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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

argoalpuche 78 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Mar 17, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Why is shareprice dropping ?

    by cdrucker 17 hours ago
    argoalpuche argoalpuche 10 hours ago Flag

    I was with you when the big sell orders hit today but the bounce back by the end of the day would seem to indicate that ZIOP wants to keep going higher. I know its down in after hours today but the option action still seems to indicate news coming before next Friday. Just my two cents. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    when to get out

    by davedar100 18 hours ago
    argoalpuche argoalpuche 18 hours ago Flag

    Why not think about buying a put to protect a dramatic pullback and ride the upside all the way knowing you are locked in at least at a double (net of the premium cost)? I know the puts have a very high premium but you'll sleep at night knowing you have at least a double with the unlimited potential to go much higher? Another riskier approach would be to what for the news and sell 1/4 of you position and play with house money. You can almost do that now. Lots of ways to play a big move up. Don't over think it and remember NO ONE EVER WENT BANKRUPT SELLING AT A PROFIT!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Monster Squeeze

    by expstktrader 19 hours ago
    argoalpuche argoalpuche 18 hours ago Flag

    I'm with you!!! Tough for the shorts to cover and every time they try to drive it down the smart money is stepping in and buying the little dips. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Monster Squeeze

    by expstktrader 19 hours ago
    argoalpuche argoalpuche 18 hours ago Flag

    why not sell a short dated covered call? If a deal is announced you'll make excellent money on an annual basis. If the deal doesn't happen in the next 2 1/2 weeks you'll pick up a nice premium because the vol on the call side is absolutely nutty. If the stock sells down you are protect a small amount by the high vol premium on the call. If nothing happens in March or the strike price isn't hit just repeat the strategy for April. I totally get you are giving up some of the upside but your annual return will still be incredible and you have the potential to pocked the premiums if a deal is delayed a few months. My two cents…..Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 3, 2015 8:45 PM Flag

    sorry for all the typos and errors. fast fingers. LOL…..

    Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 3, 2015 8:44 PM Flag

    REGN, CELG & GILD all were not earning a penny when they started their upward move. REGN and CELG didn't even have an approved drug!!!! Nothing as you would say. I guess you aren't familiar with the risk profile of playing a small cap biopharma/tech stock. Almost all small biopharma/tech stocks start out having no revenues or earnings. They often burn through tens of millions of dollars in capital each year. Regarding ZIOP funding source, they just executed a secondary offering that gives them enough capital into 2017. With a chairman like Kirk (his track record is truly impressive), you have to feel that access to capital and potential partnerships are readily available. Under your theory every small cap biopharma company with no revenues or earnings should be sold or at least puts bought on them. I sure hope you didn't try that approach on REGN, CELG, BIIB or GILD. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 3, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    I appreciate you buying the puts I've been selling. With volatility up at over 130% selling vol makes a lot of sense. You still haven't given any reason other than the stock is up 400% for it to fall. You name 4 stocks that crashed and burned but I could name 20 that would have continue to rise. Go look at REGN, CELG, BIIB and GILD over the last 7 - 10 years. All of them have come from incredibly low basis and have reason well about the 400% range you quote. If you had been buying puts on any of those stocks over the last 10 years unless you got the timing perfect you would have lost your shirt. For that matter, if you have been buying puts since the pop in ZIOP to $8 you would be losing your shirt too. I'll listen if you have something of value to say as to why you believe ZIOP is go to drop dramatically. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 3, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    I keep posting because you haven't answered my question on what you think the peak sales will be? By the way, KERX is not receiving anything close to $10,000 per patient per year. The reported number accepted by the analyst community is around $5,000 per patient per year. The entire market for KERX's drug ASSUMING NO LABEL expansion is less than $1.5 billion. That's well accepted by any analyst who follows the company. So what say you? What will KERX's peak sales be excluding any label expansion. By the way, the street had an original target of $400 million by the end of 2017. Do to the slow start the numbers have now been taken down into the mid-$300 range. With 100 million shares floated that would represent about .60 - .70 of EPS at the end of 2017. That's nothing to write home about. Sorry but I just happen to disagree with your analysis. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

  • Reply to

    Price Target rised to $14 at Mizuho

    by davidfurtado Mar 2, 2015 9:30 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 3, 2015 9:40 AM Flag

    Are you still in on MNK or did you cash out? I use to be on that board a lot. I too did extremely well betting against the short noise. If you still own MNK it would be like holding QCOR at around $138. I also was lucky enough to be in on the FRX/ACT deal. I still hold ACT and MNK but started writing out of the money calls. I wouldn't mind reducing both of my positions a little bit. May want to take a look at ARRY and do your own DD. Strong balance sheet and a bunch of shots on goals. The do have a high float which is something I don't love. Slow and steady! Good luck to you.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 8:59 PM Flag

