Iran and Russia basically to get the $^% out of everybody elses business. The Saudis CAN effect the price but Russia is actually the biggest exporter! As to who is getting hurt - the intended targets of Russia and Iran probably the most along with Venezuela, Columbia, Mexico, Canada, nigeria, brazil, Argentina and the countries south of Russia.

    The "surplus" today is some 2M bbl/day. The world can store some 900M bbls. So an oversupply will indeed force down production. The cutrrent situation wil end up cutting some 2M bbl/day from some marginal places. Very little of that in the USA.

  • Reply to

    Now until rest of year

    by nymarv10956 Dec 16, 2014 1:22 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 17, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    I am pretty sure EPD quietly paid up and buried the $$ in a 10Q. That fiasco is behind them. EPD did not make any attempt at making amends in trying to deep six the ETP/Phillips Bakken oil pipe. Think that would will continue to fester.

  • Reply to

    Sold Today

    by blackcrow78888 Dec 15, 2014 3:19 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 17, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    Correct. Also EPD usually (except in a panic situation) has little correlation to oil prices. It does effectively trade of NG pricing and has msade a real niche it exports which are effected by neither. Understand taking profits. The first couple weeks in December also usually hit by lots of mom and pop sellers who bought a couple years ago and then got a surprise - a K-1. Are selling onw so not to receive in 2015. No idea how many for EPD but MWE some years ago (about 1/20 of market cap then) had over 10,000 individuals sell in December!

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