Marv - Happy New Year. Not sure what normalcy is. The economic and political turmoil has only just started. Canada is 27% of GDP related to oil and gas. Their tax revenues are dropping by some 20% nationally and over 1/2 in Alberta. Absolutely nothing canada can do. really realy tired of people quoting the 'cost" needed by various countries to run their government. What they need has little correlation between the "need" and the reality of today. I cannot tell you where we are going forward. I do know it is too late to sell. I own small pieces of 34 producers (only 1 MLP, 1 major and two Canada juniors). I am actually buying the small producers where they are cash neutral with $50 oil. The midstreamers are just fine till mid 2016 if things do not change as volumes will increase at last until then and LNG and NGL exports shjould kick in then. No idea on oil, but some countries will not produce as they were marginal areas and exploration will fall for riskier (either political or new exploration risk). Should guess we are near the bottom and will bump for a while on oil.
The answer is for at least a couple years - NONE. For example Harold Hamm - Chesapeake announced 2015 capex reduced by 50%. They also announced production to be UP another 20%. No remember most contracts have demand charges not related to usage for both oil and NG. Producers certainly want to keep their very best crews together and there are both production contracts and leases to be kept. Unless prices stay way down until say 2017 - no real issues for pipelines.
Most of all is demand falling? NO. Demand for both oil and NG in the USA is up. Certainly part is exports, but pipes, G&P and fractionation are just fine for the medium term.
The problem with the Bakken is being far from industrial users and difficult weatehr for about 5 months a year. There are 5 pipes now under construction so rail will decrease. Bakken wels have high decline rate so volumes there will be interesting. As to Permian - Old oil basin with lots of infrastucture and pipes in place for years. Why pay $10bbl to ship wg]hen pipes are only about $3 from there.
We are exporting mostly refined products at about a 1M bbl/day rate. Propane number one but also very large amounts of gasoline. The supply is decreasing and actually only about 2M bbl/day out of balance. Several of the smaller producers are cutting back and the North Sea production is falling as it is an older and costlier field to get new production. OPEC is only about 35-40% of production. There are indeed winners and that would include everyone in the USA who does not own directly of indirectly energy stocks. we are indeed consumers. guess the good news is americans are beginning for the last couple years to save a bit more $$. If interst rates moved up they might save even more. Is truly sad that the average family in their 60s has some 50K saved for retirement. Won't work very well.
You are correct that investors in industry using enery will be the big recepient of $$ in the short run. Wonder how long this imbalance will last? At least of the world economy got going demands for Ethane and the ret would rise and EPD and others would make lots more $$.
US oil is getting sold in the world market! The very light oil is being sold. Also is there any difference in our exporting oil and cutting our imports? We are not buying some 5M bbl/day we bought from Venezuea]la and middle east just a few years ago! Would love to know - Any difference on the end effect?
Try not looking at just one day. Single day movements tell you little. Over the last 2 months oil and gas down 10-20% and some cases more!
Marv - Lately the ansalyst numbers are pure nonsense. Agree in more stable times they make sense, but the E&P numers in last month silly. An great example in BBEP who was moved a couple days ago from an outpreform and a target in the $20s to a market preform and an $8 target. A day late and MANY dollars short. The problem with the headlines is similar to news reporting. The targets and ratings are a combination of computer generated and a ratio fixed by the broker on how many one can have in each category. The key as Marv alluded to is taking the time to listen to the cvalls, participate in asking questions to the company and reading the reports - there often IS good information in the report even if the target price is silly.
Northeast spot prices drop through the week. Due to colder weather and continued system maintenance at the start of the report week, prices at Algonquin Citygate (serving Boston), and Tennessee Zone 6 200L (Connecticut/New England) were elevated last Wednesday at just under $10/MMBtu. As temperatures moderated and maintenance was completed, prices at these locations fell through the week by approximately 50%, closing yesterday at $5.02/MMBtu and $4.82/MMBtu respectively. Prices at Transco Zone 6 NY (servicing New York City), also decreased after starting the week at an elevated level, falling 17% Wednesday-to-Wednesday.
ed - You have completely missed what is going on. The Saudis want Iran and Russia basically to get the $^% out of everybody elses business. The Saudis CAN effect the price but Russia is actually the biggest exporter! As to who is getting hurt - the intended targets of Russia and Iran probably the most along with Venezuela, Columbia, Mexico, Canada, nigeria, brazil, Argentina and the countries south of Russia.
The "surplus" today is some 2M bbl/day. The world can store some 900M bbls. So an oversupply will indeed force down production. The cutrrent situation wil end up cutting some 2M bbl/day from some marginal places. Very little of that in the USA.
I am pretty sure EPD quietly paid up and buried the $$ in a 10Q. That fiasco is behind them. EPD did not make any attempt at making amends in trying to deep six the ETP/Phillips Bakken oil pipe. Think that would will continue to fester.
Correct. Also EPD usually (except in a panic situation) has little correlation to oil prices. It does effectively trade of NG pricing and has msade a real niche it exports which are effected by neither. Understand taking profits. The first couple weeks in December also usually hit by lots of mom and pop sellers who bought a couple years ago and then got a surprise - a K-1. Are selling onw so not to receive in 2015. No idea how many for EPD but MWE some years ago (about 1/20 of market cap then) had over 10,000 individuals sell in December!
Marv - The COXE post is exactly what several other have posted. SA is indeed trying to send a political message to Russia - it was delivered and economically it has pretty well decimated an already hurting economy. Got to remember Russia is #1 energy exporter. Interesting that with oil down the NG people like MWE hurt. NGLs down but only because price of natural gasoline tied to gas price. That will move up and down in tandem. Nothing has effectively changed for MWE. NOTHING. same for most of the other NG MLPs. Several posts by myself and others on IV MLP board.
The big thing you have each year is about 10-20K sellers of fairly small lots of MWE. These are people who did not understand a MLP equals a k-1 and do not want another K-1 after the one for 2013. Happens each year. This year add on redemptions from CEFs and hedge fund sales alnog with general panic and you got down some 15% +/- for midstream and upstream destroyed. midstream that is olilier wil take longer to come back. Sure wish I were not fully invested.
On another subject - oil production is going to drop by some 3M bbl/day becuase smaller producers with medium to high costs are getting killed. columbia for example down by 700K a day as thry say now worth pumping/selling.
You need lots more education. EEP pays no dividend - should have figured that out in your reading - and any distribution increased are done each quarter in Jan, Apr, july, sept. Absolutely positively do not buy EEP until you go to the National association of Publically Traded Partnerships and read MLPs 101 a Primer. Googling MLPs will get you confused. Googling GP wil get you to Georgia Pacific - not anything to do with EEP/Q
govpur - When EPD bought out its GP EPD earnings and price went down for almost a year. The buyout was dilutive to earnings for about 9 months. The buyout also only worked because the Duncan family owned almost 2/3 of the GP and were willing to take almost no premium to make the company as a whole stronger. Does that situation exist here?
I agree that getting rid of the GP (lots of costs) as an economic entity would be good. Do not think right now the company cost stand the millions it would cost. MMP and MWE did it and they too had short term issues. Longer term it is a plus.