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TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation Message Board

argyle46 194 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Feb 14, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Argyle

    by prospern23 Jul 2, 2014 8:22 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 2, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    Don't know. The price has flatlined for the past 2 weeks. MACD is almost exactly at 0 which means a big swing can happen at any moment in either direction. Charts aren't giving any clear indications.

    From the fundamental side, I know that GMCR's business has been rocketing lately, their K-cup sales have increased significantly this quarter. 60% of JVA's sales come from GMCR and we know that GMCR held off purchasing coffee last quarter because the price of coffee soared. There is a possibility for a significant increase in sales in the coming quarter or subsequent quarters as GMCR will have to buy more to replenish their diminished inventories.

  • Seller tried to slam the price down seconds before the closing bell by placing a sell order at $5.45, even though the price had been higher than that the entire day.

    One of two things is happening.

    Either:

    1. FPP has a shareholder that is purposely trying to lose money multiple times every single day, or

    2. An entity is offering shares at reduced prices to keep FPP's stock price from rising. This entity is negotiating a buyout offer with FPP and the lower they can make the stock price, they can save millions of dollars with a lower buyout offer.

    The buyout offer will still be a premium to today's price, probably in the neighborhood of $7.15 per share. If the price of FPP were allowed to rise even $1/share, it would cost them probably an additional $6-7 million to buy the company. That is why it is worth it to them to lose thousands if not tens of thousands taking a daily loss by purposely selling shares lower than the market is willing to pay for them.

    The clock is ticking on a buyout offer (or to be taken private). This has been happening for at least a couple of months. There's no telling when, or even if, a deal will be struck. I have seen this almost exact scenario happen once before and the company who's price was being squashed was bought out at a 30% premium to it's squashed trading price. That is, in my strongest opinion, exactly what is happening right now.

  • Reply to

    An inside look at the manipulation

    by argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:10 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 1, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Correct. Wouldn't matter if the market goes up 1000 points in a day, FPP is still being held systematically held down. They continue to lower and lower the asking price. It's ok as long as Roger et al don't cave to a lowball bid. We know that production is rising.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jun 30, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    The last 3 years, AAPL began doing very well on July 1st, the first day of the 3rd quarter. I would look for a strong day from AAPL tomorrow. It dropped into the close today but today is the final day of Q2 so hedge funds and other institutions could have closed out positions late in the day to lock in gains. I would not be surprised to see AAPL close above $94 tomorrow.

  • The past 4 years, between July 1st and the October announcement of the new items for Christmas, AAPL goes up an average of 30%.

    July-Oct 2013 $55-$75 +36%
    July-Oct 2012 $80-$97 +21%
    July-Oct 2011 $45-$58 +28%
    July-Oct 2010 $35-$44 +25%

    I figure AAPL will be $119 around October 9th this year. The iPhone 6 will clearly be the biggest launch in it's history, a 30% rise between now and the product announcement in October is average.

  • Reply to

    Hey You! Selling 400 @ 5.52

    by van16 Jun 27, 2014 4:03 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    Of the 37,000 shares traded today, 23,000 of them happened in the final hour. Most of that was to the buy side, my chart is showing a noticeable uptick in the accumulation during that hour.

  • Reply to

    Hey You! Selling 400 @ 5.52

    by van16 Jun 27, 2014 4:03 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Better volume today. The "seller" at one point offered 3,600 shares at $5.36 and that was taken out quickly. They kept hitting the bid in the $5.30's all day but the volume picked up and overwhelmed them.

  • Reply to

    An inside look at the manipulation

    by argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:10 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    I rest my case. Someone is he11bent on driving this lower.

  • Reply to

    An inside look at the manipulation

    by argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:10 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    No, and I didn't expect or even want a response due to possibly getting info that wasn't yet public. When I wrote to the CEO of EDAC and told him the same thing, I also did not get a response but the company was sold 6 months after I wrote. In that case, the CEO was 70 years old and he wanted to sell to take care of himself and management and the shareholders didn't get an acceptably high premium. I don't see a similar situation here other than perhaps the family wanting to sell since they own 30% of the company and those shares cannot be sold on the open market due to the tiny volume and float. Due to higher oil prices and imminent higher production, FPP's goal of increasing shareholder value could be on the verge of happening even without a buyout. The daily games I see happening to the stock price recently make me absolutely believe another party is involved here.

