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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

argoalpuche 92 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 25, 2015 2:09 PM Member since: Mar 17, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 25, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    Still think your strategy was the correct one. If you like it so much you should be buying on the pullback. I'm taking in some excellent high vol premiums and will wait for the move back up and will sell the vol again. It's an excellent strategy on these high vol biopharma stocks. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 25, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Selling vol seemed to be the correct strategy! Don't ever fall in love with a stock! Good time to increase position in the next week or two. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 20, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    By the way, I did end up selling some more options up at the $170 strike that expire in October. That would represent a QCOR price of $183 or so. That would be just fine with me!!!! I've sold other strikes too. I had a fairly nice size position in QCOR prior to the deal and still hold the entire position. I have sold covered calls on about 75% of the position and if the stock continues to move up I expect to sell additional calls. I'll let them take the stock or if below the strike I will just resell more calls. With Paulson involved I think the stock holds above $95 - $100 in a consolidation move. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 20, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Thanks for the note. Needless to say, you should take all comments with a grain of salt and develop your own strategy that works for your financial situation. In my opinion the average retail investor TRADES way to much. They really should learn how to perform strong DD on a company. My typical time from when I complete my DD and decide to initiate a position in a stock is between 5 - 7 years. Yes, I've modified this as things evolve but I never invest thinking I'm going to make a quick "trade". I'm a healthcare junky and uses options to help hedge risk and/or improve my overall return. Don't be a pig and don't fall in love with any stock (even QCOR - LOL!!!!). Slow and steady! Good luck to you.

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 20, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    nyjohngray - Getting more aggressive at selling call options. Here are the street estimates for MNK:

    9/15 - $7.10
    9/16 - $8.05
    9/17 - $9.29

    At a price of $145 you would be getting paid 18 times earnings that are expected in 18 months and almost 16 times earnings expected in 30 months!!! Don't forget to add the high vol premium you pick up. I'm selling 60 - 90 day options so I'll take 18 times earnings in a year now plus the premium. If I don't get called away I just repeat the strategy. I may even move up the strike $5 or so if the stock continues trending higher. In addition, I believe MNK's base portfolio (excluding QCOR's drug) is nowhere near as strong on the growth front. As such, I believe the 14.6% growth rate in EPS from 2016 to 2017 (2 1/2 years out) is pushing the high end for MNK without some sort of transformation transaction. I understand Paulson is involved but I don't play stocks based on hoping for a transaction to occur. I'll take my 6 to 7 X return over the last few years and be very happy. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Trivia Question

    by discodadda Mar 17, 2015 10:30 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 17, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    Nice to see some long term QCOR holdings still involved with MNK!!!! Congratulations to you all!!!!! Ignoring the noise and playing QCOR's incredible cash flow, strong balance sheet and growing revenues paid off incredibly well!!!! We now get to play MNK's strong balance sheet, growing revenues and strong cash flows!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!!!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 17, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    With the PCYC and Salix deals being announced all mid-cap biopharma's have been moving up aggressively. Needless to say Paulson being involved adds to the potential for a deal getting done. Remember he's a hedge fund guy. He's always looking for a trade! In addition, now that a couple of quarters are under their belt after the QCOR acquisition, the analysts have started to focus on 2016 and the estimates have been moving up. If you owned this prior to the QCOR and held it since the closing the QCOR equivalent is over $145 per share. For those of you who got in early on QCOR and stood strong during all the short sellers and NOISE for the past few years you have done incredibly well. I've been involved with QCOR/MNK for many years (check my past posts - got involved down in the $20 - $30 QCOR range). I stayed long throughout the deal and only very recently started selling out of the money call options. Without a deal being announced (I don't play stocks for deal announcements) I think MNK has broken out nicely but should be due for a consolidation somewhere in the $120 - $125 range (it may continue running a little bit more before you see the consolidation). I just wanted to take advantage of the strong upward move. I'm willing to give up my QCOR stock at the equivalent of $160 - $165 ($145 - $150 MNK value). Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 13, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    Two comments:

    If the stock jumps to $20 immediately you can buy in and catch the short squeeze over the next couple of days up to $25. Remember anyone playing the option side is watching the stock closely and can get in quickly. You would lose some of the initial pop but not the short squeeze follow through. You have no downsize protection just holding the stock and if the deal takes 3 - 4 months you could have really locked in excellent profits by selling the volatility.

