Good question. I put in what I thought was a stink bid and ended up buying on flash crash day. Already owned too much, but fine with more MWE. I personally think MWE cc wil be similar to KMI. sort of listening to paint dry with no real news. The only possibility of good news is that bolumes really ramped up in both Marcellus and Utica and do not expect that beyond projections. The distribution increases could certainly grow to be better than .01. That is because their growth package is getting to be a smaller % of EV each quarter as MWE gets larger. This simply a function of scale rather than a fundamental change. Semple again could announce more projects and that goes away for another year. I disagree in MWE having a distribution policy of .01. They put that in as the minimum increase and will quickly and easily increase if DCF per unit grows faster. Estimate if MWE simply slowed their growth they would have another .10-.15 per unit to distribute in 2015 nad the projects would contribute their existing .10. That should happen soon. I think .10 is equal to .02 per quarter. If I were a betting person maybe 10% chance of .015 this quarter rising to 30% next quarter. 50/50 we are at .03 for 2015YE as Utica gets to a critical mass and Marcellus projects come out full. Expect no real news from SW. That area simply chuggs on and produces big ROI.
ARB - Started at 4:57am!
Options tomorrow. I own some puts at $75 and exercised them yesterday. Got to have a lot of people trying to cover. Again - has anything changed with MWE in the last week? Does MWE gvie a rat's behind about the price of oil? Does MWE really care much about the price of NG because it has fixed fees and volumetric committments? Now have too much MWE, but guess that eventually will be OK for those that are patient.
Hmmmm. Back to 75 from about $67. The Fed ins now looking as no inflation or negative which is worse. Raising rates now off the table for longer. No reason for price to drop in the first place this far. Buying op? no idea but nothnig has changed at BPL and they trade oil. Actually chealer oil makes them more money.
Think one needs to wait till things settle down. Down big time then up even more. After hours (I know it doesn't mean much) is sharply down for all MLPs I looked at. Happy to sit back and watch for a while. FWIW I was down almost 1.75% yesterday and up today about 2.5%. Still down about 6% for the month. No pleasant but without any basis in fact.
Duh! Customers are selling their funds. Thus the funds are liquidating. nothnig new to MLPs. Leverage is great going up and hell going down. The price moves get crazy and impossible to predict.
Just ask if anything meaningful changed for PAA. If no then it is certainly too late to sell now!
lots of institutional seling pressure. Those guys use lots of leverage and are getting sells, thus forced liquidation. Nothing new in MLP arena. Has happened twice since the 2008 financial crisis. The other issue with ETE was a lot of hot money following the sharp move up. Right now lots of sellers and few buyer out there. Volume spikes when that happened mean going down.
Big question is - Has anything significant happened to ETE? If not do not panic.
Agree with everything but buying now. ALL MLPs are getting hammered. Nothnig rational going on here but rather margin calls both for institutions and retail investors. NG prices have not been effected and are higher than 1 year ago. Right now a company could have super earnings and a great distribution increase and it would mean nothing. Problem is the earnings are trailing and only two things will help. First is everything to stabilize and margin calls to stop and the second is earnings come next February. After the oil drop and if volumes hold up (of course they will) then prices will move up.
What floor? You get NGLS stock that was down 8% today in a fixed ratio. Yes, there is a chance at a rasied offer from Targa or another MLP, but the Cohens will be difficult to deal with.
Would suggest this now is into the area of margin calls and forced selling. A hedge fund can buy $100M worth of MLPs and put up $10M worth of cash. Problem is with things down they would need to come up with the $5M they are down and another $10M for the margin. They are cashing out. This is what happened on friday. Today is more retail investors selling. No really huge volume until the end and then sort of panic selling. Retail has got to have a lot of margin calls coming too. No idea when this will end as selling on the close got heavier. tomorrow likely to continue down.
Actually no. US companies need approx $70bbl. Canadian producers about $80bbl. Below that and drilling mostly stops and supply quickly falls asw shale oil has a high decline rate.
