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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

arbtrdr 124 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2015 11:01 AM Member since: Oct 16, 2000
  • Reply to

    Ride to $20/share

    by fishinanddreaming Nov 5, 2014 10:34 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 3, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    Zachs has absolutely no clue on what a MLP even is! No opinion as to MEP being a good MLP for investment, but Zach knows less than my pet cat.

  • arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 1, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    Since transportation is a small percentage of the producer costs any negotiation would be unlikely until the end of an existing contract. What is likely is letting firm commitements slide when other producers want to take that space. Some years ago NBP had volume issues for one year because of the termination of the contracts. They decided to sell space for short term rates until rates went back up. BSWP recently did the same with NG pipes. A contract is a contract and they will be fulfilled. Roght now there is more oil moving than pipes can handle in most places and rates actually moving up a bit in the last year.

    Frackers will simply wait for the next year using their hedges. No pain for about 8 or 9 months when they will need to cut capex to keep cash flow. If prices still low then the big risks are to counterparty holders on hedges who are looking at losses in the BILLIONS and small producers who will go BK. interesting part is NG is holding fine and those on the NG side or producing very light oil along with NG and NGLs will be fine.

    If prices are still down a year from now no predictions except that Venezuela, Nigeria, and Russia will default on their debts and countries with more than 25% of their budget energy related like Canada and others will be in a recession or worse. Canada oil revenues are on a progressive rate schedule so oil prices going down by 40% will cut Canada revenues by about 35%. Big pain coming there

  • Reply to

    I don't get today's pps action

    by awesomestranger Dec 1, 2014 12:16 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 1, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Trying to decipher daily moves is worthless. Everyone today is watching oil - not Ampion!

  • Reply to

    Which midstreams to avoid or sell?

    by clrodrick Nov 29, 2014 6:39 PM
    arbtrdr arbtrdr Dec 1, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Pretty simple - If prices stay below say $50 for an extended time then you first have producersw cutting back on capex. After a year or so they will need to cutr back on drilling but continue to drill as many have volume committments and also need to drill to keep leases. The real mess comes on the hedges in place when someone defaults. For example BTE (Canada jr.) has 2000bbl day at 90. Thus the guy on the other side is losing $60K a day or $22m a year. There are others who have many times more in hedged production. How long can this continue?

    Next look at Venezuela and Russia who base their economy on oil. What will they need to do to aviod defalut. As to MLPs - some like EPD handle little oil and mainly NG/NGLs but others are far oilier. Again - the MLP risk is that producers default on delivery contracts. There is little risk on NG/NGL side today, but you never know.

    As to buying - are you serious? Everything remotely associated with energy is getting destroyed! Things likely to get worse before they get better. The good thing is the processors have hedged things and are likely to make good $$ for another year. After that it all depends on who on the E&P side default along with a guarantor or two on the hedges.

ETP
59.48+0.99(+1.69%)Feb 27 4:03 PMEST

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