    My second point is if you feel really strongly about the "once in a lifetime paradigm change in cancer care, possibly talking CUREs here" I guess you can just go long ZIOP and plan to hold it for the next 10 - 15 years and not look at it for at least 12 - 24 months. Though I sound like a short term trader I am definitely not one!!!! I use options to expand my overall return and protect my downside while still making long-term long investments. The strategy I outlined above has worked very well on stocks like CELG, REGN, BIIB & GILD (great stock to play this way over the last 6 months). Yes, the have run tremendously and yes I've give up small amounts of stock over time but I also have done extremely well increasing my overall return and buying additional stock at lower prices than the current market (selling blind puts on stocks that I want to buy - I either get to buy it 7 - 15% lower than the current market or I pick up the premium on the puts for free). Remember I only sell blind puts on stocks that I am willing to buy. Not on stocks that I think are going to crash and burn. That's just gambling. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 13, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Here's the math:

    Buy at $10 in February
    Sell covered March $15 call in early February for $1
    If deal is not announced and stock stays around $11 - $13 you made 10% profit (over 100% annualized), protected your downside to $9 and immediately repeat the strategy (stock should stay above $10 due to pending announcement).
    If deal is announced during first covered sale you will make 60% ($15 - $10 + $1) in a month (over 700% annualized). I'll take 60% in a month any day of the week. No reason to be a pig!!!
    If deal is not announced and stock drops back to $10 you made 20% profit in 2 months (over 100% annualized), protected you downside to $8 and can repeat strategy again (stock would stay above $10 due to pending announcement).
    If deal is announced in the second covered contract period you will make 70% ($15 - $10 + $1 + $1) in two months (over 400% annualized).
    If there is a deal announced how high do you think the stock goes on the pop? Don't forget you can buy in right away and understand you would lose some of the pop but my guess is the pop wouldn't be higher than around $18 maybe $20. Yes, you give up some of the upside but you only win if there is an announcement. I'm about managing risk and making strong returns utilizing smart option strategies. What happens if the street turns on the stock and it gets hammered (because of no deal or a delay in the deal) back to $8. You would lose 20% of your money on paper and I would be at break-even after the two option sales. It's just a prudent way to lock in solid returns and manage your downside risk. MY TWO CENTS!!!

    As all my posts will confirm, I'm long the stock and long the leap options and covered on various short term high volatility options. I've been in ZIOP for more than 2 1/2 years and have already taken excellent profits off the table and playing with house money. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a friendly reminder

    by beautifuldaytobike Mar 12, 2015 10:15 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 13, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    Sell vol!!!!!! A few weeks ago you could have been buying this stock under $10. A few weeks later the stock broke $13. A great time for a short term trader to sell $15 short dated calls. The premium was high and the time decay great. You could have pocketed more than $1 a contract. It would have protected your downside all the way to $9 and gave you a 60% gain in less than 1 1/2 months. As is typical with many options the contract will probably expire worthless or you can buy it back for less than .50 and just do it again! Great way to increase your overall return in a high volatility small cap stock. I've used the strategy for years with great success. If you want to build a bigger position in a stock selling puts is a good way to get in at a lower price or just pocket the premium. Again, you have to want to own the stock to sell the blind put. I'm long the stock and long through leap options and have written lots of covered calls that expire next week. I expect I'll get a chance to write some April contracts. Possibly looking to buy back the calls on Monday as the time decay will take effect. My two cents. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    REGN should buy a couple small