The decline is a matter of banks putting margin calls on institutional investors. When the investor does not put up the additional $$ the psoition is sold. That happened Friday and is again happening today along with retail bailing out.
EPD was not involved with Keystone. Enbridge has completed and is building lines both to midwest, East and Gulf. Right now EPD and others cannot handle more oil. exports are constrained by dockage with little expansion room at most ports. The dropoff is not associated with anything now except oil dropping. If it was Keystone then why would MWE be down almost 20%. They have most assets in the Marcellus.
Read the article. Agree on ME2 issues. Also a big question - Isn't Carlysle a partner in Philadelphia Refinery. I thought they were expanding it and not tearing it down using oil by rail instead of expensive Nigerian oil. Is the article wrong or what?
The only filing I can see is a CORRECTED 10Q. There were two mistakes in prior 10Q . Note the filing is for a 10Q/A - A = amended. Nothing new here except a signature page.
"We are filing this Amendment No. 1 on Form 10-Q/A to amend Exhibit 32.1 and Exhibit 32.2 to our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 as originally filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 6, 2014 (the “Original Form 10-Q”). We have determined that our previously signed Exhibit 32.1 and Exhibit 32.2 contained incorrect dates due to an administrative error. No other sections were affected, but for the convenience of the reader, this report on Form 10-Q/A includes our Original Form 10-Q in its entirety, as amended. This report on Form 10-Q/A is presented as of the filing date of the Original Form 10-Q and does not reflect events occurring after that date, or modify or update disclosures in any way other than as required to reflect the correction described above."
Don't think Zacks had anything to do with at least two huge institutional sellers dumping large block on the market today. At 300K block is what pushed the price down closely followed by 21K more. Volume almost 5X normal. Simply cannot absorb that many shares on the sell side. Similar action on most other MLPs.
Marv - Go to the MLP guy blog. There are about 6 or 7 similar drops in recent years. A link is posted at IV MLP board. Not really ususual, or maybe I should say it happens occasionally. Is the drop rational - no. The drop in PAA and MMP who benefit from lower oil prices shows this.
That someone put up 1,900,000 units for sale at the market. Similar action in almost every MLP today. Panic selling and institutional dumping. nothing new in this sector.
The Fed announced the end of QE2 about a week or two ago. The current drop is simply institutional selling and retail buyers not stepping up. Drop 40K in MWE or 2M EPD units and you get down a few $$ temporarily. ALL energy even MLPs where there is little commoditiy exposure and the exposure they have is positive (for KW contracts lower prices are a positive ditto on storage for MMP for example) is down significantly. Fear is what has happened. Europe is again sinking and the Ebola scare making people go to cash. Nothing rational in MWE going under $70 today.
As to interest rates - they ARE going higher next year. The Fed will raise rates to get things on a more normal platform. That will eventually put pressure on MLPs, but not today or for the rest of 2014. Great time to acquire more. I was assigned my October 72.5 puts yesterday. Was happy to buy at an effective cost of about $69, but am now a bit over allocated to MWE. oh well.
jester - Oil is down as is ANYTHING remotely associated with it. Whether lower oil prices change earnings or not has nothing to do with move down. Only people are selling "energy". As for more oil moving - USA cannot handle any more light oil unless we get exports. Condensate will not cut it. More oil w/o exports means lower prices and thus a bunch of shale oil will not be produced for a while to cut drilling costs.
MLPs have not yet hit the bottom. PAA, EPD and others have declared and moved down big time with everyone else. Agree that MLPL is a gamble and probably not a good one right now IMO.
$80 is pretty likely and $75 or lower certainly possible. The good news is BTE is mostly hedged and ANY, absolutely ANY, news of more tensions or approval of exports moves oil up in the US. The question might be longer term prices and we are not likely to go lower than that because volumes in the US will fall quickly as producers generally need $70 in most areas to cover costs and will simply cut back on the drilling for a while if that happens.