Markets had a big selloff at the end of the day.....AGAIN...and IWM gave up some gains but all indications are 2015 will be led by a small cap rally. Small caps have consolidated for 9 months and it's time for them to break out. I think 2015 will be the year of the small caps.
Canton has always had higher estimates on AAPL. He had a PT of $777 when the stock was $500 ($111/$71 pre-split) and was the only analyst that was right. Nobody else was even close. I'd say $150 is conservative.
High oil prices didn't cause the great recession, the Fed did. The Fed raised rates 17 straight times from 2004-2006 and even accelerated their rate increases to pop the housing bubble. What the Fed did not understand is that each rate increase/decrease takes 12-15 months to work it's way through the economy and show up in economic data. They didn't wait and WAY overshot the mark. Greenspan did the same thing in 1998-2000, he raised interest rates to pop the NASDAQ bubble which would have popped anyway but he made the problem far worse.
Recessions have been caused when the Fed starts raising rates too fast without pausing. When THIS stock market rises out of control and the Fed raises rates to pop it, then it will only be a matter of time before another recession is looming. Hopefully Yellen has learned these lessons from the devastating mistakes of Greenspan and Bernanke and won't make them again.
Wrong. While I agree that the market may pull back tomorrow after hitting 18,000, I expect it to explode to new highs on Wednesday and continue afterwards. The chart is very strong and bullish.
Tomorrow, GDP numbers come out at 8:30 and will almost certainly be revised higher. The reason for a pullback tomorrow is that the GDP numbers will be SO good, fears about an earlier Fed rate hike may cause a 1 day selloff....or oil may fall so much tomorrow on a stronger dollar and reignite fears of some perile that nobody really knows about. In any case, the chart on the market is so bullish right now, 18,000 will be taken out sometime this week and break all resistance.
Energy already has collapsed. Oil has now sold off on eight separate occasions that the Saudis said the same exact thing, they won't cut production. This will eventually turn into an oil superspike with prices of $150/bbl or more because spending on new wells/projects is being cut across the board. Eventually, the "glut" of oil will turn into a shortage (this will take some time but will happen) but the Boyz on Wall Street want these bubbles in both directions.
IWM is the same price today as it was in March. While the market has rallied, small cap stocks have not. That us about to change. Small caps will lead the charge higher for the next leg up in the market. iWM has just golden crossed on the chart and IWM will be strong and a market leader now.
The stock buybacks also have kept the price way down. Some of AAPL's buybacks are at a fixed price from the Big Boys. The Big Boys short AAPL stock and borrow shares from their own clients and resell it back to AAPL. Lately, though, AAPL has been making more purchases on the open market and less buybacks from the Boys. That has also helped raise the stock price which is still severely undervalued from all the games that have been played with it. I tend to think Carl Icahn's estimate of $200 is reasonable and that should become evident after next earnings.
I bet if you check almost any stock, it had heavy late volume. Friday was quadruple witching day, it only happens 4 times a year. It is the day when the monthly and quarterly options expire at the same time.
When I used to trade AAPL, it went down 70% of the time on Friday and up 70% on Mondays. Apparently options pinning manipulation still happens here, it was in full force on Friday. If the markets are green on Monday, I expect AAPL to have a very good day. Probably a good week too, the most money I have made from AAPL is during holiday weeks like Thanksgiving when the manipulators are away on vacation.
The likelihood that AAPL will raise guidance in early January is growing and with all the buybacks, this should easily be the best quarter in their history.
I've been away from AAPL for a while but this stock would have awful, awful Fridays, it had nothing to do with the stock's overall performance, outlook, or anything. It is a highly manipulated mess.
Today was especially bad because today is Quadruple Witching Friday which only happens 4 times a year. Meaning that not only were all the stock option contracts expiring today but also the expiration of the quarter. Note that oil went UP 6% today after it's been body slammed for months. I wouldn't read anything into today's performance given the circumstances behind this special Friday.