    by doctor_zing Mar 3, 2015 10:33 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 9, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    REGN is a R&D machine. They company is made up of some of the best scientist in the world lead by a world class scientist, George Y. They are not a CELG when it comes to M&A or strategic investors. Yes, Len orchestrated two awesome deals many years ago with Sanofi and Bayer but as far at being set up to perform DD and invest in other companies R&D (remember Sanofi and Bayer invested in REGN's R&D) its just not their core competency. They have a huge runway and should stay focus on deliver on their pipeline. They have enough proprietary drugs in development to easily drive the company to $100 billion market cap. They sure should try and be something they aren't at this point. No reason to. My two cents. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 6, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    I guess a 5 1/2 times return in the last 5 months is your definition of "looking shaky now". I do enjoy the entertainment value you bring to the board. You should consider taking Cramer's job. He's a great entertainer and a weak stock picker too!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all (even you)!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 5, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    You may be right. I sure hope you are but….

    I don't think the move from $20 (by the way my first by is at $35 - yes I bought it all the way up to $90). to $112 was due all to b-thal. The SCD preliminary data was reported on too. Not a big deal. Just wanted full disclosure. With about 33 million shares outstanding I think a market cap above $5 billion would be a stretch. Hopefully we'll have a chance to see what happens. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 5, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    I happen to agree that no offer will be coming prior to the data coming out (probably in the middle of the year). It would probably take another 6 month to negotiate a deal based on how strong the data is and what the timing for the next steps. I do believe the data will be a binary event and if positive could drive the stock well above $150 (approximately $4.5 - $5 billion market cap). Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is shareprice dropping ?

    by cdrucker Mar 4, 2015 2:25 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 4, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    I was with you when the big sell orders hit today but the bounce back by the end of the day would seem to indicate that ZIOP wants to keep going higher. I know its down in after hours today but the option action still seems to indicate news coming before next Friday. Just my two cents. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    when to get out

    by davedar100 Mar 4, 2015 1:35 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 4, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    Why not think about buying a put to protect a dramatic pullback and ride the upside all the way knowing you are locked in at least at a double (net of the premium cost)? I know the puts have a very high premium but you'll sleep at night knowing you have at least a double with the unlimited potential to go much higher? Another riskier approach would be to what for the news and sell 1/4 of you position and play with house money. You can almost do that now. Lots of ways to play a big move up. Don't over think it and remember NO ONE EVER WENT BANKRUPT SELLING AT A PROFIT!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Monster Squeeze

    by expstktrader Mar 4, 2015 1:08 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 4, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    I'm with you!!! Tough for the shorts to cover and every time they try to drive it down the smart money is stepping in and buying the little dips. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Monster Squeeze

    by expstktrader Mar 4, 2015 1:08 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 4, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    why not sell a short dated covered call? If a deal is announced you'll make excellent money on an annual basis. If the deal doesn't happen in the next 2 1/2 weeks you'll pick up a nice premium because the vol on the call side is absolutely nutty. If the stock sells down you are protect a small amount by the high vol premium on the call. If nothing happens in March or the strike price isn't hit just repeat the strategy for April. I totally get you are giving up some of the upside but your annual return will still be incredible and you have the potential to pocked the premiums if a deal is delayed a few months. My two cents…..Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 3, 2015 8:45 PM Flag

    sorry for all the typos and errors. fast fingers. LOL…..

    Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 3, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    REGN, CELG & GILD all were not earning a penny when they started their upward move. REGN and CELG didn't even have an approved drug!!!! Nothing as you would say. I guess you aren't familiar with the risk profile of playing a small cap biopharma/tech stock. Almost all small biopharma/tech stocks start out having no revenues or earnings. They often burn through tens of millions of dollars in capital each year. Regarding ZIOP funding source, they just executed a secondary offering that gives them enough capital into 2017. With a chairman like Kirk (his track record is truly impressive), you have to feel that access to capital and potential partnerships are readily available. Under your theory every small cap biopharma company with no revenues or earnings should be sold or at least puts bought on them. I sure hope you didn't try that approach on REGN, CELG, BIIB or GILD. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

REGN
448.38-5.61(-1.24%)Mar 26 4:00 PMEDT