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Medgenics, Inc. Message Board

argoalpuche 82 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2015 12:10 PM Member since: Mar 17, 1998
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  • Retail Investors should be long-term investors and NOT traders! If you've taken a long-term view on ZIOP here is how you've been rewarded over the years:

    4/30/2013 closing price $1.68 (up 465% in two years)
    4/30/2014 closing price $3.60 (up 163% in one year)
    4/28/2015 current price $9.50 (approximately)

    Even if you got in back on 4/20/2012 the stock price was $4.55 (up 109% in three years)

    What long-term investor would not be happy with any of these returns. Ignore all the noise and the short blasters. This company has an awesome pedigree with a proven track record of delivering outstanding long-term returns for its investors. The shorts can continue to try and drive down the price but the real story is ZIOP is focused on delivering value to its partners and investors over a long period of time. I do expect additional positive news at some point throughout 2015 but whether it comes tomorrow or in 6-months I don't really care because I'll continue to have a significant investment in ZIOP on April 30, 2016 and for that matter probably April 30, 2020. Slow and steady!!!!! Good luck to all!!!!

    By the way, if you want to take advantage of short term stupidity try selling out of the money covered calls on ZIOP every time it runs up on rumors!!! Some of you blasted me about 2-months ago when I said I had been using this approach. It turns out that taking advantage of short term traders rumors, momentum and stupidity allows long-term investors to improve their overall return. Either way, I wish everyone the best of luck. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    To all QCOR/MNK investors...I think ZIOP

    by maxdaddyo Apr 18, 2015 2:09 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Apr 22, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    I apologize for my terrible grammar and spelling. I just reread my post. WOW!!! I should go back to school. LOL….Fast fingers and no proofreading. I hope you get my point. LOL….We are going higher in the long term. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    To all QCOR/MNK investors...I think ZIOP

    by maxdaddyo Apr 18, 2015 2:09 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Apr 22, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    Wow! Ok but you can say that about 1000 companies. A vague non specific statement that one stock could potential rise as much as some unrelated stock has rose in the past. Sorry but I thought you were trying to make a meaningful comparison. Having invested heavily in QCOR and ZIOP I was curious on where you were going with your comment. I now understand it was a meaningless statement simply saying that QCOR went up a lot and now ZIOP could go up a lot. Let me add another meaningless statement to this board: ZIOP has the potential upside that we all saw in AAPL when it was much lower. It also has the potential to end up like ZZZ. Don't worry I'll move on!!!! LOL….By the way, I like ZIOP for risk oriented long-term investors. Check out my prior posts. My covered out of the money covered call strategy when the volatility jumped through the rough seemed to be the appropriate strategy . Others laughed and thought I had left way to much money on the table. Well those calls have almost all expired worthless (thank you for the high premiums that were paid to me). I'm now staying long and expect to hear news within the next 90 days. We'll see. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    To all QCOR/MNK investors...I think ZIOP

    by maxdaddyo Apr 18, 2015 2:09 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Apr 19, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    To all QCOR/MNK investors...I think ZIOP

    by maxdaddyo Apr 18, 2015 2:09 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Apr 19, 2015 9:20 PM Flag

    I hate to say it but QCOR & ZIOP were completely different companies. I was a long time QCOR and still hold a large position in MNK. To try and compare QCOR & ZIOP is not reasonably. With that said, I do believe ZIOP is an excellent long term investment for risk oriented investments. I've been in ZIOP for a long time and hold both long position through both the stock and a long-term leap call position. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 31, 2015 7:58 PM Flag

