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DryShips, Inc. Message Board

argyle46 200 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Feb 14, 2005
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  • argyle46 argyle46 19 hours ago Flag

    To the person that gave me a thumbs down. Look at the facts. The stock was trading around $5.19 for hours into the close. Why all of a sudden would someone place a market order to sell 100 shares at the close? We already talked about this.

    There's only 3 reasons why you would place a market order to sell when you could have sold the entire day at higher prices:

    1. You are purposely trying to lose money
    2. You are shorting the stock
    3. You are about to make a bid to buy the company and a lower stock price saves you millions of dollars buying the company

    We already know the short interest is very low. Nobody is making any money shorting this stock. That leaves choices #1 and #3. Unless we have an idiot in our midst, nobody in their right mind would be selling at below market prices on purpose because that means they would be trying to lose money on purpose.

    I still maintain that what is happening is #3. I have seen this happen in a low float stock one other time and that company WAS bought out just like I had suspected was happening all along.

    Look at the final trades and somebody purposely placed a trade to make the stock finish the day as low as possible.

  • to drive the price down to $5.10. I don't care what anybody says, this stock is still under fierce manipulation. Just because it stopped for 3 days last week, it's started again. I saw it happening all day with a big exclamation #$%$ at the close.

  • Reply to

    Level 2

    by argyle46 21 hours ago
    argyle46 argyle46 20 hours ago Flag

    And yes, the bid was dropped from $5.23 to currently now $5.16. This is the same @#$% we've seen for the past 2 months but stopped for 3 days. Now it's back again.

    Current price $5.19. Ask dropped to $5.16. This has been the pattern for months and I hate it.

  • Interesting to note that there's 600 shares for sale at $5.18 and nothing after that until $5.59.

  • I want to see today's close but it appears that a strong bottom is being set. Bulls are becoming bearish because the stock has fallen for 6-7 straight weeks with a big purge from a panicked seller. Had JVA risen 22% since their last earnings report instead of fallen that much, everyone would be jumping on the bandwagon. This company is extremely undervalued at the moment and the last 2 profitable quarters have been completely dismissed. It would be nice to see some insiders buying or the stock buyback kick in at these prices. In any case, the Fibonacci followers have seen a retracement hitting the bottom at the exact price levels they are looking for which is a buy signal for them. Any increase in the stock price from here and they'll start buying too.

  • Reply to

    JVA Buyback

    by jasvirdi1 Jul 20, 2014 1:08 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 21, 2014 12:17 AM Flag

    The CEO sold shares on April 9 and 10, and as of April 30, the company did not repurchase any. I still maintain that the timing of the CEO's sold shares could have been done to raise money to pay taxes. April 10th was the last day shares could be sold this year and settle in time to pay taxes by the April 15th deadline. I was forced to sell shares on April 10th of companies I did not want to sell to raise cash to pay my taxes, and this is the same day that Andrew Gordon sold. It will never be divulged why he sold but I honestly believe he did it for the same reasons I did. To pay capital gains taxes.

  • Reply to

    Jay Carney in PR ??!!

    by gonegt Jul 20, 2014 4:56 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 20, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Who is AAPL's PR person now? All I know is whenever Tim Cook speaks, the stock usually goes down. A professional PR person would be a vast improvement, even if it is Carney. He definitely knows how to work the media.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jul 20, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    Most rumors have had the 4.7" model ready in September and the 5.5" model delayed. If the 5.5" model will start mass production in August and be ready for sale by Black Friday at the latest, I would say that's a positive. Unfortunately we won't know for sure until September when the official announcement is made.

  • argyle46 argyle46 Jul 20, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    I doubt it. My guess is AAPL is back to it's old ways and the more people buy the stock, the lower it goes. It will explode eventually, probably into the earnings announcement after the Holidays but for now, I see it going sideways to drifting lower. Even an awesome earnings report this week will be a sell the news type event. Why? The manipulators appear to be back and want to drive the price down for a few months before letting it go higher again.

  • Reply to

    JVA Buyback

    by jasvirdi1 Jul 20, 2014 1:08 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 20, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    As of April 30, 2014, they did not repurchase shares from the authorized $1 million buyback approvied in January 2014. The next update on whether any shares have been repurchased will likely be announced mid September.

    If the company was on it's toes, it would have repurchased shares right after the Malaysian plane crash when an investor panicked and sold 1% of the company (60k shares minimum) as a market order causing a 12% decline in a few minutes.

  • Reply to

    ROYL vs FPP

    by argyle46 Jul 16, 2014 2:10 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 19, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    I'm finding the new leadership to be pretty forthcoming and to the point as long as you ask them the right question. I have followed ROYL in the past and their updates never pan out as promised. They have always been a pump and dump operation in the past. No reason to believe it's any different this time until I'm proven wrong. We've seen FPP's stock go up in the past on news not yet released to the public but this is different leadership so I'm giving them the benefit of a doubt. It is frustrating that they won't give us flow data from the new wells for what they're stating as competitive reasons. We'll have to wait another 3 weeks to see what's what, but my gut feeling is Q3 and Q4 will be the bigger quarters and Q2 will be better than Q1 but not as good as the rest of the year.

