Two reasons -
Firat this is not really the place to tour another stock.
Second, MLPL gets its dividend by leveraging. Thus if the Alerian index goes down 5% then MLPL goes down by about twice that amount. Sure there is the upside but MLPL will be a wild ride. One thing you have absolutely wrong - high yield and safety. If there is a high yield in an index fund there is also high risk.
Money - Understand the jobs for PA area if a cracker built there but does MWE really care? They have moved forward with several takeaway projects of their own over the years and repeatedly stated they wanted to gather and process and not get into the transport business except to create demand for the NGLs it processes. Whether the ethane goes to Texas, Canada, or Europe should not matter to MWE - only that it has a place to go and has a profitable place to go and maximize customer growth.
The last bunch of 4M units did indeed join in on July 1st (I think). MWE has to get the Debt ratio down to at least 3.8 to 1 from the current 4.1 or a bit higher. Disagree that the other 3 years worth of units need to be absorbed - only need is for the ratio of new projects to fall a bit as a percentage of enterprise value. This will put the EBITDA up - almost all new projects are fixed fee with guarantees - and thus lower the ratio as eeded. My guess is still for first half 2014.
Would thin we almost know today the results and what will be said at the ccall. Doubt any surprises in this and the upcoming cou-ple of calls. Lots of projects going on line and the $$ from those is fairly easily calculated. In this case any real news would most likely indicate a problem. Hope we continue straight and steady for a few quarters.
Well, Zertane is a sideshow. AMPE has little interest here and thus the slow movement. You cannot direct your efforts and energy in too many places at once. Ampoin is the mover and you will hear nothing from either side until after the FDA meeting. AMPE because they need to keep silent and the other side because they have been exiting.
The deal gets approved. You forget with a MLP that the GP holds most of the voting power. Again yoru position makes no sense. Driving down the price of RGP drives down the price of PVR..
Chrx - The press release was convoluted as usual. They increased by .01 again. They .04 is the YOY increase. Exactly as most expceted in order to get the metrics for investment grade sometime next year.
Great analysis. Agree wih everything except there is no issue with side effects as the FDA has already approved Ampion in another form/dose for other conditions. The safty issue is what derails more applications and should fast tract this one as efficacy is the only issue.
How do you takeover a company where 24% is held by officers and another 15% buy a few individuals close to the company. Add in another 14% where the stock is restricted and a takeover that is hostile is not possible.
Right now AMPE is fairly valued as they still have nothing really producing income. As to a top notch investment banker - AMPE right now should not give a damn. They have enough money for another year. In that time we will hear re FDA approval for Ampion and probably Optina as well. Both of those then make things interesting and approval of either for final marketing would make a short position impossible.
Think we probably actually get .015 this quarter. The ramp up of volumes on the new projects was greater than expected and the fixed fee % is now over 60%. I personally do not care. The big thing is to the the EBITDA coverage ration back under 3.8X so we can get investment grade and change to longer term debt.
Discussing estimates of brokers for distributionsw for 2015 and beyond is a fools game. Will be back online as home for a few weeks.
mktply - You did not understand. issi was quite clear. He said if LINE was dfown .04 on an afterhours trade of 43 units (total value of trade about $1200) then the enterprise value of EPD should drop by about 4% or $1,500,000,000. Is that clearer? There is an obvious correlation of ZERO according to my figures.
What is interesting is there seem to be a lot of new posters who have limited command on English as appear to be posting using a translation program. Thus their posting and conclusions are a bit muddled! LOL.
Will be interesting. What is the date for the FDA meeting. Have been travelling with little internet access. The other thing will be the next short number. We are holding over $8 which makes the shorts position ever more expensive as you know if you would try to borrow any shares. With the test results and no need for safety tests approval is likely. Was AMPE telling us something with the production contract? Personally what will be most telling to me is how the marketing is going to go. AMPE needs a marketing agent or partner to make it really happen.
Who cares about your predictions. I bought AMPE when it was about $4 and again under $3, but that does not make me any better or worse than you. Let's try something new - the facts. For right now that means awaiting more news that hopefully wil be good.
Since you have trouble writing in English and probably do not own EPD it seems not worth my time to give you a reply. I will instead ask you if the other similar MLPs moved differently, if the overall market moved differently, and if you noticed that EPD moved up about $2 when the market moved upward. They gave another distribution raise and should have a reasonable quarter as several projects went on line. Suggest you need to look at more than 1 month!
Who cares. Watching trading for a day or even a week when there is no company news is really truly pointless. It simply meant someone wanted to sell before the close.
Yup. We have a steady move up and now a contract for that needed to produce Ampion. I continue long and await the next news. ARB
Two things. The payout ratio to DCF is a tad under 1X and steadily improving. Your numbers are bobus. As to borrowing costs going up there is no real worry as many of its projects have a rate component tied to a cost inflator. Also ETP earns well over an average of 10% on its projects. Agree ETP not for you as you have no clue about MLPs. ARB
Why? No reasons at all. Got to remember overall market down almost 10%. Looking at short term worthless. What will be interesting is if we get a special this quarter