    don't make it personal. to each his own. if he wants to lose his money I'm more than willing to take it. LOL…Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 31, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    south81sk, I never get worried about shorts that try and drive down the price in the short term. It just makes for better buying opportunities. The smart money usually wins out. Retail investors just need to understand why they are buying a stock and monitor the story over time. No different than what went on with QCOR/MNK. The QCOR shorts got absolutely crushed!!! QCOR was a mid-$20 stock only about 4 years ago and today it trades at the equivalent of almost $150. That's in the sure doesn't stink category. I'm staying long and using covered calls to help drive up my returns. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 31, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    I remember him!!! He just likes stirring things up. I don't think the good news is done coming out for the year yet! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 25, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    Still think your strategy was the correct one. If you like it so much you should be buying on the pullback. I'm taking in some excellent high vol premiums and will wait for the move back up and will sell the vol again. It's an excellent strategy on these high vol biopharma stocks. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 25, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Selling vol seemed to be the correct strategy! Don't ever fall in love with a stock! Good time to increase position in the next week or two. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 20, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    By the way, I did end up selling some more options up at the $170 strike that expire in October. That would represent a QCOR price of $183 or so. That would be just fine with me!!!! I've sold other strikes too. I had a fairly nice size position in QCOR prior to the deal and still hold the entire position. I have sold covered calls on about 75% of the position and if the stock continues to move up I expect to sell additional calls. I'll let them take the stock or if below the strike I will just resell more calls. With Paulson involved I think the stock holds above $95 - $100 in a consolidation move. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 20, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Thanks for the note. Needless to say, you should take all comments with a grain of salt and develop your own strategy that works for your financial situation. In my opinion the average retail investor TRADES way to much. They really should learn how to perform strong DD on a company. My typical time from when I complete my DD and decide to initiate a position in a stock is between 5 - 7 years. Yes, I've modified this as things evolve but I never invest thinking I'm going to make a quick "trade". I'm a healthcare junky and uses options to help hedge risk and/or improve my overall return. Don't be a pig and don't fall in love with any stock (even QCOR - LOL!!!!). Slow and steady! Good luck to you.

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 20, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    nyjohngray - Getting more aggressive at selling call options. Here are the street estimates for MNK:

    9/15 - $7.10
    9/16 - $8.05
    9/17 - $9.29

    At a price of $145 you would be getting paid 18 times earnings that are expected in 18 months and almost 16 times earnings expected in 30 months!!! Don't forget to add the high vol premium you pick up. I'm selling 60 - 90 day options so I'll take 18 times earnings in a year now plus the premium. If I don't get called away I just repeat the strategy. I may even move up the strike $5 or so if the stock continues trending higher. In addition, I believe MNK's base portfolio (excluding QCOR's drug) is nowhere near as strong on the growth front. As such, I believe the 14.6% growth rate in EPS from 2016 to 2017 (2 1/2 years out) is pushing the high end for MNK without some sort of transformation transaction. I understand Paulson is involved but I don't play stocks based on hoping for a transaction to occur. I'll take my 6 to 7 X return over the last few years and be very happy. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Trivia Question

    by discodadda Mar 17, 2015 10:30 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 17, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    Nice to see some long term QCOR holdings still involved with MNK!!!! Congratulations to you all!!!!! Ignoring the noise and playing QCOR's incredible cash flow, strong balance sheet and growing revenues paid off incredibly well!!!! We now get to play MNK's strong balance sheet, growing revenues and strong cash flows!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!!!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 17, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    With the PCYC and Salix deals being announced all mid-cap biopharma's have been moving up aggressively. Needless to say Paulson being involved adds to the potential for a deal getting done. Remember he's a hedge fund guy. He's always looking for a trade! In addition, now that a couple of quarters are under their belt after the QCOR acquisition, the analysts have started to focus on 2016 and the estimates have been moving up. If you owned this prior to the QCOR and held it since the closing the QCOR equivalent is over $145 per share. For those of you who got in early on QCOR and stood strong during all the short sellers and NOISE for the past few years you have done incredibly well. I've been involved with QCOR/MNK for many years (check my past posts - got involved down in the $20 - $30 QCOR range). I stayed long throughout the deal and only very recently started selling out of the money call options. Without a deal being announced (I don't play stocks for deal announcements) I think MNK has broken out nicely but should be due for a consolidation somewhere in the $120 - $125 range (it may continue running a little bit more before you see the consolidation). I just wanted to take advantage of the strong upward move. I'm willing to give up my QCOR stock at the equivalent of $160 - $165 ($145 - $150 MNK value). Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 13, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    Two comments:

    If the stock jumps to $20 immediately you can buy in and catch the short squeeze over the next couple of days up to $25. Remember anyone playing the option side is watching the stock closely and can get in quickly. You would lose some of the initial pop but not the short squeeze follow through. You have no downsize protection just holding the stock and if the deal takes 3 - 4 months you could have really locked in excellent profits by selling the volatility.

