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TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation Message Board

argyle46 199 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2014 9:57 AM Member since: Feb 14, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Hey You! Selling 400 @ 5.52

    by van16 Jun 27, 2014 4:03 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    Of the 37,000 shares traded today, 23,000 of them happened in the final hour. Most of that was to the buy side, my chart is showing a noticeable uptick in the accumulation during that hour.

  • Reply to

    Hey You! Selling 400 @ 5.52

    by van16 Jun 27, 2014 4:03 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Better volume today. The "seller" at one point offered 3,600 shares at $5.36 and that was taken out quickly. They kept hitting the bid in the $5.30's all day but the volume picked up and overwhelmed them.

  • Reply to

    An inside look at the manipulation

    by argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:10 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    I rest my case. Someone is he11bent on driving this lower.

  • Reply to

    An inside look at the manipulation

    by argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:10 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    No, and I didn't expect or even want a response due to possibly getting info that wasn't yet public. When I wrote to the CEO of EDAC and told him the same thing, I also did not get a response but the company was sold 6 months after I wrote. In that case, the CEO was 70 years old and he wanted to sell to take care of himself and management and the shareholders didn't get an acceptably high premium. I don't see a similar situation here other than perhaps the family wanting to sell since they own 30% of the company and those shares cannot be sold on the open market due to the tiny volume and float. Due to higher oil prices and imminent higher production, FPP's goal of increasing shareholder value could be on the verge of happening even without a buyout. The daily games I see happening to the stock price recently make me absolutely believe another party is involved here.

  • Reply to

    are we ever gonna cross 7?

    by super.linux Jun 27, 2014 8:46 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Of course. The problem was the stock sold off on June 10th in anticipation of a large hedging loss. Here was the problem with the last earnings statement:

    "At April 30, 2014, the Company held 80 options covering an aggregate of 3,000,000 pounds of green coffee beans at $1.975 per pound. The fair market value of these options, which was obtained from observable market data of similar instruments, was $349,950. "

    At the time this statement came out, coffee was at it's low of $1.65. As I write this, coffee has rebounded to $1.84 (and rising). The "huge hedging loss" that was been priced in due to buying options at $1.975 may turn out not to be a loss at all, or insignificant. And the date these options were held was April 30th and earnings were on June 10th, so there's no telling if JVA still holds these options or bought more at a lower price.

    As the price of coffee has risen from $1.65 to $1.84, JVA's stock price has done nothing so an adjustment to the upside is overdue imo.

  • Reply to

    FPP's turn coming soon

    by argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 8:07 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Depends, the family could be putting pressure to sell the company. Hopefully a second bidder will emerge (if it hasn't already) which would giving FPP some leverage. Given the prospects for the rest of the year, especially Q3-Q4, I'd want to see what earnings were like before selling the company. The stock may be able to hit $6.50 just based on earnings at which point, $8 would be a minimum acceptable offer.

  • Here is a one day, ongoing track of the entity working to lower the stock price. I will update this periodically to show you all what I see every day. The price will be systematically lowered throughout the day.

    Here is the beginning of the manipulation.

    10:09 am: Current price $5.55. Asking price $5.54 (100 shares).

  • PDO was one of the big market gainers yesterday. MXC has been lighting it up recently. People (like me) remember what happened when oil prices rose in 2008 and PDO/MXC/FPP and just about every other smallcap o&g stock went parabolic. As these other plays continue hitting, FPP will come under the radar as investors look for the next one to pop...especially because it is one of the best out of all of them. Any increase in volume will overwhelm the buyout partner that has been trying squash the stock price to negotiate a lower buyout bid.

  • June 25 (Reuters)

    Arabica coffee futures on ICE jumped 4 percent on Wednesday, following a report that one large farm in top grower Brazil was harvesting weak yields after a drought.

    Traders said reports from Brazilian farms, where harvest is in full swing and damage from the January-February drought is becoming better known, are showing many beans did not develop as usual.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jun 25, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    "The 2 months of bullish headlines will come to an end."

    June 25 (Reuters)

    Arabica coffee futures on ICE jumped 4 percent on Wednesday, following a report that one large farm in top grower Brazil was harvesting weak yields after a drought.

  • Reply to

    JO made new high since pullback

    by super.linux Jun 25, 2014 9:43 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 25, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Just the beginning imo. Just like JO just went through 2 months of unabated falling, that is all about to reverse. Chart has finally turned bullish and coffee is going to have a nice long bullish run here. The "hedging loss" that everyone theorized will happen in Q3 and has been priced into JVA will have to be rethought.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    That's by far the lowest the short interest has been in at least a year. It has actually been dropping pretty steadily but percentage-wise, that was a pretty big drop the past 2 weeks. We did see some big blocks buying after the price dropped recently so that could have been short covering. It appears the shorts agree with you, the stock does seem undervalued as the company has concentrated on sustaining profitability and increasing margins. The past 2 quarters were excellent especially considering a rather hostile sales environment starting with extremely low coffee prices that increased as much as 90% in Q2 and buyers stayed on the sidelines during the volatility.

