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Coffee Holding Company, Inc. Message Board

argyle46 167 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 30, 2014 1:13 PM Member since: Feb 14, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Simply do not get it

    by soyllo Oct 30, 2014 10:26 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 30, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    This is a Wall Street ploy. Some stocks that should skyrocket don't while they are getting all the attention. Once NVAX excitement fades, it will be allowed to go up 20-30% or more. Unless Ebola magically cures itself.

  • Reply to

    when is the next earnings date?

    by super.linux Oct 30, 2014 9:10 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 30, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    Around Jan 24 2015. Even though Q4 ends tomorrow, they have up to 90 days to file their annual report which would include Q4 earnings. They could possibly issue a Q4 earnings update before then, but historically, they haven't.

  • Reply to

    API report is bullish for oil, here it is

    by fp718591 Oct 28, 2014 6:36 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 29, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    OIl was up nearly 2% at one point today. However, after the Fed statement. the US dollar soared and oil's gains were cut in half by the stronger dollar.

  • Reply to

    CEO Recent Stock Buy

    by ironstrength Oct 28, 2014 8:13 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 29, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    JVA has a licensing deal with a company that is building 6 coffee shops in China by the 1st quarter of 2015. It won't be a huge revenue boost initially but it is a positive step.

  • Reply to

    How could this be going up

    by crk00 Oct 28, 2014 6:28 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 28, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    Wall Street will always do the opposite when too many people get on one side of the trade. Even if they have to rig the inventory reports, oil will find a way to rebound.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Oct 28, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    I agree with Gartman. In about 50 years, most fuel will be replaced by nuclear fusion. In fact, Lockheed said they recently discovered a way to produce and contain it. In the meantime, Gartman is still an idiot.

  • Someone slammed the stock at the final second of trading for the second day in a row. Dropped it 2% in a single trade today and did the same thing yesterday. I'll see the closing trades in a few minutes, it was probably 100 shares that did it.

  • Reply to

    CNBC

    by peterahoward Oct 28, 2014 11:59 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 28, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    When Cramer bashes, my guess is he's doing it so his hedge fund buddies can buy at lower prices. It's kind of like when Goldman Sachs issues a very public price target, it's usually the opposite of what they expect. it's a good opportunity for their biggest customers to get in or out doing the opposite of what GS tells the public to do. If cramer is negative on nvax, you can bet his buddies are buying everything in sight.

  • Reply to

    NVAX will be great for a long time to come

    by argyle46 Oct 28, 2014 12:16 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 28, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Today's price actions can partially be attributed to the 2nd nurse being declared Ebola-free. However, the global number of cases is growing and this will be a recurring news story. Looking at the weekly and monthly charts, I can see very large gains ahead.

  • Market makers play these games to steal your shares. Trust me, NVAX is headed a lot higher than $5.50 in the days and weeks to come. Ebola will be in the news for a long time and, unfortunately, the story will only get worse, not better. A vaccine is needed and traders will continually go in and out of Ebola stocks trying to catch lightning and then get out. However, NVAX is a keeper. Ultimately this is a great buy at this price. It may head lower short term but it will definitely go higher as long as their clinical trials proceed as scheduled.

  • argyle46 by argyle46 Oct 28, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    I have a very good feeling based on Andrew Gordon's first insider buy since 2005. The only other time I had that feeling from an insider was a few years ago when a CEO of a small medical equipment company that he was in complete dictatorship control (similar to Andrew) did a very rare insider buy. Two months later, the stock rose 75% in a single day based on a contract win. I acted on his buy but not as much as I should have. I just had this feeling inside that the CEO of the medical company did a rare buy based on insider info and it proved to be correct. To me, Andrew's buy last week was the first time I've had that feeling since then. It may be nothing. Andrew may just feel that the company is undervalued. However, something more substantial may be behind it. Maybe someone wants to buy the company, or GMCR resumed their normal buying, or Andrew thinks coffee prices are headed a lot higher. It may take a couple of months for whatever he knows to be publicly announced. I'd like to see another insider buy as well just to bolster my intuition.

    At any rate, if I just looked at earnings and had no idea what the current stock price was, I'd guess JVA would be trading around $8 or $9. Curious to see what happens here, I think it will be good.

  • Reply to

    Heavier Volume, Move Up…...

    by cary10011 Oct 22, 2014 11:47 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 26, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Yeah, I followed them for a while but saw everyone get burned when the CEO missed badly on estimates. I don't know if he's still there but he fell out of favor with me when he was talking about building expansion and sales growth in one quarter and then talking about an unforeseen slowdown weeks later.