    My second point is if you feel really strongly about the "once in a lifetime paradigm change in cancer care, possibly talking CUREs here" I guess you can just go long ZIOP and plan to hold it for the next 10 - 15 years and not look at it for at least 12 - 24 months. Though I sound like a short term trader I am definitely not one!!!! I use options to expand my overall return and protect my downside while still making long-term long investments. The strategy I outlined above has worked very well on stocks like CELG, REGN, BIIB & GILD (great stock to play this way over the last 6 months). Yes, the have run tremendously and yes I've give up small amounts of stock over time but I also have done extremely well increasing my overall return and buying additional stock at lower prices than the current market (selling blind puts on stocks that I want to buy - I either get to buy it 7 - 15% lower than the current market or I pick up the premium on the puts for free). Remember I only sell blind puts on stocks that I am willing to buy. Not on stocks that I think are going to crash and burn. That's just gambling. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 13, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Here's the math:

    Buy at $10 in February
    Sell covered March $15 call in early February for $1
    If deal is not announced and stock stays around $11 - $13 you made 10% profit (over 100% annualized), protected your downside to $9 and immediately repeat the strategy (stock should stay above $10 due to pending announcement).
    If deal is announced during first covered sale you will make 60% ($15 - $10 + $1) in a month (over 700% annualized). I'll take 60% in a month any day of the week. No reason to be a pig!!!
    If deal is not announced and stock drops back to $10 you made 20% profit in 2 months (over 100% annualized), protected you downside to $8 and can repeat strategy again (stock would stay above $10 due to pending announcement).
    If deal is announced in the second covered contract period you will make 70% ($15 - $10 + $1 + $1) in two months (over 400% annualized).
    If there is a deal announced how high do you think the stock goes on the pop? Don't forget you can buy in right away and understand you would lose some of the pop but my guess is the pop wouldn't be higher than around $18 maybe $20. Yes, you give up some of the upside but you only win if there is an announcement. I'm about managing risk and making strong returns utilizing smart option strategies. What happens if the street turns on the stock and it gets hammered (because of no deal or a delay in the deal) back to $8. You would lose 20% of your money on paper and I would be at break-even after the two option sales. It's just a prudent way to lock in solid returns and manage your downside risk. MY TWO CENTS!!!

    As all my posts will confirm, I'm long the stock and long the leap options and covered on various short term high volatility options. I've been in ZIOP for more than 2 1/2 years and have already taken excellent profits off the table and playing with house money. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 13, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    Sell vol!!!!!! A few weeks ago you could have been buying this stock under $10. A few weeks later the stock broke $13. A great time for a short term trader to sell $15 short dated calls. The premium was high and the time decay great. You could have pocketed more than $1 a contract. It would have protected your downside all the way to $9 and gave you a 60% gain in less than 1 1/2 months. As is typical with many options the contract will probably expire worthless or you can buy it back for less than .50 and just do it again! Great way to increase your overall return in a high volatility small cap stock. I've used the strategy for years with great success. If you want to build a bigger position in a stock selling puts is a good way to get in at a lower price or just pocket the premium. Again, you have to want to own the stock to sell the blind put. I'm long the stock and long through leap options and have written lots of covered calls that expire next week. I expect I'll get a chance to write some April contracts. Possibly looking to buy back the calls on Monday as the time decay will take effect. My two cents. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    REGN should buy a couple small

    by doctor_zing Mar 3, 2015 10:33 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 9, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    REGN is a R&D machine. They company is made up of some of the best scientist in the world lead by a world class scientist, George Y. They are not a CELG when it comes to M&A or strategic investors. Yes, Len orchestrated two awesome deals many years ago with Sanofi and Bayer but as far at being set up to perform DD and invest in other companies R&D (remember Sanofi and Bayer invested in REGN's R&D) its just not their core competency. They have a huge runway and should stay focus on deliver on their pipeline. They have enough proprietary drugs in development to easily drive the company to $100 billion market cap. They sure should try and be something they aren't at this point. No reason to. My two cents. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 6, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    I guess a 5 1/2 times return in the last 5 months is your definition of "looking shaky now". I do enjoy the entertainment value you bring to the board. You should consider taking Cramer's job. He's a great entertainer and a weak stock picker too!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all (even you)!

    Sentiment: Buy

MDGN
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