The last time JVA went up near 41% in a month was in 2011 when it rose from $4 to $30 in 5 months. Not suggesting anything like that will happen this time, just recalling history and what JVA and it's extremely low float is capable of.
$1.41, up 17% in the past month.
The last time coffee prices rose 17% in a month was in 2011 and 2014. Coffee rose to $3 and $2.20 those 2 times.
JVA rose to $30 (coffee at $3) and $8.50 (coffee at $2.20) when this happened.
JVA's earnings explode higher when coffee prices rise significantly. They make higher margins on their wholesale coffee beans sold, plus their hedging program makes a small fortune and their inventory worth a lot more. In the past, short-term spikes in coffee prices don't amount to much because GMCR cuts back on purchases when prices are too high and rely on their inventory. But still, historically, JVA always goes higher when coffee goes higher.
If coffee ever gets to $3.again JVA will go parabolic again. Not expecting that this time around unless Brazil is attacked by locusts. However, I see both coffee and JVA setting up a repeat of 2014 when JVA headed to $8.50 and coffee went to $2. I'll be ecstatic if that happens and my charts have been showing this setup for a couple of months and everything appears to be on track so far.
JVA was worth $5 before this past quarter's earnings. JVA has been under intense manipulation since July 15-31 last year and started when short interest rose 150% in a 2 week period for no reason. The stock was $5 then and has done nothing but fall for the past 10 months. I have been in this game for a long time, seen a lot of bad stuff, and never seen a stock so blatantly manipulated in my entire life. Almost every day, JVA got slammed the final 10 minutes into the closing bell and always had a downtick exactly at 4:00:00. I've seen similar action before with other low float low caps and it has always resulted in a company buyout. Anyway, for that reason, JVA was significantly underpriced since July of last year and finally they have taken the chains off. It should definitely be $5+ with the new Walmart business firing up this month.
The yahoo financials haven't been updated. JVA has 4 straight profitable quarters and the last quarter which doesn't appear yet on Yahoo is almost double the net income of the previous quarter. You are using old information and they've made about $1.6 million in the padt year on extremely low coffee prices which hurt margins...and coffee is rebounding fast so earnings outlook already improving nect quarter. Not to mention JVA about to be sold in 2,000 more stores including Walmart later this month. JVA's price can go as high as the market maker wants it to go because short sellers are trapped.
Coffee prices are up 7% last 2 days. Higher prices will yield a hefty hedging increase next quarter if prices go where I think they are headed.
The MM can make this do whatever he wants on Monday. Who knows how much of the 6.9 mil shares traded of a 6.1 mil share company was institutional. He can take it back to $6 in an instant and cause a massive short squeeze or drop it to $4 and pick up a ton of shares for himself. In my view, the downside risk is very limited and plenty of upside. The Walmart deal and addition of selling higher margin products o 2,000 stores starting this summer puts a floor underneat the stock. He could make it go much higher than $6 as well because the shorts will be piling in on the way up and he could keep raising the price fueling it higher.
I doubt he will superspike it but anyone that was here in 2011 knows the stock went from $4 to $28 in 4 months.
JVA had .14 for Q1 minus commodity loss in their investor presentation slides this past week. i know Walmart squeezes retailers but they will still make higher margins than selling to GMCR when coffee is already so cheap.
Q1 was .14 without the commodity loss. And the lower business by GMCR is actually improving the quality of sales, as their margins are considerably higher. Not factored into the stock price is that JVA's products will be sold in almost 2,000 additional stores beginning this summer, including 400+ Walmart's later this month. With the higher margins that business will bring, earnings prospects now improved from here on out.
This is longer term but the price of coffee is now set to soar. The US dollar is suddenly complete garbage in the wake of the worst jobs report since 2010. The Fed will now not raise rates until after the November elections which will boost gold, oil and commodities across the board. Check out the chart of DBA if you don't believe me, the price of coffee and JVA will rise too.
Institutional buying picked up last quarter. Then 2 weeks ago, short interest mysteriously dropped to the lowest level I could find from readily accessible records. A big move was being telegraphed.
Coffee prices also are breaking through on my long term charts. Both coffee and JVA are going to surge from here on out. It may not happen immediately but the game changed on Friday. Now is JVA's time....finally.
JVA had a $500k loss on hedging in Q1 or else earnings would have been $0.14. Yet this excellent report was totally ignored.
If your theory is correct, that means investors should ignore good earnings reports and only focus on bad ones.
I'm guessing you're a Democrat.
People are shorting so they can make this go as high as they want. Half the entire float close to already trading in first 17 minutes. Who knows, this is entireky in the market makers hands but I do know this. Short interest shockinglyndropped to it's lowest level in years a couple of weeks ago so somebody knew this was coming.
Most sites show closing price of $3.77 and no existence of the 468 share trade at 4:00. Weird. I agree, somebody should be looking at these late day trades. I've only told management about it for 10 months. Share price gets slammed at the closing bell almost 50% of the time. JVA is the most blatantly manipulated stock I've seen in all my years as a trader, there's a reason for it but until the criminal is found, we may not know the reasons. If I could post charts here, everybody's mouths would drop to the floor. If you could see the minute by minute trades on a daily basis, everybody here would be shocked and demand an answer. JVA's stock literally falls off a cliff the final 4 minutes of nearly every single trading day. My mother who knows nothing about a chart from a hole in the wall could look at it and see something is criminal.
People were buying JVA stock at $4.70 after earnings three quarters ago, and the last two earnings were three times better than when they were buying at $4.70. Agreed, there's plenty of upside here.
FBI director Comey said that the technology to hack the terrorist's phone only works on an iPhone 5C, the type of phone used by Farook.
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Replace the word Apple with Hillary.
There, that looks much better.
JVA is at the top of a 10 month long downtrend channel. It has been hugging the top for 10 straight trading days. There is resistance at $4 because 1 or 2 people (or more likely the market maker) placed large blocks of shares at exactly $4.
If JVA is to break the 10 month long downtrend, it will take a big volume day to break the $4 wall. Then, my charts say it is off to the races, though one possible retest of the $4 barrier is very possible except then it would be support, not resistance.
Look for breaking above $4 on a very high volume day as confirmation that the 10 month downtrend has finally ended.