    Curious what you think the peak sales for KERX's drug will be? The street had a 2017 target of around $400 million but due to the weak start the 2017 targets are being modified down. I understand that 2017 may not be the peak sales, I'm just curious if you have a number in mind. Personally I think the number is around $500 million (peak). This assume NO LABEL expansion. I do understand that if KERX's test results are favorable at the end of this year there is a possibility for a label expansion. If I'm write with the $500 million the estimated EPS will be only about $1.50. In my opinion it will take about 7 years to get there. That would seem to indicate around a $22 stock or a 9% compounded return from current levels. Is that worth the risk at this point? Just curious. Thanks…Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

  • Reply to

    RTH258

    by argoalpuche Feb 27, 2015 5:13 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 8:45 PM Flag

    Much thanks…..ML came out with a piece today saying they were nearly concerned about RTH258 taking market share from Eylea. Full disclosure, UBS came out with a piece Friday that said they were concerned about RTH258. I just figured I would share. Thanks again for the information. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RTH258

    by argoalpuche Feb 27, 2015 5:13 PM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    Of course Sanofi is the most likely buyer. They have the flexibility but remember they have a standstill in place and unless the decide to go hostile (not happening) Len is controlling the entire process. I hear you about the health situation but needing a health issue to start the M&A process is just not reasonable at this point. The management team is outstanding, the balance sheet is rock solid, the pipeline is number 1 or 2 in the industry (CELG is right there with their pipeline) and the revenues and free cash flow will grow 15 - 20% compounded over the next 5-7 years. My personal belief is Len want to see REGN become a $100 BILLION company ($1,000 a share) before he will entertain any sort of tie up transaction. He's having way to much fun!!! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    I hope you are right on the BP announcement. It sure feels like the way the stock is trading and the option activity that the "short term" money is playing that sort of announcement. No doubt this stock is news driven over the next 15 months. As you pointed out below the shorts could really cause the stock to fly if the announcement included a top 5 biopharma oncology player. I can dream! LOL….Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Price Target rised to $14 at Mizuho

    by davidfurtado Mar 2, 2015 9:30 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    south81sk, I hope you are right!!!!! As you probably know, I'm long the stock and leap options and have continued to buy up through $10.50 (started buying Q3 2012). I recently put on a more leverage position through the selling of short dated high strike options and buying long dated lower strike options to help fund the leverage position. Now is the time I really want to see a binary positive news event. I know you aren't suppose to fall in love with a stock but I'm like a little kid in a candy store waiting for my mom to tell me get whatever you want. LOL. The good news is I'm playing with all house money! By the way, were you ever on the QCOR board? Fingers and toes are crossed. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    Lots of calls sold at $12 and $13 in March. An 11000 March $20 call was bought the other day at the close. Did someone know something or is that going to expire worthless too? May be only a head fake. We should know soon enough. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Price Target rised to $14 at Mizuho

    by davidfurtado Mar 2, 2015 9:30 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 5:45 PM Flag

    I'm surprised they didn't wait until it hit $14 before raising their target. LOL Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    overall -- fantastic call

    by jeremybates15 Feb 27, 2015 9:02 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    LOL…..Nice……I find it hard to believe that KERX should be compared to the greatest thoroughbred in history! Do you truly believe a one trick pony with nothing else in their pipeline and a total market potential without a label expansion in the $1 - $1.5 billion range can be worth $3.0 - $4.0 billion? Do you not have any better place to put small biopharma money? KERX is down more than 20% over the last year. How long do you wait for the stock to get moving again? Don't forget I was long (check all my posts) for more than 2 - 2 1/2 years. I sold because I felt there were better places to allocate capital. Take a look at ZIOP and ARRY both have a better short term, medium term and long term potential but that's just my two cents! Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

  • Reply to

    overall -- fantastic call

    by jeremybates15 Feb 27, 2015 9:02 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    You talk about your approach but you don't share your math as far as your revenue potential for Auryxia. I'm curious why not? What is you best guess for peak sales including the label expansion. Do you see the buy of another company being cash or stock. With 100 million shares outstanding already a stock deal would be difficult to execute unless it was in the $20 - $30 million range. Maybe they could get lucky but considering they don't have an internal team that is hunting for target the chance of success in a buyout is very low IMO. A cash deal would have to be at least 5 - 7 years off at best or it would require an equity raise which brings me back to my dilution concern. I'm interesting in your peak sales potential. Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

  • Reply to

    overall -- fantastic call

    by jeremybates15 Feb 27, 2015 9:02 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    I'm curious as to what you believe the overall potential for KERX's drug is with the label expansion. Do you think the fact that they have nothing else in the pipeline is a negative to the valuation or do you believe it has no effect on the long term valuation of KERX? Are you playing KERX for a buyout? Do you think no other drug company is studying this space? Tks….Slow and steady! Good luck to all!

  • Reply to

    overall -- fantastic call

    by jeremybates15 Feb 27, 2015 9:02 AM
    argoalpuche argoalpuche Mar 2, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    I hear you. I think your comment regarding reducing IV iron really gets to the label expansion issue. I'm on record of saying that if KERX gets label expansion (results due late in 2015) that the stock would have a material pop and the overall market would expand significantly. I just don't think that kind of binary event risk is worth staying in the stock at this point. Just my two cents. I do wish the longs best of luck. It'll be interesting to see where things go over the next 2 - 3 years. Slow and steady! Best of luck to all!

REGN
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