  • Reply to

    are we ever gonna cross 7?

    by super.linux Jun 27, 2014 8:46 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Of course. The problem was the stock sold off on June 10th in anticipation of a large hedging loss. Here was the problem with the last earnings statement:

    "At April 30, 2014, the Company held 80 options covering an aggregate of 3,000,000 pounds of green coffee beans at $1.975 per pound. The fair market value of these options, which was obtained from observable market data of similar instruments, was $349,950. "

    At the time this statement came out, coffee was at it's low of $1.65. As I write this, coffee has rebounded to $1.84 (and rising). The "huge hedging loss" that was been priced in due to buying options at $1.975 may turn out not to be a loss at all, or insignificant. And the date these options were held was April 30th and earnings were on June 10th, so there's no telling if JVA still holds these options or bought more at a lower price.

    As the price of coffee has risen from $1.65 to $1.84, JVA's stock price has done nothing so an adjustment to the upside is overdue imo.

  • Reply to

    FPP's turn coming soon

    by argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 8:07 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 27, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Depends, the family could be putting pressure to sell the company. Hopefully a second bidder will emerge (if it hasn't already) which would giving FPP some leverage. Given the prospects for the rest of the year, especially Q3-Q4, I'd want to see what earnings were like before selling the company. The stock may be able to hit $6.50 just based on earnings at which point, $8 would be a minimum acceptable offer.

  • Here is a one day, ongoing track of the entity working to lower the stock price. I will update this periodically to show you all what I see every day. The price will be systematically lowered throughout the day.

    Here is the beginning of the manipulation.

    10:09 am: Current price $5.55. Asking price $5.54 (100 shares).

  • PDO was one of the big market gainers yesterday. MXC has been lighting it up recently. People (like me) remember what happened when oil prices rose in 2008 and PDO/MXC/FPP and just about every other smallcap o&g stock went parabolic. As these other plays continue hitting, FPP will come under the radar as investors look for the next one to pop...especially because it is one of the best out of all of them. Any increase in volume will overwhelm the buyout partner that has been trying squash the stock price to negotiate a lower buyout bid.

  • June 25 (Reuters)

    Arabica coffee futures on ICE jumped 4 percent on Wednesday, following a report that one large farm in top grower Brazil was harvesting weak yields after a drought.

    Traders said reports from Brazilian farms, where harvest is in full swing and damage from the January-February drought is becoming better known, are showing many beans did not develop as usual.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jun 25, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    "The 2 months of bullish headlines will come to an end."

    June 25 (Reuters)

    Arabica coffee futures on ICE jumped 4 percent on Wednesday, following a report that one large farm in top grower Brazil was harvesting weak yields after a drought.

  • Reply to

    JO made new high since pullback

    by super.linux Jun 25, 2014 9:43 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 25, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Just the beginning imo. Just like JO just went through 2 months of unabated falling, that is all about to reverse. Chart has finally turned bullish and coffee is going to have a nice long bullish run here. The "hedging loss" that everyone theorized will happen in Q3 and has been priced into JVA will have to be rethought.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    That's by far the lowest the short interest has been in at least a year. It has actually been dropping pretty steadily but percentage-wise, that was a pretty big drop the past 2 weeks. We did see some big blocks buying after the price dropped recently so that could have been short covering. It appears the shorts agree with you, the stock does seem undervalued as the company has concentrated on sustaining profitability and increasing margins. The past 2 quarters were excellent especially considering a rather hostile sales environment starting with extremely low coffee prices that increased as much as 90% in Q2 and buyers stayed on the sidelines during the volatility.

  • Reply to

    Whats up with Oil

    by hauleyray Jun 24, 2014 6:32 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    Apparently the Obama administration has cleared the way for the first exports of US oil beginning in August, eliminating a 40 year ban on selling US crude overseas. That should make US oil prices go higher and Brent lower. The ruling apparently has immediate impact to 2 companies, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD) and Enterprise Product Partners LP and I know PXD stock is jumping in after hours based on the ruling. I'm guessing the jump in oil prices is related to this news.

  • Reply to

    Current price $5.57, ask price $5.47

    by argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 10:13 AM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jun 24, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Didn't check, it was for 100 shares and the irder was filled (naturally) shortly after i wrote this. This daily manipulation is blatantly obvious. Only other explanation is someone purposely wants to lose money for no reason.

  • Translation: "Yes, I want to purposely lose 2% of my money even though I could get the higher price if I wanted to."

    Reality: "We must purposely keep FPP from going higher to save millions during negotiating a lower buyout price"

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