  • Reply to

    Heavier Volume, Move Up…...

    by cary10011 Oct 22, 2014 11:47 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 22, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    Couple of things. First, FPP is more oversold than at any time in the past 20 years, as far as my charts go back. This stock could have a massive rise just to partially unwind this oversold condition. Next, ZAZA is up more than 100% in 2 days based on results from 3 vertical oil wells in Texas. ZAZA's chart looked a lot like FPP and FPP is going up partially as a result of ZAZA's huge 2 day move. Lastly, FPP would cross into MACD positive territory tomorrow with another up day and that cross is typically accompanied by a big move higher.

    FPP sold off WAY more than it should have....that's why the charts show a larger oversold condition than at any time in 20 years. I would not be surprised to see a big move higher tomorrow. I've said for months that FPP is under heavy manipulation. That could work in both directions if the stock specialist is loaded with cheap shares.

  • Reply to

    Hedge funds

    by argyle46 Oct 20, 2014 3:13 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 21, 2014 4:50 AM Flag

    Brazil's coffee region has had a second drought this year, causing further damage to the coffee trees. The reason coffee prices have fallen the past week is because rains are finally back in the forecast but much later than normal for this time of year. The reason the hedge funds have taken their most bullish position in coffee in 6 years is because this latest drought is causing even more damage.

    What this means is this. 2015 will be a TERRIBLE year for coffee production. Coffee trees are not simply crops that you can replant. Lack of rains cause less flowers to grow, and now even some of those flowers are falling off due to the latest dry spell. Not only is a coffee shortage possible in 2015, but experts are now expressing concern that the production shortfall will last into 2016. That means extended high prices, perhaps even a super spike for coffee.

    All this translates to an extended period of potentially higher profits for JVA. Coffee will almost surely head to $3 in the coming months and perhaps beyond based on how bad the damage will effect production next year.

  • Reply to

    $2.85 close would be nice

    by argyle46 Oct 10, 2014 12:35 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 20, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    In 2008, FPP went from $1 to $8 in about 3-4 months. After the last market correction in 2011, it went from $1.70 to $6.00 in about 6 months. Much depends on how quickly oil prices recover, if they recover any time soon. Right now, a global recession is starting to be priced into oil but we've seen these headlines before and it turned out not to be a slowdown at all.

    How's that CPST working out for ya?

  • argyle46 by argyle46 Oct 20, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    It was just reported that hedge funds have taken their most bullish positions in coffee in 6 years. While coffee prices have fallen over the past week because much needed rain is on the way to Brazil, this is yet another drought they have endured this year. The damage to 2015 crops is unknown but people are starting to look to the history books for other disastrous years to the coffee crops.

    I'm still curious why the CEO just bought 10,000 shares last week, the first time he's bought since 2005....especially since he divested shares earlier this year.

    Hedge funds know much higher coffee prices are coming. Andrew Gordon knows something good for JVA is coming. This is a great time and price to accumulate JVA.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Oct 16, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    You'll see. VXX will continue rising for a long time with only minor pullbacks and will go much higher than you expect.

  • Reply to

    Couldn't stand it, sold off final 8K @ $5.9

    by jayhardy Oct 16, 2014 5:02 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Oct 16, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    This strategy too is dangerous. The small cap index had one of it's best day in months today. JVA has a lot of catching up to do with the price of coffee which has risen all along. The market will continue to live in fear of Ebola since the CDC can't even contain it's one and only case in the US.

    If Andrew Gordon bought shares for the first time since 2005, there was probably a darn good reason for it. He divested shares earlier this year (which I still say was tax selling but whatever) and claimed he was diversifying. Now he's buying shares back on the open market? That doesn't make sense unless he knows something really good is about happen. The other Gordon brother was always a good indicator when he buys, Andrew might be an even better one. All it will take is one blowout quarter and continued high coffee prices and we all know what JVA can do. I wouldn't be flipping shares now for pennies with the real prospects of double-digits possibly coming up.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Oct 16, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    That said, the market pundits will do things like they did today and let the market rise sharply, then slowly tank it again to knock the premium out of options. VXX is a hard game to play but with the risk of a major Ebola headline looming every day, it will simply not drop as it has in the past.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Oct 16, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    Unlike every other VXX spike, this time is different. It will remain elevated. It's all about Ebola. The CDC is stoking fear because it could not prevent the first and only incident of Ebola in the US to spread and threaten contagion in multiple states where schools are now even shutting down. They even let an infected nurse fly on a commercial jet after she showed symptoms.

    It will take a long time for fear to go away this time unless somebody comes up with a magical cure or prevention. Any market rise will be muted because everyone knows the next Ebola headline is coming. If the virus mutates and goes airborne which is certainly possible, VXX will spike like a 9/11 event.

JVA
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