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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

argoalpuche 58 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 30, 2014 8:18 PM Member since: Mar 17, 1998
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  • Reply to

    So much potential

    by dividendseeker Sep 25, 2014 5:43 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 30, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    These guys are scientist not deal guys!!!!! I am highly confident that REGN isn't buying anyone anytime soon!!! They are focused are bringing strong science and subsequent drugs to the market!!! And NO Sanofi or Bayer is NOT buying REGN anytime soon!!!! Slow and steady!!! Good luck to all!!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What's going on?

    by argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 2:16 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    CLOSER to $305 not closing……LOL…..Fast fingers!!!! Sorry…..Slow and steady! Good luck to all!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What's going on?

    by argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 2:16 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    I'm long a fair amount of ACTs stock. I'm not sure a call spread makes sense at this point. I'll probably just hang out and see if there is an announcement. I like the stock over the next 3 - 5 years anyway. I did sell some call options at $250 back when the FRX deal closed just to try and make some short-term profits. At the time I would have been happy to give up ACT at $250. The rumors hadn't started yet. They expire shortly so I'm not that worried. Either way, I'm still long a large position in ACT. If ACT runs up to $285 or $290 without an announcement in the short run I'll probably look to sell calls above $300. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What's going on?

    by argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 2:16 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    ACT has been in play ever since the FRX deal closed. PFE has been rumored to be sniffing around for the last couple of months. I'm surprised just because Bloomberg writes a piece that the stock spiked on such big volume. It's not like the rumors haven't been out there. Even us little guys have been hearing them. LOL….I agree that your $290 price as an opening would be a realistic strong starting point. If PFE wants to get a friendly deal down and locked up I do believe they will need to be closing to $305 (18 1/2 times 2015 estimates of $16.37 - most analyst think this number is about .50 - .75 low). As always I recommend a slow and steady approach. Good luck to all!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What's going on?

    by argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 2:16 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    I saw…..tks…..I think its funny what's going on with all the rumors…..The good news is I'm long ACT as a result of the FRX deal and after doing my due diligence expected to continue to stay long over the next year. FRX was just coming out of a tough period and was starting to see real traction when it sold itself to ACT. Icahn definitely was putting pressure on the board and CEO to get a deal done as he was in FRX for awhile without a lot going on. It turned out that shareholders got to decide to continue to stay on board or cash out. I elected to stay on board. Whether ACT gets acquired or not I really don't care. I think I win either way. ACT's business over the next 3 - 5 years is poised to accelerate in revenues, EPS and free cash flow. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche by argoalpuche Sep 23, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Big volume and stock spike in last 1/2 hour!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 4, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    I believe there is no doubt that the deal that was pulled off by QCOR and MNK was a classic win-win for both sets of shareholders. MNK got a much faster growing company then the standalone company, increased its free cash flow significantly, didn't materially negatively impact their balance sheet and purchased QCOR at a depressed value due to all the shorts and outstanding investigations. QCOR shareholders got to convert their stock into 90% of a much large and tax beneficial company, received a $30 per share dividend and reduced the overall risk of being dependent on only one drug (a fast growing drug but still only one drug). I like what I see and I believe the street is going to continue to get on board over the first few quarters. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 4, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    Sometimes you get lucky! LOL……Clearly MNK has broken out. I think the shorts finally have realized that MNK has a solid balance sheet and growing revenues and free cash flow. They have started to cover their short positions realizing the stock in going to trend above $100+ over the next year. In addition, now that the deal is done the analyst are focused on how 2015 and beyond is going to look for MNK. I believe they like what they see. Those of you who know my posts know I estimated the combined company's 2015 EPS to be around $6.50 well before the deal closed. Now having reviewed the SEC filings and reworking my models. I believe the my original number of $6.50 and the street number of $6.70 is on the low side. I was to conservative on the tax benefits from the deal. I feel confident that a 2015 EPS that starts with a 7 is highly likely at this point. As such, a stock price above $100 is also highly likely. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question about GILD LEAPS

    by toddspencerusa Sep 2, 2014 6:30 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Sep 2, 2014 9:44 PM Flag