AAPL used to trade this way every single Friday. I even calculated it, AAPL falls 70% of the time on Friday and goes up 70% of the time on Monday. AAPL's performance on Friday's is totally dictated on losing the most amount of money for options call and put buyers, aka Maximum Pain. The more people want to buy the stock, the more they hammer it lower on Friday. After Morgan's bullish call this morning, the stock was doomed.
Not only do I expect AAPL to do well on Monday, but also much of next week. The times I've made the most money from AAPL is during Thanksgiving week when the manipulators are on vacation and the stock is driven mainly by market demand. I am expecting great things next week as a result.
This is the same shi-ft I saw last year on Fridays, AAPL always got pinned to an option to cause maximum pain with option buyers and sellers. I don't care if the market closes +200 today, AAPL will close at $112.
rose dramatically on the Monday before Christmas. Expecting the same this year, looks like it is being pinned to $112 for options expiration for maximum pain. I expect AAPL to close exactly at $112.0000 today and go up big on Monday.
What is the number this week? $111.50? $112? And do they still let AAPL rise on Mondays? I haven't been here for a while but that used to be the game...down on Fridays, up on Mondays.
The chart here shows a huge move up possible starting as early as tomorrow (Friday). If GMCR has an 8% or higher move tomorrow or Monday, don't be surprised. When GMCR has had this chart pattern in the past, it almost always moves up that much in a sungle day.
I pointed out rampant manipulation began on May 22 and 7 months later, the stock is down 70%. Coincidence?
FPP started falling weeks before oil did. It started falling in June, oil prices didn't fall until July. No other oil company I could find did that. Point is, somebody was manipulating this stock weeks before oil went down. I pointed out the manipulation to everyone here which started on May 22nd, 2 weeks before the stock started it's freefall descent. I have followed FPP for at least 10 years and everything changed on that particular date.
FPP's stock started to be manipulated on May 22nd, 6 full weeks before oil prices started plunging. Although my conclusion that someone wanted to buy the company was errant, something highly unusual was happening and my guess is that the Big Boys knew oil was going to be body slammed and they grabbed hold of FPP and manipulated it lower 6 weeks before the oil event started to happen.
As for JVA, any sudden volatility between now and the end of the year can be attributed to tax loss selling. Some people will sell JVA no matter what the price before December 31st.
For the rest of JVA's business, I have to mention something potentially significant. GMCR announced days ago is moving most of it's US coffee buying operations to Switzerland. This constitutes the core of their green coffee procurement. This is probably being done for tax purposes.
GMCR moving their coffee buying to Switzerland could have enormous ramifications for JVA. Then again, it may not have much impact. Since the company shares absolutely no information with the public, there's no way of really knowing. Keep an eye out for JVA setting up more international distribution centers. Hopefully one pops up in Switzerland and you can draw conclusions from that.
Right now, VXX has formed a perfect head & shoulders pattern. If It goes up considerably tomorrow, all bets are off and no telling how high it could go. A down day for VXX could start a market rally. A lot will depend on the Fed statement tomorrow.
That is why it has been spiking the past couple of sessions. Funding for the government ends tonight at midnight so a partial shutdown may happen tomorrow. The House just passed a spending bill but it's unlikely the Senate will vote on it tonight and the Senate would probably reject it anyway because they are controlled by Democrats which oppose the spending plan. The other scenario is a short-term continuing resolution could be passed tonight to keep the government running to buy them some more time to work out an agreeable plan that can be passed by both sides.
Media wants you to believe that somehow, cheap oil is harmful. From 1995-2000, one of the biggest bull markets in history, the US dollar kept rising and the price of oil kept falling. The problem here is not that oil is falling, but how quickly it has fallen. Companies depending on high oil prices are not able to react properly and will have to abandon wells that are no longer profitable and reduce future spending. This will result in an oil superspike down the road. I do think the Government should take steps to try and keep oil from freefalling. They could announce they will fill their strategic reserves, or lift the ban on exporting US oil.