  • Reply to

    Whats up with Oil

    by hauleyray Jun 24, 2014 6:32 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    Apparently the Obama administration has cleared the way for the first exports of US oil beginning in August, eliminating a 40 year ban on selling US crude overseas. That should make US oil prices go higher and Brent lower. The ruling apparently has immediate impact to 2 companies, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD) and Enterprise Product Partners LP and I know PXD stock is jumping in after hours based on the ruling. I'm guessing the jump in oil prices is related to this news.

  • Reply to

    Current price $5.57, ask price $5.47

    by argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 10:13 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Didn't check, it was for 100 shares and the irder was filled (naturally) shortly after i wrote this. This daily manipulation is blatantly obvious. Only other explanation is someone purposely wants to lose money for no reason.

  • Translation: "Yes, I want to purposely lose 2% of my money even though I could get the higher price if I wanted to."

    Reality: "We must purposely keep FPP from going higher to save millions during negotiating a lower buyout price"

  • Reply to

    Let's be realistic Argyle

    by huey_the_hat Jun 17, 2014 11:11 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 23, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    The coffee majors held off on buying due to high prices and that hurt Q2 sales. However, they cannot hold off indefinitely and their inventories are lower as a result. Eventually, the cutback in Q2 sales will show up as increased sales in future quarters and at higher prices as inventories need to be replenished. While it was a negative for Q2, it will be a positive in future quarters.

  • Reply to

    News good

    by van12 Jun 23, 2014 11:40 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 23, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    Many of us believe FPP is in the process of being bought out or taken private. Last year, the CEO died in a tragic car accident. He owned 30% of the company. Due to the low float and volume, his family will never be able to sell that many shares on the open market. As a result, in November 2013, the company hired a financial advisor to evaluate strategic alternatives and enhance shareholder value. That often means a company is putting itself up for sale to the highest bidder. A few months ago, Stephens Inc (the financial advisor) offered a yet-to-be disclosed proposal to the Board of Directors. That is all we were told. It could have been a buyout offer, details have not been made public.

    Last year, I was involved with another small float company that was bought out. Their stock price was purposely manipulated to hold it lower. I am 100% certain of this. The reason somebody was holding it lower was to save about $10-20 million on the buyout price so it was worth it for them to spend a few million placing blocking trades at lower prices while they negotiated terms. Legal? Yes, probably. Ethical? No. I even wrote to the CEO of the company and told him about this manipulation. 6 months later, the company was bought out at a stock price that the shareholders were not happy with, it should have been a lot more. My theory is that the same thing is now happening to FPP. This morning was a perfect example. The stock was trading at $5.54, and then someone offered 2,400 shares at a lower price of $5.45. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING REPEATEDLY. SOMEONE IS CONSTANTLY OFFERING SHARES FOR SALE AT BELOW MARKET PRICES. Why would they do this? Because if they save $1-2 dollars on the eventual buyout price, they will save themselves $7-14 million dollars.

    Because the former CEO's family inherited 30% of the company, and these shares cannot be sold on the open market, I believe they retained Stephens Inc to sell the company and that a sale is close to happening

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jun 22, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    I suspect, knowing the way the markets are rigged and how coffee prices are now poised to go higher, that decidedly bearish headlines will start coming out next week about lowered coffee production estimates or other problems. The 2 months of bullish headlines will come to an end. Let's see if that happens.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jun 21, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    If SBUX is raising prices, they may be ready to buy more coffee to refill their diminishing inventory before coffee prices go higher. As I noted last week when coffee was $1.65, the coffee chart is turning bullish Coffee is now $1.75, up 4% on Friday alone and here's one of Friday's headlines:

    "ICE arabica coffee futures rallied the most in over a month on Friday on bullish technical signals and forecasts of cool weather in Brazil that heightened concerns of potential crop damage in the world's top producer."

    I expect to see a significant rally in coffee prices because, as the article stated and I saw happening last week, the coffee chart is finally turning bullish after a 2 month slide. In fact, I would not be surprised to see coffee prices stage a major rally beginning as early as next week, continuing to build on Friday's action, as the chart has already turned bullish.

  • Reply to

    XEC/FPP

    by hauleyray Jun 20, 2014 11:50 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 20, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    Not sure if it's the same well that you're thinking of but the 2 times investors asked about that agreement, we were told that their were rig priority issues and it would happen eventually but no timeframe was given.

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