  • Reply to

    $jva

    by prospern23 Jul 17, 2014 8:10 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 18, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    The price of coffee hit a 7 year low in Q4 2013. The company had problems last year dealing with the continued freefall of the price of coffee. They said in January that those problems were behind them and backed it up with a share repurchase program. Since then, they have had 2 solidly profitable quarters in a row that has exceeded most people's expectations. The stock has fallen 33% since then for absolutely no reason other than people pricing in failure that so far hasn't happened this year. Yes, sales were down in Q2 when rose from $1.25 to $2.10 in a few months time and the majors held off their purchases. They could easily be buying more than normal this quarter to rebuild their inventories and sales could come in higher than expectations.

    One more good quarter like the last 2 and the stock price will rebound sharply. It is already priced for failure while JVA has delivered excellent earnings all year.

  • Reply to

    $jva

    by prospern23 Jul 17, 2014 8:10 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 18, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    So essentially you're saying if coffee prices stay high, companies like Starbucks and Green Mountain will run out of coffee because they refuse to buy at higher prices. Brilliant.

  • Reply to

    $jva

    by prospern23 Jul 17, 2014 8:10 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    Correction, Q3 earnings won't be until mid September as the quarter doesn't end until July 31.

  • Reply to

    $jva

    by prospern23 Jul 17, 2014 8:10 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 8:45 PM Flag

    I read yesterday that their best estimates now are for a 25% shortfall in Brazil production this year, but it's hard to pinpoint because not all areas were affected similarly. The harvest is still in full swing. My view hasn't changed. There's not a lot of information coming out of the company so there's really no basis to change my mind. Generally, I expect sales to increase this quarter since the majors held off on buying in Q2 due to very volatile and high coffee prices. They will have to replenish their inventories at some point. I expect the higher sales to be offset by a possible hedging loss since JVA bought about 3 million pounds of coffee around $1.90 during Q2.

    This quarter is an easy comparison year-over-year since they had a $2.1 million loss Q3 a year ago. If JVA can maintain a profit similar to the last 2 quarters, the P/E will instantly drop to around 10 after Q3 results and potentially lower than that during Q4.

    This selloff is ridiculous. JVA is very oversold right now. I am convinced today's drop was due to a panicked investor cashing out instantly and using that money to bet against a potential terrorist attack the instant he heard about it. People still remember what happened to the markets after 9/11 and this trader made a very rash and sudden move based on a headline without knowing the details. Unfortunately, for JVA that doesn't mean an instant reversal is imminent. We will have to wait until August 15th to see earnings. It would be nice to hear some communication from the Gordons prior to that.

  • The Malaysian Airlines crash over the Ukraine hit the newswires at 11:30 AM. The 60,000 shares sold at market prices happened to JVA at 11:31 AM.

    It is entirely possible, and I would say likely, that an investor of JVA heard about the Malaysian crash, sold his shares of JVA at any cost and bought VXX options since they knew volatility would spike. Which is what is happening, I own VXX options and they are up almost 200% today alone...most of that since the crash.

    The investor may have decided to take a 10% loss with JVA knowing he could make a lot more money betting against the market.

    The crash hit newswires at 11:30 AM and the TRADE happened in JVA at 11:31 AM.

    This tells me this trade had nothing to do with JVA and everything to do with somebody scrambling to raise money as fast as possible to buy options against the market and/or volatility.

  • Reply to

    did Gordon Brothers just dumped 60,000 shares?

    by josfnpbch Jul 17, 2014 3:15 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    Of course not. First, they would have to file if they sold. Second, all the shares were sold in a single second which meant some idiot mistakenly placed a market order and made a serious error. Third, I called investor relations and they said the CEO was as shocked as the rest of us as to what happened.

  • Reply to

    This might have been a huge trading mistake

    by argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 12:34 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Correction to above == 11:31 AM EST, not $11.31

  • Reply to

    CEO SAYS

    by argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 1:00 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    Companies are contacted by the SEC all the time if there is what is perceived to be highly unusual trading that is not accompanied by any news. The company could issue a press release saying that their policy is not to comment on unusual trading. Check out the newswire on MXC on June 11, 2014 to see exactly such a statement (although in this instance the unusual trading was higher).

    Typically, a company would issue a PR stating that they are unaware of any material events that have happened to the company that would warrant such trading. EIther the SEC or the NYSE would contact the company if they deemed this event unusual. But the company could issue the statement regardless of whether they are contacted or not.

  • Reply to

    CEO SAYS

    by argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 1:00 PM
    argyle46 argyle46 Jul 17, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    I also urged the CEO to make a public statement that they are unaware of any material action within the company that warranted this unusual trading action. Whether he chooses to do so or not remains to be seen.

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