    Interesting way to leverage and play the upside. I actually bought Jan. 2016 $90 calls back in early May for around $10.50 and sold a Jan. 2016 put at the same time for around $9.50 (yes, I posted this trade a long time ago). My net cost was $1. Today the calls are worth more than $28 and the puts can be bought back for around $3.50. I've decided to hold the calls until at least early May to pick up LTCG and will probably close out the puts some time early next year to take any downside risk off the table. If the stock continues to run into the $130 range before year end ($8 per share x 16 PE or $8.50 x 15 -- both feel a little conservative to me but prudent), I may consider selling short dated out of the money calls up at the $150 range or so. Still looking at my valuation and option models to try and figure out the best way to maximize my return and still manage the risk. Put a similar type of trade on JAZZ that seems to be working out well too. By the way, ribeard6734 are you involved in KERX at all? I'm just curious. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    MNK EPS Estimates in 2015 and beyond

    by jcp8690 Aug 19, 2014 5:16 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 29, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Though many people think EBITDA and free cash flow are the same thing, they really aren't. EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. Free cash flow is operating cash flow (not EBITDA) less capex and dividends. I believe Trudeau's comment was made about fiscal year 2015. I believe the free cash flow for the combined company will be approximately $800 million ($700 million at the time of the deal plus $100 million increase discussed above). That would equate to just short of the $1 billion EBITDA. CAPEX and changes in working capital eats up about $125 - $175 million of the EBITDA. I'm basically agreeing with you and Trudeau. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    MNK EPS Estimates in 2015 and beyond

    by jcp8690 Aug 19, 2014 5:16 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Your kidding right? The combined companies free cash flow is going to be more than $700 MILLION PER YEAR! It you assume $100 million growth over the next 3 - 5 years you'll understand this was a great deal for the QCOR and MNK shareholders. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Nice to meet you too! No doubt people with chronic diseases are being helped by Acthar. I openly admit I'm not a doctor or scientist but I'm highly confident in my ability analyze and evaluate financial investments. I've been doing it for years and if I do say so myself I've been highly successful. Yes, I've lost lots of money in various investments. The gains have dwarfed the loses over the last 35 years!!!! LOL….I agree 100% that Acthar's potential is only going to expand with the new relationship and resources from MNK. Avoid the noise! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    I just reread my post and I want to apologize for my poor grammar. Board versus bored??? WOW!!!! I'm much more a numbers guy! LOL….Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So is Keryx going to pay for my wedding?

    by jenndiggy Aug 27, 2014 1:31 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    Rumor has it that you fiancé has been shorting KERX! ONLY KIDDING!!! I hope you run the family finances. You seem to be off to a good start! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So is Keryx going to pay for my wedding?

    by jenndiggy Aug 27, 2014 1:31 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    Sounds more like a kids birthday party! ONLY KIDDING! I hope you have a wonderful day!!! Best of luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Two weeks ago I posted the above. As I've stated many times, I'm not a short term trader but felt that MNK was poised to breakout after the deal closed. It's seems to have happened. I like the way the company is setting up over the next 2 - 3 years. It actually wouldn't surprise me at all if after MNK delivers 2 or 3 quarters post acquisition that we start to see a pick up in the buyout rumors (especially if the stock stays under $100). Either way, I'm staying long and avoiding the noise. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Selling continues after hours.

    by kingfarouk8 Aug 19, 2014 5:01 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    How are you feeling now? Ignore the short term moves. Focus on the outstanding balance sheet, growing revenues and free cash flow. Everything else will take care of itself. I'm sure we'll have some pullbacks over the next 2- 3 years but anyone buying the stock at these levels is going to be well rewarded over that time frame. Slow and steady! Best of luck to everyone!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    MNK EPS Estimates in 2015 and beyond

    by jcp8690 Aug 19, 2014 5:16 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    I know its only about 9 days but you are off to a nice start! I'll see you in a couple of years on the other side of $100!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So is Keryx going to pay for my wedding?

    by jenndiggy Aug 27, 2014 1:31 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 28, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    Thanks for the nice comment. I really try and talk straight. I focus on solid balance sheet and growing revenues and free cash flow in all my investment thesis. I truly think MNK is going to continue to slowly move higher. It wouldn't surprise me if we see a stronger move upward once the combined company has 2 or 3 quarters on its belt and the street starts to believe the story. I'm avoiding the noise and staying long for now. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So is Keryx going to pay for my wedding?

    by jenndiggy Aug 27, 2014 1:31 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Aug 27, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    You must be in under $3! My first buy was back in late 2012 at around $2.75! Being buying straight up until $15! Now I've been writing cover calls to hedge the position a little and increase my returns while keeping a significant piece uncovered so I can participate 100% in the upside. I hope you are able to pay for your wedding. Congratulations both on the wedding and your first stock pick!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

REGN
381.01+14.89(+4.07%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT

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